Part 2. Beyond single-outcome models: Decompositions of aggregate and disaggregate road safety risk

The second part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the development of the founders' double streams explaining single-outcome indicators (probability of accidents and fatalities, respectively) by fixed form regression, as outlined in the Part 1. Following Page (1997, pp. 67–122, 2001) and others, we use as turning point of the evolution of both aggregate and discrete approaches the DRAG-1 model of 1984, itself based on aggregate data, which introduced four key innovations in principle applicable to both streams.     

Impacts of the 2004 Tsunami on Surin Marine National Park,Thailand

The impacts of the tsunami in 2004 on the reefs in Surin Marine National Park, Thailand, varied with the location and exposure of the reefs. Channel areas between islands were severely damaged. Areas with steep reef slopes were damaged by sand slides or coral collapse more than areas with low slopes. Massive, sub-massive, and encrusting corals were more resistant and resilient to the direct impact of the tsunami than branching, tabulate, and foliose life forms whereas the latter were more tolerant of temporary coverage by sand. Sub-massive corals were the most tolerant overall and survived sand coverage, breakage, and overturning. Live coral cover measured three months after the tsunami was significantly greater than immediately post-tsunami as broken, moved, or sand-covered corals, recorded as impacted in the initial survey, had survived and were regenerating. Low turbidity, lack of pollution, and mild currents possibly contributed to rapid recovery and limited long-term effects of the tsunami. Impact assessment shortly after a major disturbance may give an initial measure of damage but subsequent surveys must be undertaken to identify long-term effects. Understanding patterns of reef damage can help to formulate reef zoning and protection strategies in response to catastrophic events, but also in advance of such events to improve likely resilience of the marine park to disturbance.     

Train-to-wayside wireless communication in tunnel using ultra-wide-band and time reversal

The capabilities of ultra-wide-band (UWB) technology make it a viable candidate for fourth generation wireless communication. This paper proposes the use of UWB radio technology and time-reversal (TR) technique for underground train-to-wayside communication systems. UWB technology has the potential to offer simultaneous ground-to-train communication, train location and obstacle detection in front of the trains. Time-reversal channel prefiltering facilitates signal detection and helps reducing interference. Thus, UWB–TR combination provides a challenging, economically sensible, as well as technically effective alternative solution to existing signaling technologies used in urban transport systems. This paper concentrates on the communication function and reports simulation and measurement performance evaluation of such combinations, respectively in a deterministic tunnel channel model and in real tunnel environments. A new approach is also proposed to ensure multiple access (MA) communication using modified-orthogonal waveforms.     

Spatial allocation on a network with congestion

This article formalizes the land use design problem as a discrete-convex programming problem integrating within a quadratic assignment framework a realistic representation of transportation behavior (automobile congestion and variable demand for travel) as modelled by a combined trip distribution trip assignment model. Hill-climbing algorithms are proposed to solve the resulting optimization problem. Their performance is compared and evaluated on a set of test problems.     

Modelling propeller and rudder induced forces acting on deep drafted vessels in muddy navigation areas

To assess the navigability of deep drafted vessels in muddy navigation areas a mathematical model has been built that takes into account the characteristics of the mud layer. This was achieved with the introduction of a fluidization parameter which determines the corresponding hydrodynamically equivalent depth above a solid bottom. As a result, the under keel clearance dependency of a given mathematical manoeuvring model can be reformulated in such way that the effect of any realistic muddy condition is included. In this article the modelling of the propeller and rudder induced forces and the implementation possibilities of the model will be discussed. It is concluded that the mathematical model, initially formulated for a 6,000 TEU container carrier, provides reliable predictions of the behaviour of larger container carriers and even fuller deep drafted ships.     

Combinatorial programming,statistical optimization and the optimal transportation network problem

This paper presents and evaluates a branch and bound algorithm and two heuristic hill-climbing techniques to solve a discrete formulation of the optimal transportation network design problem. For practical applications it is proposed to combine a hill-climbing algorithm with a uniform random generation of the initial solutions, thereby inducing a statistical distribution of local optima. In order to determine when to stop sampling local optima and in order to provide an estimate of the exact optimum based on the whole distribution of local optima, we follow previous work and fit a Weibull distribution to the empirical distribution of local optima. Several extensions are made over previous work: in particular, a new confidence interval and a new stopping rule are proposed. The numerical application of the statistical optimization methodology to the network design algorithms consolidates the empirical validity of fitting a Weibull distribution to the empirical distribution of local optima. Numerical experiments with hill-climbing techniques of varying power suggest that the method is best applied with heuristics of intermediate quality: such heuristics provide many distinct sample points for statistical estimation while keeping the confidence intervals sufficiently narrow.     

Part 1. National road safety performance: Data,the emergence of two single-outcome modeling streams and public health

This first part of the state-of-the art focuses on the origins of road safety modeling, covering data, early models and the public health context of model formulation and use.     

Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance

The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.