De l’intérêt de contrôler l’impact des hypothèses de composition du parc automobile sur l’estimation des émissions liées au trafic routier

Since the 1990s, transport project assessments take systematically pollutant emission estimations into account. This paper is about the methodological aspects of these calculations. It focuses more specifically on the car fleet hypothesis, which most often lays on national data, without consideration of local specificities. We use the last household travel survey from Lyon, 2006, and the SIMBAD model to compare the results of CO₂ and NO_x emissions estimated from the French national car fleet, the aggregated Lyon car fleet and the same fleet disaggregated by household location and income. We show that the error level varies, depending on the pollutant and the observation scale. The use of an aggregated local car fleet seems interesting and satisfactory for a global emission assessment. If the results are required at a more detailed spatial level, the use of this local fleet improves sharply the estimations in comparison of a national fleet; the fleet disaggregation refines the results for NO_x.     

The annual cycle of nanoflagellates in the Central Cantabrian Sea (Bay of Biscay)

The annual cycle of nanoflagellates (NF) including autotrophic (ANF), heterotrophic (HNF) and mixotropic (MNF) flagellates carried out in a temperate sea (Central Cantabrian Sea, southern Bay of Biscay) is presented. Three stations with characteristics ranging from coastal to oceanic conditions were analysed in order to compare NF response to this gradient. Samples were monthly collected at each station at three different depths between February 2002 and December 2002. CTD profiles were also taken at each station. NF were grouped according to their trophic status into ANF, HNF and MNF. Abundance and biomass were determined for each group. The annual cycle showed a general pattern consisting in a maximum in July with secondary maxima in March and October and minimum values in May. ANF were the most important fraction, making a major contribution (nearly 75%) to total NF biomass in all stations. HNF represented over 20% along the cycle, except for a peak in spring found in every station. MNF reached less than 5%, showing low seasonability. Small flagellates (2–5 µm) dominated throughout the cycle. Microplankton community was also analysed in terms of abundance and biomass. A significant positive correlation (r² = 0.49) was obtained between 2–5 µm NF and 10–20 µm HNF–MNF biomasses, suggesting a possible trophic relationship between these groups which should be cautiously taken. No significant relationships were found between microplankton and NF or between nutrients and ANF, indicating that the regulation of NF numbers is complex and probably implicates other groups. In addition to this, the unexpected 2002 Chl a concentration pattern and the misplacing of upwelling events render necessary to perform additional studies to fully understand the precise behaviour of NF in the Cantabrian Sea. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of a NF cycle in a temperate sea that considers all functional groups.     

When strike comes to town… anticipated and actual behavioural reactions to a one-day,pre-announced,complete rail strike in the Netherlands

We conducted secondary analysis on data collected among rail users, days before and after a national rail strike in the Netherlands. Our aim was to compare anticipated and actual behavioural reactions to the rail strike, investigate associations with traveller and trip characteristics, and perceived behavioural control and satisfaction with the chosen alternative. Forty-four percent of the people who had anticipated to travel by train on the day of the strike abandoned their trip, 24% switched to car as driver, 14% switched to another mode (as passenger), 18% stayed with the train and rescheduled the planned activity to another day. Almost half of people who had anticipated travelling by car expected to change behaviour as well. Multinomial logistic regression showed low preference for car among rail users. Considerable marginal effects were found for several variables, e.g.: young people and females were less likely to switch to car; short and middle distance trips were less likely abandoned or switched to another day; commute and business trips were more likely done by car, and business trips less likely cancelled. Despite high levels of perceived behavioural control and satisfaction with the chosen alternative, permanent modal shift as result of this strike is not expected.     

Predicting the chloride penetration of fly ash concrete in seawater

In this study, a model for predicting chloride penetration in fly ash concrete under long-term exposure in a marine environment is developed. The empirical model was based on 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year investigation of concretes in a marine site. Regression analysis of the data was carried out by applying Fick's second law of diffusion to generate an empirical formula for predicting chloride concentration in concrete. The model uses the water to binder (W/B) ratio, fly ash content, distance from the concrete surface, and exposure time. Model validation revealed that the predicted chloride concentration levels were within a ±25% error margin (R² = 0.91 ? 0.99) in the samples used to develop the model. The model was also verified using data from previous laboratory and field studies. Most predicted chloride concentration levels were within a ±30% margin of error from field samples. The model also predicted the strong effect of fly ash and W/B ratio on reducing chloride diffusion in concrete. Results clearly indicated that a high volume fly ash replacement (up to 50% by weight of binder) and a low W/B ratio will yield good chloride resistance in concrete under long-term exposure in a marine environment.     

Do observations adequately resolve the natural variability of oceanic turbulence?

Especially in high Reynolds number, naturally-occurring flows, turbulence is a highly variable process. It is challenging to measure yet it is vital that we do so in order to quantify the internal transports of mass, nutrients, energy and momentum. Isolated turbulence profiles are difficult to interpret; systematic sampling and subsequent averaging are necessary. Confidence in our ability to properly sample turbulence arises from intergroup comparisons, comparisons with other methods to assess mixing coefficients and, most fundamentally, the constraints imposed by the governing fluid dynamics on both energy losses via viscous dissipation caused by turbulence and on the mixing that results from turbulence. Several examples in which fluid processes have been isolated from the full range of oceanic motions are reviewed in this light. These examples show how observationally-derived estimates of turbulence dissipation or mixing are consistent with larger scale constraints. The larger oceanographic problem of defining the full geographic variability of mixing remains.     

Measuring user benefits of changes in the transport system when traveler awareness is limited

This paper derives and illustrates measures for the ex ante evaluation of user benefits associated with improvements in the transport system. In contrast with conventional analyses, we assume that awareness among travelers of changes in the transport system is limited and grows over time. Specifically, we postulate that each day (trip) provides travelers with an opportunity to learn about changes that occurred recently in the transport system. This learning process may involve learning through direct experience and indirect learning through for example social networks or information provision. Our measure of user benefits incorporates the conventional logsum-measure as a special case (when full awareness is assumed) and has a closed form solution under reasonable error term assumptions. A numerical illustration provides a first sign of face validity. We derive and discuss a number of practical implications, and discuss possible model extensions.     

Graph Trace Analysis and Generic Algorithms for Interdependent Reconfigurable System Design and Control

This paper discusses current research for development of model-based generic algorithms for design and control of reconfigurable interdependent systems. This work is based on extension of Graph Trace Analysis (GTA), which was originally developed in the 1990s for power distribution system design. Because of GTA's ability to combine and restructure analysis methodologies from a variety of problem domains, it is now being used for integrated power distribution and transmission system design, operations, and control. Over the last few years research has begun to formalize GTA into a multidiscipline approach that uses generic algorithms and a common model-based analysis framework. The paper provides an overview of the concepts used in GTA, and then discusses how GTA and generic algorithms can be used together for design and control of multidiscipline systems. This new approach includes decoupling component and system level equations, using iterators to structure iterative analysis that simplifies coordination of discrete events and also eliminates the need for large matrices, using composition to implement polymorphism and simplify data management, using dependency components to structure analysis across different systems types, and implementation of hot-swappable algorithms.     

Review and application of ship collision and grounding analysis procedures

It is the purpose of the paper to present a review of prediction and analysis tools for collision and grounding analyses and to outline a probabilistic procedure for which these tools can be used by the maritime industry to develop performance based rules to reduce the risk associated with human, environmental and economic costs of collision and grounding events. The main goal of collision and grounding research should be to identify the most economic risk control options associated with prevention and mitigation of collision and grounding events.     

A two-dimensional response to a tropical storm on the Gulf of Mexico shelf

Surface current data from drifting buoys and remotely sensed wind data recorded over the continental shelf in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the passage of tropical storm Josephine in October 1996 are examined. Drifter data show the existence of a strong surface jet (velocities reaching 1 m s⁻¹) that moves up the west Florida shelf and westward along the Louisiana–Texas shelf, and lasts for nearly 1 week. The coastal jet occurs during an intense synoptic scale wind event where wind speeds reach 15 m s⁻¹. A simple force balance and statistical analysis are performed to assess the role of strong wind forcing. The primary balance shows an Ekman-type current. The role of local acceleration is greatest when winds are directed along bathymetry. A simple two-dimensional strongly forced shelf response model developed from the linear steady-state momentum equations also indicates larger along-shore currents due to both Ekman-type forcing by cross-shore winds and a cross-shore pressure gradient arising from conservation of mass. Model parameters fit empirically are within 15% of theoretical values. The simple model explains 30% and 46% of the variance in the observed along-shore and cross-shore surface currents, respectively.     

Recent sedimentary study of the shelf of the Basque country

The Northern Iberian margin of the Spanish Basque country (provinces of Gipuzkoa and Viscaia) is characterized by a narrow continental platform, which receives inputs of riverine particulate matter from the numerous riverine systems located within the Basque country. This particulate matter is subsequently deposited within the Bay of Biscay, and Gouf de Capbreton [Frouin, R., Fiuza, A.F.G., Ambar, I., Boyd, T.J., 1990. Observations of a poleward surface current off the coasts of Portugal and Spain during winter. Journal of Geophysical Research 95 (C1), 679–691]. The main goal of this study is to establish a map of the surface sediment distribution of the Basque continental shelf and more specifically to map the muddy patch located at the eastern side of that continental shelf.Three oceanographic cruises were conducted in 2003 and 2004. From these campaigns 340 surface samples, 12 short cores and 3 gravity cores have been collected over the mid and outer shelf from depths ranging between 50 m and 150 m deep. 3 seismic profiles were obtained across the shelf mud patch using a Sparker device.Sediment grain-size analyses were performed by the classical physical method of sieving and use of settling columns. The POC (Particular Organic Carbon) amounts in sediment and water samples were determined using the Strickland and Parsons' method [Strickland, J.D.H., Parsons, T.R., 1972. Determination of particulate carbon. In : A practical handbook of seawater analysis. Fisheries ResearchBoard of Canada, Ottawa, pp. 207−211] as adapted by Etcheber [Etcheber, H., 1981. Comparaison des diverses méthodes d'évaluation des teneurs en matières en suspension et en carbone organique particulaire des eaux marines du plateau continental aquitain. Journal de Recherche Océanographique VI (2), 37−42]. Radioisotopic measurements (²¹⁰Pb_exc) were made using a semi-planar germanium detector coupled to a multichannel analyser. Radiographical analysis was performed with an X-ray equipment (SCOPIX®) coupled with a radioscopy instrumentation and processing unit.Firstly, a detailed sedimentological map of this shelf has been produced and secondly, geophysical surveys have precisely mapped the geometry of the main mud patch on the continental shelf. In the mud patch itself the rates of sedimentation are between 0.13 and 0.50 cm yr^− 1. The maximum rate of sedimentation is located in the central mud patch, whereas the minimum rate of deposition occurs close to the rocky outcrops. These results seem to be in agreement with the estimation of the total thickness of the mud patch revealed by seismic profiles. The central part corresponds to the maximum thickness of 7 m.Interpretations of the associated oceanic current forcing factors (current direction, wave fetch and wind directional modes) relating to the identified sediment depositional zones are also undertaken.