Signalized intersections with variable flow rates: I analysis and simulation

One of the most common measures of signalized intersection operation is the amount of delay a vehicle incurs while passing through the intersection. Traditional models for estimating vehicle delay at intersections generally assume fixed signal timing and uniform arrival rates for vehicles approaching the intersection. One would expect that highly variable arrival rates would result in much longer delays than uniform arrival rates of the same average magnitude. Furthermore, one might expect that signal timing that is adjusted according to traffic volume would result in lower delay signal when variations in flow warrant such adjustable timing. This paper attempts to test several hypotheses concerning the effects of variable traffic arrival rates and adjusted signal timing through the use of simulation. The simulation results corroborate the hypothesis concerning the effect of varying arrival rates. As the variance of the arrival rate over time increases, the average delay per vehicle also increases. Signal timing adjustments based on traffic appear to decrease delay when flow rates vary greatly. As flow variations stabilize, the benefits of signal adjustments tend to diminish.     

An analysis of elevator operation in moderate height buildings—I: A single elevator

Approximate analytic methods are used to describe how the equilibrium trip time of an elevator depends upon the physical characteristics of the elevator, the passenger demand, and possible strategies of operation. The analysis is directed particularly toward elevators in buildings of moderate height (10–15 floors) at traffic levels such that the elevator is seldom idle or fully loaded. Part I describes the model and the general method for estimating means and variances of trip time if a group of floors is served by only one elevator and passenger arrivals define a homogeneous Poisson process.     

Application of a validated primary production model (BLOOM) as a screening tool for marine, coastal and transitional waters

In order to manage aquatic systems, it is necessary to apply methods relating the environmental variables and system-state parameters with external factors that affect the system. External factors can be natural (i.e. the movement of water) or partly-anthropogenic (i.e. nutrient loads). In addition to the national authorities, who have been implementing environmental policies for several decades, the EU is presently implementing the Water Framework Directive (WFD) aimed at establishing a new set of standards for the ecological and water quality of water systems. Among these are the phytoplankton biomass and composition. Phytoplankton affects turbidity, oxygen depletion, total productivity of the system and the occurrence of (harmful) algal blooms. A range of methods is available to relate phytoplankton to the controlling environmental conditions. Among these are statistical relations for instance of the Vollenweider type as well as deterministic simulation models. At the end of the 1970s, a generic deterministic phytoplankton module called BLOOM was developed, which has since been applied to a wide range of fresh water and marine systems. Here we test the applicability of this model as a screening tool for coastal waters. We conclude that the model is able to reproduce observed chlorophyll levels adequately under a wide range of conditions. Subsequently the model is applied to demonstrate the potential impacts of reductions in nitrogen, phosphorus or both nutrients simultaneously. Depending on which factors are initially controlling, the impacts of these reductions vary considerably both between locations and during the season. While this type of application lacks explicit relations between nutrient concentrations and external loadings, it does consider a number of relevant conditions in a consistent way and requires remarkably little data and effort. It is therefore a valuable screening tool.     

The importance of attitudes in the decision to use mass transit

This paper reports the results of tests of the hypotheses that attitudinal variables are important in mode choice decisions and that they can significantly increase the explanatory power of network-based mode choice models. Conflicts between the results of previous work by Lovelock and Johnson are resolved by this study. Attitudinal items used by Johnson and by Lovelock in separate studies in the San Francisco Bay area were included in a survey of Chapel Hill households. Tests of the incremental explanatory power of the attitudinal variables in mode choice models confirm that the items used by Johnson do not contribute to the explanatory power of models using network time and cost data. Similar tests showed that Lovelock's attitudinal items do significantly increase the predictive ability of the models. The conflicting results of these previous studies are therefore due to the content of the items. Attitudinal data, including both attitude items and measures of perceptions of system attributes, do enhance the predictive power of models involving network data.This research was supported by a grant from the Urban Mass Transportation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C.     

The U.S.S.R.: Ocean Use and Ocean Law

This paper is an attempt to illustrate the stance of the Soviet Union in the law of the sea debate in the light of Soviet ocean activities. The paper has two sections. First, it examines the range of Soviet ocean activities. The considerable extent of Soviet ocean use underscores the importance which the Soviet Union places on the law of the sea debate and its consequent active participation in the process of international negotiation. Second, the paper considers the published record of the Soviet Union in the United Nations seabed debate. In seven years of debate the United Nations General Assembly and the Ad Hoc and permanent Seabed Commities and sub-Commities have generated a considerable body of documantation reflecting the public policy of over one hundred States concerning the law of the sea. Soviet expressions of opinion alone cover more than five hundred pages of documentation. Specific Soviet positions can be considered within two ganeral preferences: the protection of traditional freedoms of the high seas and opposition to ocean control by either coastal States or by an independent international ocean authority. The paper shows how these preferences and the specific Soviet negotiating positions defend and promote the maritime interests of the Soviet Union.     

The application of cost-benefit analysis to transport investment projects in Britain

This paper explains the need for the application of cost-benefit analysis to the evaluation of alternative projects for investment in the transport field and outlines briefly the historical development of the technique. The results of a comparative survey of a number of cost-benefit studies which have been carried out in Britain and some conclusions as to their thoroughness and comprehensiveness (or otherwise) are presented. The article concludes with a number of specific and detailed recommendations to remedy apparent methodological weaknesses. Six of these recommendations seem to merit particular attention:

1. The viewpoint of most studies should be extended so as to avoid confinement, for example, within an arbitrary local government boundary, and a wider range of “externalities” should be considered. Intangibles should be included explicitly in all such evaluation exercises.
2. The actual incidence of costs and benefits should be examined in order to indicate the directional impact of the project and its implications in terms of equity. The elimination of transfer payments and double-counting should be postponed until the latest possible stage in the evaluation.
3. Equity considerations should be investigated in any transportation plan, since most projects have considerable equity implications for particular areas or socio-economic groups.
4. Discounted cash flow techniques, which are still used only in a minority of transportation studies, should become standard practice. Most evaluations are based on a single-year rate of return, or at best on simple trend forecasting. More resources should be devoted to proper evaluation of alternative plans which give due importance to the cost and benefit streams through time.
5. Sensitivity analysis should be used in all transportation evaluations. Knowledge of the impact of different assignments, shadow prices, and discount rates are essential information for any decisionmaker.
6. Last, but not least, much greater communication should exist between analyst and decisionmaker than has existed in the past.

     

Freight transport demand revisited: A microeconomic view of multimodal, multicharacteristic service uncertainty and the demand for freight transport

This paper provides a unifying framework for micro-based models of freight transport demand. An expected utility of profits model is posed that clarifies the conditions under which a system of equations (continuous) regression model should be used as opposed to the conditions that make a quantal choice model appropriate. The model also indicates the nature of subjective data that is necessary for estimating demand. In general, the conditions that give rise to the appropriate use of a quantal choice model imply that the needed subjective information is completely contained in the subjective probability distributions on the service characteristics; the utility function itself is irrelevant.     

Simultaneous optimization of transit line configuration and passenger line assignment

Passenger transportation in most large cities relies on an efficient mass transit system, whose line configuration has direct impacts on the system operating cost, passenger travel time and line transfers. Unfortunately, the interplay between transit line configuration and passenger line assignment has been largely ignored in the literature. This paper presents a model for simultaneous optimization of transit line configuration and passenger line assignment in a general network. The model is formulated as a linear binary integer program and can be solved by the standard branch and bound method. The model is illustrated with a couple of minimum spanning tree networks and a simplified version of the general Hong Kong mass transit railway network.     

Oceanic CO2 uptake and biogeochemical variability during the formation of the Eastern North Atlantic Central water under two contrasting NAO scenarios

Long-term variability of the biogeochemical properties during the formation of central waters in the Eastern North Atlantic were analyzed between 42–47°N and 10–20°W from the dataset gathered during the Galicia VII (GVII) and C. Darwin 58/59 (CD58/59) cruises. These cruises that showed important changes in the thermohaline properties and the nutrient abundance of the upper layers were carried out under contrasting conditions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The different climate forcing led a meridional shift of the transition zone between the formation regions of subpolar and subtropical Eastern North Atlantic Central Water (ENACWp and ENACWt, respectively). This displacement conditioned the presence of each ENACW in the study region and so the thermohaline and biogeochemical properties. The effect of the observed variability at decadal scale on the air–sea CO₂ gradient (ΔfCO₂) and exchange (F_CO2) was analyzed using 1D model approach throughout 11 weekly-steps that simulated the development of a spring bloom during the shoaling of the mixed layer. The outputs of the model showed an intensification of the ocean CO₂ uptake due to higher biological CO₂ drawdown, during positive NAO conditions and its weakening under negative NAO influence.     

A behavioral choice model of the use of car-sharing and ride-sourcing services

There are a number of disruptive mobility services that are increasingly finding their way into the marketplace. Two key examples of such services are car-sharing services and ride-sourcing services. In an effort to better understand the influence of various exogenous socio-economic and demographic variables on the frequency of use of ride-sourcing and car-sharing services, this paper presents a bivariate ordered probit model estimated on a survey data set derived from the 2014–2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study. Model estimation results show that users of these services tend to be young, well-educated, higher-income, working individuals residing in higher-density areas. There are significant interaction effects reflecting the influence of children and the built environment on disruptive mobility service usage. The model developed in this paper provides key insights into factors affecting market penetration of these services, and can be integrated in larger travel forecasting model systems to better predict the adoption and use of mobility-on-demand services.