Time-series model for vehicle speeds

This paper presents a time-series model for the spot speeds of vehicles on a road section. Based on time-series analysis techniques, the model incorporates information on the extent of existing dependency between the speeds of successive vehicles. The model for the data is chosen while relying heavily on the data, and thus emphasis is given to their special characteristics. The advantages of using the model are examined with regard to the relative speed of two successive vehicles along a road section. The results are compared with those obtained by using a model of independent observations; fewer errors are obtained with the time-series model. Therefore, it is concluded that the sequence of speed observations contains valuable information which should be incorporated into speed models.     

Further evidence on the temporal stability of disaggregate travel demand models

Current evidence on the transferability of disaggregate travel demand models is inconclusive. Adding to this body of research, the present analysis focuses upon the temporal characteristics of work trip behavior in the San Francisco Bay Area. Using before and after data sets associated with the BART Impact Travel Study, multinomial logit models of work trip modal choice are estimated. The results indicate that the general form and the coefficient estimates of a pre BART model are transferable in time. Moreover, when updated to reflect BART's presence, the model's predictive success and its implied elasticity measures are generally accurate, relative to those implied by reestimating the entire model on post BART data. Finally, as economic theory would predict, elasticity measures of the service related variables were found to increase over time.     

Global cutting-path optimization considering the minimum heat effect with microgenetic algorithms

This article considers microgenetic algorithms (GAs), which explore in a small population with a few genetic operators, for cutting-path optimization problems. The major difference between GAs and simple genetic algorithms (SGAs) is how to make a reproductive plan for an improved searching technique because of population choice. It is shown that GAs implementation reaches the near-optimal region much earlier than the SGAs approach, and the GAs give a better solution than simulated annealing (SA). The main objective was to determine what temperature distribution can be obtained from the solution of a travelling distributed heat source. The solution of the travelling heat source on nested raw plate provides information about the vertices of each nested part of the raw plate. From the fact that the initial temperature at a piercing point strongly depends on the heat flow which stems from the previous cutting contour, the temperature of all piercing points must be lower than the critical temperature after each cutting of the components of a part. The critical temperature is identified as the mechanical melting temperature of steels. A heuristic back-tracking method is introduced to find the near-optimum cutting path considering the minimum heat effect on deformation. The heuristic back-tracking method is incorporated with the GAs.     

Roll Dynamics of Commercial Vehicles

An analytical model is developed here for studying the roll dynamics of commercial vehicles. Large displacements and rotations are accounted for in this nonlinear model so that it can be used for the study of roll dynamics well beyond the limits of wheel lift-off. The model is used to illustrate some of the dynamic phenomena in vehicle rollover, especially the interactive coupling between the roll and the vertical modes of motion. The influence of suspension backlash on rollover resistance is demonstrated, and the phenomenon of roll motion resonance is illustrated to suggest new means for evaluating vehicle rollover sensitivity.     

The Demise of a Tropical Coastal Lagoon as Breeding Habitat for Ground-Nesting Waterbirds: Unintended,but Anticipated Consequences of Development

Laguna Cuyutlán (Colima, Mexico), an Important Bird Area, used to provide breeding habitat for ground-nesting waterbirds. During 2014 and 2015, nesting efforts of laughing gull, black skimmer, and royal, gull-billed and Forster's terns failed almost completely due to inundation, while least terns and snowy plovers fared the same during 2014. No anomalies in rainfall, tidal level, or coseismic subsidence explained such failure. Rather, the inundations were due to the enlarging of Canal Tepalcates that connects the lagoon with the sea, which was widened from 100 to 300 m and dredged to 17-m deep. Before this, the hydrodynamics were regulated by evaporation and runoff. Now, increased seawater volumes dominate the basin's hydrodynamics. The failure of Laguna Cuyutlán as a breeding habitat for these birds is an important threat for these species, as this lagoon held one of the < 20 colonies known for several of these species along the western coast of North and Central America. Documenting this demise of Laguna Cuyutlán for ground-nesting waterbirds transcends the regional scale as it emphasizes the little consideration still given to biodiversity vs. economic development, and is a warning for coastal projects in other developing areas of the world.     

Estimating travel time functions for urban roads: options and issues

Travel time functions specify the relationship between the travel time on a road and the volume of traffic on the road. Until recently, the parameters of travel time functions were rarely estimated in practice; however, a compelling case can be made for the empirical examination of these functions. This paper reviews, and qualitatively evaluates, a range of options for developing a set of travel time functions. A hierarchy of travel time functions is defined based on four levels of network detail: area, corridor, route and link. This hierarchy is illustrated by considering the development of travel time functions for Adelaide. Alternative sources of data for estimating travel time functions are identified.

In general, the costs and benefits increase as the travel time functions are estimated at finer levels of network detail. The costs of developing travel time functions include data acquisition costs and analysis costs. The benefits include the potential for reducing prediction errors, the degree of application flexibility and the policy sensitivity of the travel time functions.     

Model-based analysis of the mechanical subsystem of an air brake system

Most commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks use an air brake system, often equipped with an S-cam drum brake, to reduce their speed and/or to stop. With a drum brake system, the clearance between the brake shoe/pad and the brake drum may increase because of various reasons such as wearing of the brake shoe and/or brake drum and drum expansion caused by high heat generation during the braking process. Hence, to ensure proper functioning of the brake system, it is essential that the clearance between the brake shoe and the brake drum is monitored. In this paper, we present a mathematical model for the mechanical subsystem of the air brake system that can be used to monitor this clearance. This mathematical model correlates the push rod stroke transients and the brake chamber pressure transients. A kinematic analysis and a dynamic analysis of the mechanical subsystem of the air brake system were performed, and the results are corroborated with experimental data.