Distributions of travel time variability on urban roads

Reliability is an important factor in route, mode and also departure time choice analysis and is a key performance indicator for transport systems. However, the current metrics used to measure travel time variability may be not sufficient to fully represent reliability. Better understanding of the distributions of travel times is needed for the development of improved metrics for reliability. A comprehensive data analysis involving the assessment of longitudinal travel time data for two urban arterial road corridors in Adelaide, Australia, demonstrates that the observed distributions are more complex than previously assumed. The data sets demonstrate strong positive skew, very long upper tails, and sometimes bimodality. This paper proposes the use of alternative statistical distributions for travel time variability, with the Burr Type XII distribution emerging as an appropriate model for both links and routes. This statistical distribution has some attractive properties that make it suitable for explicit definition of many travel time reliability metrics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Applications of intuitionistic fuzzy set aggregation operators in transport multi-factor project evaluation

Abstract

An intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) is a generalisation of a fuzzy set characterised by a truth membership function and a false membership function. The former is a lower bound on the grade of membership of the evidence in favour of a particular element belonging to the set and the latter is a lower bound on the negation of that element belonging to the set derived from evidence against that element belonging to the set. A similar concept is a vague set, though vague sets have been shown to be identical to IFSs. In the context of project evaluation, an IFS may be used to represent the degree to which a project satisfies a criterion and the degree to which it does not. Aggregation of such IFSs has been considered in recent years to identify a best project in terms of several criteria or factors. A particular desirable way to aggregate IFS is in terms of an ordered weighted average (OWA) which can be expressed in different forms such as arithmetic and geometric. In an OWA operator, weights are applied to the position of an element in the aggregation. In addition, hybrid OWA operators may be developed to not only weight the position of elements in the aggregation but the element itself. An example is given relating to the Kuranda Range Road upgrade (Queensland, Australia) which is limited by grade, poor overtaking opportunities, poor horizontal alignment and other constraints and the road is expected to become increasingly congested over the next few years. A more flexible multi-factor decision method is used to identify a ‘best’ project from a set of four alternative projects.     

Book Review: Airline Marketing and Management

Abstract

Public transport policy in the Madrid Metropolitan Area is often deemed as a success. In 1985, an important reform was carried out in order to create a new administrative authority to coordinate all public transport modes and establish a single fare for all of them. This reform prompted a huge growth in public transport usage, even though it reduced the funding coverage ratio of the transport system. Since then, Madrid’s public transport system has been undergoing an increasing level of subsidization, which might jeopardize the financial viability of the city public transport system in the future. In this paper, we present a detailed analysis of the evolution of the public transport funding policy in Madrid in recent years. We found that the increasing level of subsidy can hardly be explained on the basis of equity issues. Moreover, we claim that there is still room for a funding policy that makes the efficiency of the system compatible with its financial sustainability.     

Longer-term changes in mode choice decisions in Chennai: a comparison between cross-sectional and dynamic models

The rapid and continuing changes in travel and mobility needs in India over the last decade necessitates the development and use of dynamic models for travel demand forecasting rather than cross-sectional models. In this context, this paper investigates mode choice dynamics among workers in Chennai city, India over a period of five years (1999–2004). Dynamics in mode choice is captured at four levels: exogenous variable change, state-dependence, changes in users’ sensitivity to attributes, and unobserved error terms. The results show that the dynamic models provide a substantial improvement (of over 500 log-likelihood points and ρ² increases from 44% to 68%) over the cross-sectional model. The performance was compared using two illustrative policy scenarios with important methodological and practical implications. The results indicate that cross-sectional models tend to provide inflated estimates of potential improvement measures. Improving the Level of Service (LOS) alone will not produce the anticipated benefits to transit agencies, as it fails to overcome the persistent inertia captured in the state-dependence factors. The results and models have important applications in the context of growing motorization and congestion management in developing countries.

尾涡/固体边界交互作用下表面压力的数值模拟

当强劲的尾涡撞击到结构时,其表面压力将呈现大幅的变化.这种大幅变化的脉动压力是引起结构震动以及水动力噪声的主要原因之一.许多相关的工程领域都希望使用相对经济的方法对此压力脉动进行有效地预报.本文介绍一种已经嵌入一面元法程序(PROPELLA)的尾涡砰击模型,及其在一吊舱桨尾涡撞击支柱诱导表面压力模拟中的应用.由模拟的时均表面压力分布和相均压力的时序变化与对应的实验数据的比较来看,数值模拟与试验结果吻合较好.     

Mass balance of trace metals in the Adriatic Sea

A first order mass balance of six different trace metals (Mn, Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni) was presented for a 1-year period for the different compartments of the Adriatic Sea: compartment 1 (northern Adriatic Sea), compartment 2 (central Adriatic Sea and surface layer of the southern Adriatic Sea) and compartment 3 (deep water of the southern Adriatic Sea). The Adriatic Sea appeared to be a source of dissolved Cu, Mn and Fe for the Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Otranto whereas for dissolved Zn and Pb the Adriatic Sea appeared to be a net sink. For dissolved Ni, inputs and outputs through the Strait of Otranto balanced each other. The residence times of all metals in compartment 1 were significantly shorter than that of water indicating significant removal. In compartments 2 and 3, residence times of Mn and Fe were relatively short suggesting removal from the water column whereas for the other metals their residence times were similar to that of water. Calculations of turnover times of metals with respect to different processes showed that in compartments 1 and 2, sedimentation was the main process that affected the content of the reservoirs whereas in compartment 3, the water flux exchanges played an important role for Zn, Cu and Ni.Most of the metals clearly undergo a very dynamic cycle of sedimentation/remobilization particularly in the Northern Adriatic Sea. In the northern Adriatic Sea, most of the Mn and Fe in deposited sediment were remobilized. This was related to diagenetic processes involving the utilisation and solubilisation of Mn and Fe oxides, which occur in the surface of the sediment in the northern Adriatic Sea. In the central Adriatic Sea, remobilization of Mn and Fe was less than in the northern Adriatic Sea, suggesting that diagenesis processes appear deeper in the sediment. Advective transport of sediment was a major source of metals for the deep basin. As much as 80% of the sediments in the South Adriatic Pit might be advected from the shelf. Remobilization fluxes in the South Adriatic Pit were significantly less than in the Northern and Central Adriatic Sea reflecting hemi-pelagic sediments.     

Options-Based Multi-Objective Evaluation of Product Platforms

A platform is the set of elements and interfaces that are common to a family of products. Design teams must choose among feasible platform concepts upon which a product family could be based, often involving new technologies. Multiple performance objectives need to be considered. A standard approach is to convert the performance outcomes into financial figures, which can then be weighed against the required investments. However, it is not always possible to transform performance outcomes (benefits) into monetary terms, such as in defense or highly technical projects. A multi-objective form of real-options-based platform selection is developed. Systems are compared based on multiple technical and economic goals, incorporating uncertainty by representing the unknown factors during the subsequent development process with probability distributions. The range of uncertain outcomes is integrated into single expected measures of effectiveness, which can then be applied to select the most appropriate platform and set of support product variants. An application to the design of platform-based families of naval high-speed ships is shown.     

印度孟买采用双电流制电动车组

介绍了印度盂买双电流制电动车组的结构特点及主要的技术参数。     

Lane change algorithm for autonomous vehicles via virtual curvature method

This paper addresses the lane changing problem of autonomous vehicles when there is no road infrastructure support. The autonomous vehicle should drive from the current lane to the adjacent lane in the absence of a reference path to guide the vehicle to the new lane. We suggest an algorithm that incorporates a virtual road curvature with bicycle model for lane change guidance. As the name suggests, the virtual road curvature does not physically exist. It is a user assigned radius of a curved path which connects the current lane to the adjacent lane. Since the lateral sensor readings during lane changing maneuver are erroneous, the steering angle along with the virtual curvature is fed into a bicycle model to estimate the lateral position during the transition to the next lane. Details of the algorithm and the virtual road curvature determination are presented in the paper. In contrast to other lane changing methods, controller switching is not required and the same controller is for both lane keeping and lane changing. The algorithm is verified experimentally and the results are comparable with lane changing with physical transition lane.     

Estimation of air–sea CO2 fluxes in the Bay of Biscay based on empirical relationships and remotely sensed observations

An empirical algorithm has been developed to compute the sea surface CO₂ fugacity (fCO₂^sw) in the Bay of Biscay from remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST_RS) and chlorophyll a (chl a_RS) retrieved from AVHRR and SeaWiFS sensors, respectively. Underway fCO₂^sw measurements recorded during 2003 were correlated with SST_RS and chl a_RS data yielding a regression error of 0.1 ± 7.5 µatm (mean ± standard deviation). The spatial and temporal variability of air–sea fCO₂ gradient (ΔfCO₂) and air–sea CO₂ flux (FCO₂) was analyzed using remotely sensed images from September 1997 to December 2004. An average FCO₂ of ? 1.9 ± 0.1 mol m^? 2 yr^? 1 characterized the Bay of Biscay as a CO₂ sink that is suffering a significant long-term decrease of 0.08 ± 0.05 mol m^? 2 yr^? 2 in its capacity to store atmospheric CO₂. The main parameter controlling the long-term variability of the CO₂ uptake from the atmosphere was the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity (57%), followed by the SST_RS (10%) and the chl a_RS (2%).