An application of variance reduction techniques in freeway simulation

Computer simulation models are used in a variety of applications in transportation engineering and have become a prime aid in decision making. The applications range from evaluating traffic control strategies for single intersections to such complex decision processes as evaluating the impact of removing toll facilities at the George Washington Bridge in New York City. While it is widely accepted that simulation offers an unmatchable capability of evaluating alternate control policies, the high variance of the output variable presents a critical problem in such comparative analyses. The simulation models with high output variance must be run longer or replicated many times to achieve a desired precision level, and that corresponds to increased cost of computer resources. This paper describes and illustrates the application of variance reduction concepts that can improve the reliability and efficiency of the simulation experimental process by taking advantage of the simulation model structure. The two variance reduction concepts (common random numbers and antithetic variates) reduce the variance of the output variable by replacing the original sampling procedure with a new procedure that yields the same expected value but with a smaller variance. The application of the variance reduction concept was illustrated using results from experiments with a freeway simulation model. The results indicate that both common random numbers and antithetic variates sampling procedures appreciably reduce the variance of the simulation output measure.     

Roll Dynamics of Commercial Vehicles

An analytical model is developed here for studying the roll dynamics of commercial vehicles. Large displacements and rotations are accounted for in this nonlinear model so that it can be used for the study of roll dynamics well beyond the limits of wheel lift-off. The model is used to illustrate some of the dynamic phenomena in vehicle rollover, especially the interactive coupling between the roll and the vertical modes of motion. The influence of suspension backlash on rollover resistance is demonstrated, and the phenomenon of roll motion resonance is illustrated to suggest new means for evaluating vehicle rollover sensitivity.     

The planning and analysis of a new group rapid transit system: the SkyCabs monobeam system in Auckland

This paper examines a case study of the SkyCabs system as a way to alleviate some of the traffic problems of Auckland, New Zealand. SkyCabs is an elevated two-way monobeam carrying light eight-seater cabs on tracks on each side of the beam, available on demand, providing fast, pollution-free, unimpeded travel above the footpath with panoramic views of the city. The aim of this study is to investigate the attractiveness of implementing the SkyCabs system to and from Auckland central business district (CBD) and Auckland international airport by examining four variables: different routes, different number of stops/stations, different passenger demand levels, and different number of cabs in the system. The analysis utilizes geographical information system and simulation tools for the various scenarios considered. The results show that it is possible to assess the cost–benefit of alternative routes in terms of those four variables and rate of return on investment.     

A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

飞机降落冲击荷载作用下高铁隧道动力响应及疲劳损伤研究北大核心CSCD

针对运营期高铁隧道衬砌结构在飞机降落冲击荷载作用下的动力响应规律及疲劳损伤问题,以成自高铁下穿天府机场东二跑道区间隧道为工程背景,采用有限元分析的方法研究隧道动力响应及疲劳损伤规律。结果表明:B747-400型飞机在粗暴着陆后0.05 s时刻动力载荷达到最大值,约为500 kN;在单次粗暴着陆工况下,拱顶位移和受力最大,位移最大峰值为1.58 mm,拉应力最大峰值为437.79 kPa,压应力最大峰值为556.24 kPa,衬砌结构未出现塑性损伤;飞机荷载长期作用下,随着循环次数的增加,结构损伤部位和程度也随之增加,拱顶损伤最突出,其次为边墙,隧道衬砌在上方飞机长期粗暴着陆作用下的疲劳寿命大致为25 a。     

Airline emission charges: Effects on airfares,service quality,and aircraft design

This paper explores the effect of airline emissions charges on airfares, airline service quality, aircraft design features, and network structure, using a detailed and realistic theoretical model of competing duopoly airlines. These impacts are derived by analyzing the effects of an increase in the effective price of fuel, which is the path by which emissions charges will alter airline choices. The results show that emission charges will raise fares, reduce flight frequency, increase load factors, and raise aircraft fuel efficiency, while having no effect on aircraft size. Given that these adjustments occur in response to the treatment of an emissions externality that is currently unaddressed, they represent efficient changes that move society closer to a social optimum.     

Route choice of cyclists in Zurich

This paper presents the first route choice model for bicyclists estimated from a large sample of GPS observations and overcomes the limitations inherent in the generally employed stated preference approach. It employs an improved mode detection algorithm for GPS post-processing to determine trips made by bicycle, which are map matched to an enriched street network. The alternatives are generated as a random sample from an exhaustive, but constrained search. Accounting for the similarity between the alternatives with the path-size factor the MNL estimates show that the elasticity with regards to trip length is nearly four times larger than that with respect to the share of bike paths. The elasticity with respect to the product of length and maximum gradient of the route is small. No other variable describing the routes had an impact. The heterogeneity of the cyclists is captured through interaction terms formulated on their average behaviour.     

Special issue: Importance of public transport

The transport demand in most major cities around the world can only be met with a high‐quality public transport system. The requirements on bus, rail, underground and tram systems are manifold with reliability and efficiency as the key factors. The service operating hours and the size of the network are often extended in order to serve the needs better. Further, most metropolitan areas are trying to provide more incentives for citizens to leave the car at home and use the local transit systems instead. The reasons are well known. Not only does a public transport system only make economical sense if it is well used, but most urban areas with a high car‐dependency face at least three major problems; safety, congestion, and pollution (noise and air pollution, land separation, etc.). It is generally recognised that to decrease car usage and to increase public transport usage a stick & carrot approach is needed. The London congestion‐charging scheme is an example since all revenues collected by the scheme are put into the improvement of bus and underground services.     

Design framework for FlexRay network parameter optimization

Because the FlexRay protocol has more than 70 configuration parameters and these parameters correlate with each other, designing a FlexRay network is a complex and difficult task. In this study, we propose a design framework that optimizes the two main FlexRay network parameters that are highly relevant to the application algorithm. The design process is composed of two steps for optimizing parameters. In the first step, the static slot length is optimized using a frame-packing algorithm. This algorithm binds network signals into static frames based on their periods and signal groups. In the second step, the communication cycle length is optimally designed with frame-scheduling algorithm and worst-case reponse time analysis. Based on the frame-scheduling algorithm, the response times are analyzed. The proposed design framework was applied to a unified chassis control system as a case study, and the analytical results were verified.     

Off-set crack propagation analysis under mixed mode loadings

An assessment was carried out herein to study the eccentricity of cracks subjected to mixed-mode loadings. Several loading locations relative to a central line were selected to induce mixed-mode loadings, which were computed using a finite element method. An adaptive meshing technique was adopted during the simulation of crack propagation to ensure the singularity of stress at the tip of the crack. The stress intensity failure criterion was used and programmed, and the node splitting technique was used when the stress intensity factor reached the fracture toughness of the material to simulate crack propagations. It was found that large variations in the stress intensity factor were observed when off-set cracks were used, and that K _II decreased when loading distance increased, but increased when the off-set crack distance was increased. Both crack eccentricity and loading distance played important roles in producing mixed-mode loading, compared to the influence of central cracks. Correction factors were introduced to modify the calculation of stress intensity factors under mixed-mode loadings. Simulations of crack propagation were also conducted to study the effects of crack eccentricities and loading distances. It was found that the crack length, the loading distance relative to the central crack and the crack eccentricity dominated calculations of the integrity of cracked structures.