Car ownership and public transport use: Revisiting the interaction

At the beginning of the 1980s, it seemed that a consensus was emerging among researchers that public transport service levels, fares or quality had a small but possibly important effect on car ownership, and that this should be taken into account for those purposes where car ownership forecasts are used for developing policy on public transport or roads. Somehow, the findings faded away, and had little effect on policy thinking or on analytical techniques. The results of six surveys carried out in South Yorkshire over the period 1972 to 1991, during which there were extreme changes in public transport policy, tend to support a prima facie case for reopening the question. At the household level, car ownership rates are shown to be more volatile than is often assumed, especially in multiple car households. This volatility provides a context within which the quality of public transport provision appears to influence both the level of car ownership and the relationship between changes in the level of car ownership and changes in public transport use.     

Very-High-Speed Tests on the French Railway Track

The very-high-speed tests carried out by SNCF between the end of 1989 and May 1990, are an extension of the investigations which have been made for many years in order to acquire the control of high speeds. The high-speed run which ended the tests is well known [1], [2],[3].

In order to place the final test campaign in its context, we can recall progression made during the last decade.

In February 1981, the maximal speed of 380 km/h was reached with a TGV-PSE¹ train set, having the same configuration as the series, but only seven trailers instead of eight.

During the following years, until 1986, the pneumatic suspension and the new Y 231 carrying bogies designed for TGV-ATL train sets were developed, with numerous test runnings in the speed range from 300 to 350 km/h, in order to obtain certitudes as regards the stability of the bogies and the appropriate choice of anti-hunting devices for commercial speeds of 270 km/h (LGV-PSE) or 300 km/h (LGV-ATL).

These tests allowed the definition of the TGV equipment design principles, which are applied today as regards the critical speed of the bogies.

Between 1985 and 1988, the development of the prototype train set equiped with self-controlled synchronous motors (March 1988) led once more to numerous runnings at high speed, in December 1988 with the so-called “operation TGV 88”. During this operation, the speed range from 350 to 400 km/h was investigated (maximal speed 408,4 km/h on December 12th 1988).

Apart from the capability of the synchronous traction equipment to develop the required power and the performance consisting in the realization of such tests on a line kept in operation (LGV-PSE), the teachings gathered together during this test campaign were decisive for the pursuit of the operation.

On this occasion, we discovered that:

-with the single-phase GPU pantograph mounted on this train set, we could get the current collection under control without difficulties inside the studied speed range,

-the bogies presented a stability margin distinctly higher than that which had been estimated, according to the results of former experiences.

Consequently, the test campaign of the TGV 117 could be engaged with a great confidence in the capabilities of the TGV equipment to achieve markedly higher speeds with full safety. The preparation of this test campaign had begun in 1986 and was conducted in a parallel direction to the above mentioned experimentation.

The campaign was preceded by a preliminary test campaign with the train set TGV-ATL n° 308, with a reduced train composition, including eight trailers. The goal was the validation, until 390 km/ h, of the test field consisting in the TGV-ATL Aquitaine branch, as well for the track as for the overhead contact line, the achievement of which was just ended.

The operation TGV 117 was then carried out in two phases:

-in December 1989 the train set TGV-ATL 325 with a reduced train composition consisting in four trailers between two motor cars reached the maximal speed of 482,4 km/h on December 5th,

-in May 1990 the same train set, but with only three trailers, improved the performance unto the final record: the speed of 515,3 km/h was reached on May 18th.     

A numerical transport model for predicting the distributions of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the southern North Sea: the sensitivity of model results to the uncertainties in the magnitudes of metal inputs

A new transport model for metals (named NOSTRADAMUS) has been developed to predict concentrations and distributions of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the southern North Sea. NOSTRADAMUS is comprised of components for water, inorganic and organic suspended particulate matter transport; a primary production module contributes to the latter component. Metal exchange between dissolved (water) and total suspended particulate matter (inorganic + organic) phases is driven by distribution coefficients. Transport is based on an existent 2-D vertically integrated model, incorporating a 35 × 35 km grid. NOSTRADAMUS is largely driven by data obtained during the Natural Environment Research Council North Sea Project (NERC NSP). The sensitivity of model predictions to uncertainties in the magnitudes of metal inputs has been tested. Results are reported for a winter period (January 1989) when plankton production was low. Simulated ranges in concentrations in regions influenced by the largest inflows, i.e. the NE English coast and the Southern Bight, are similar to the ranges in the errors of the concentrations estimated at the northern and southern open sea boundaries of the model. Inclusion of uncertainties with respect to atmospheric (up to ± 54%) and riverine (± 30%) inputs makes little difference to the calculated concentrations of both dissolved and particulate fractions within the southern North Sea. When all the errors associated with the inputs are included there is good agreement between computed and observed concentrations, and that for dissolved and particulate Cd, Cu and Zn, and dissolved Ni and Pb, many of the observations fall within, or are close to, the range of values generated by the model. For particulate Pb, model simulations predict concentrations of the right order, but do not reproduce the large scatter in actual concentrations, with simulated concentrations showing a bias towards lower values compared to those observed. A factor which could have contributed to observed concentrations, and which is not included in the model, is considered to be a substantial benthic input of dissolved lead during this winter period, coupled to a rapid and extensive scavenging of the dissolved lead to particles. Significant reductions in riverine and aeolian inputs of total Cd and Cu of 70% and 50%, respectively, consistent with aims of North Sea Conferences, are predicted to lead to minor decreases (~ 10%) in water column concentrations of dissolved and particulate Cd and Cu, except near river sources, where maximum reductions of ~ 30–40% may occur.     

Transportation and energy—A future confrontation

An examination of the relationship between energy supplies and transportation systems indicates that a major confrontation is forthcoming. Predictions of the world's petroleum supplies and the primary dependence of transportation systems on petroleum show that there will be a depletion of these supplies in the next 50 years unless major changes in transportation and energy planning and policy making are forthcoming. A closer examination of specific transportation systems through the use of the transportation/ energy efficiency indicates that automobiles, aircraft and intercity trucking are most inefficient on a mobility per unit of petroleum basis. Recommendations on the difficult problem of how to account for the depletion characteristics of transportation systems are given. These include coordinated transportation and energy planning, restricted petroleum and transportation toll and tax rates, research and development on propulsion systems less dependent on petroleum, and a shifting of emphasis to higher transportation/energy efficiency systems such as compact automobiles, buses and trains.     

Impacts of commuting efficiency on congestion and emissions: case of the Hamilton CMA, Canada

This study uses IMULATE (Integrated Model of Urban LAnd use, Transportation, energy and Emissions) to examine the impacts of commuting efficiency on congestion and automobile emissions—specifically, non-methane hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides—in the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area. Estimates of these externalities are compared for two commuting scenarios: a base scenario of estimated commuting flows for 1991 and an optimal scenario in which the mean commuting time for all workers is minimized. The findings indicate that significant reductions in congestion and automobile emissions are possible by advocating policies that encourage greater commuting efficiency in the locational choices of workers. The analysis of jobs–housing balance as one such means suggests that a considerable proportion of commuting cannot be explained by geographical imbalances in the distributions of jobs and housing, and that workers consider many factors besides commuting costs in their locational choices. It is concluded that policies promoting jobs–housing balance as the principal strategy for facilitating more efficient commuting may not meet the expectations of policy-makers.     

Effect of a drag-reducing polymer solution ejection on tip vortex cavitation

Experiments regarding the modification of the foil geometry and/or active or passive mass injection in the vortex core have been performed to investigate the possibility of inhibiting tip vortex cavitation. The ejection at very low flow rates of drag-reducing polymer solutions at the tip of hydrofoils and propeller blades has demonstrated effectiveness as a tip vortex cavitation inhibitor. This paper reports the results obtained with an elliptical hydrofoil, of 8cm maximum chord and 12cm haif-span, operating at Reynolds numbers, of =10⁶, much larger than those previously reported in the literature. Lift coefficients and critical cavitation numbers were determined for a variety of flow and polymer solution ejection conditions. Tangential and axial components of the mean velocity as well as velocity fluctuations along the vortex path were also measured. At 12.5 m/s free stream velocity and a variety of angles of attack, the ejection of a 500 ppm aqueous solution of a drag-reducing polymer at a flow rate of about 5 cm³/s leads to a decrease of up to 30% in the cavitation number. This occurs without modification of the lift coefficient and, hence, of the midspan bound circulation of the foil. Moreover, water injection does not cause any appreciable change in the cavitation numbers. The tangential velocity profiles along the vortex path during polymer ejection indicate that the potential region remains the same, while the viscous core dimension increases, and the maximum tangential velocity decreases substantially as compared to the no ejection or water ejection experiments. Thus, the pressure coefficients at the vortex axis are smaller than for the no ejection or water ejection cases and cause the reduction of the critical cavitation numbers. It is speculated that this inhibition effect is due only to swelling of the polymer solution when exiting the ejection orifice.List of symbols a core radius (distance to the vortex axis for maximum tangential velocity) - C ₁ lift coefficient - c _max maximum chord - Cp pressure coefficient at the vortex axis - Cp _min minimum pressure coefficient at the vortex axis - d _e diameter of the ejection port - m ejection flow rate - P reference pressure - P _v vapor pressure - V free stream velocity - V _a axial velocity - V _t tangential velocity - v _r radial component of the velocity resulting from jet swelling - x downstream distance from the tip of the foil - y, r distance to the vortex axis - angle of attack - r difference between the swollen jet and the ejection port radii - boundary layer thickness - tip vortex intensity - _d ( _de ) desinent cavitation number (with ejection) - _i ( _ie ) inception cavitation number (with ejection) - _ii normal stresses - viscosity - v kinematic viscosity - p specific mass     

Assimilation of altimetric data in the mid-latitude oceans using the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman filter with an eddy-resolving, primitive equation model

A new data assimilation scheme has been elaborated for ocean circulation models based on the concept of an evolutive, reduced-order Kalman filter. The dimension of the assimilation problem is reduced by expressing the initial error covariance matrix as a truncated series of orthogonal perturbations. This error sub-space evolves during the assimilation so as to capture the growing modes of the estimation error. The algorithm has been formulated in quite a general fashion to make it tractable with a large variety of ocean models and measurement types. In the present paper, we have examined three possible strategies to compute the evolution of the error subspace in the so-called Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter: the steady filter considers a time-independent error sub-space, the apprentice filter progressively enriches the error sub-space with the information learned from the innovation vector after each analysis step, and the dynamical filter updates the error sub-space according to the model dynamics. The SEEK filter has been implemented to assimilate synthetic observations of the surface topography in a non-linear, primitive equation model that uses density as vertical coordinate. A simplified box configuration has been adopted to simulate a Gulf Stream-like current and its associated eddies and gyres with a resolution of 20 km in the horizontal, and 4 levels in the vertical. The concept of twin experiments is used to demonstrate that the conventional SEEK filter must be complemented by a learning mechanism in order to model the misrepresented tail of the error covariance matrix. An approach based on the vertical physics of the isopycnal model, is shown particularly robust to control the velocity field in deep layers with surface observations only. The cost of the method makes it a suitable candidate for large-size assimilation problems and operational applications.     

A Mathematical Model for Driver Steering Control, with Design, Tuning and Performance Results

A mathematical model for the steering control of an automobile is described. The structure of the model derives from linear optimal discrete time preview control theory but it is non-linear. Its parameter values are obtained by heuristic methods, using insight gained from the linear optimal control theory. The driver model is joined to a vehicle dynamics model and the path tracking performance is demonstrated, using moderate manoeuvring and racing speeds. The model is shown to be capable of excellent path following and to be robust against changes in the vehicle dynamics. Application to the simulation of manoeuvres specified by an ideal vehicle path and further development of the model to formalise the derivation of its parameter values and to put it to other uses are discussed.     

An Extended Adaptive Kalman Filter for Real-time State Estimation of Vehicle Handling Dynamics

This paper considers a method for estimating vehicle handling dynamic states in real-time, using a reduced sensor set; the information is essential for vehicle handling stability control and is also valuable in chassis design evaluation. An extended (nonlinear) Kalman filter is designed to estimate the rapidly varying handling state vector. This employs a low order (4 DOF) handling model which is augmented to include adaptive states (cornering stiffnesses) to compensate for tyre force nonlinearities. The adaptation is driven by steer-induced variations in the longitudinal vehicle acceleration. The observer is compared with an equivalent linear, model-invariant Kalman filter. Both filters are designed and tested against data from a high order source model which simulates six degrees of freedom for the vehicle body, and employs a combined-slip Pacejka tyre model. A performance comparison is presented, which shows promising results for the extended filter, given a sensor set comprising three accelerometers only. The study also presents an insight into the effect of correlated error sources in this application, and it concludes with a discussion of the new observer's practical viability.