Transport policy in Eastern Europe a case study of Hungary

This paper analyses the development of transport policy making in Eastern Europe over the last forty years and describes the role of the CMEA in determining national developments in Poland, Romania, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria. The USSR, Albania and Yugoslavia are excluded. The planning system as operated in the Eastern Block, is described, followed by a particular case study of Hungarian policy making with respect to the transport sector. Specific tansport issues relating to Hungary are outlined before conclusions are drawn in terms of future developments in relation with the European Community.     

Forecasting tanker freight rate using neural networks

Improvement in forecasting accuracy is a difficult task but critical for business success. This paper investigates the potential of neural networks for short- to long-term prediction of monthly tanker freight rates. Procedures are outlined for the development of the neural networks. The problem of under-training and over-training is addressed by controlling the number of iterations during the training process of neural networks. A comparative study of predictive performance between neural networks and ARMA time series models is conducted. Our evience shows that neural networks can significantly outperform time series models, especially for longer-term forecasting.     

Positional change in the Polish liner shipping market: a framework approach

This paper examines the changing position of Polish Ocean Lines (POL) container shipping activities in the North Atlantic, in the light of social, political and economic changes occurring in Poland. An analysis is made of alternative ways of assessing company position—ranging from the qualitative to the quantitative—and that of a qualitative framework approach is selected. Application of this framework using POL as a case study provides an indication of positional change between 1988 and 1993 reflecting the period of major change in Eastern Europe.     

A parking model hierarchy

The last decade has seen considerable developments in computer assisted design procedures which enable planners to investigate the impacts of changes in the transport system. These developments have become more available to analysts through the introduction of microcomputers and computer graphics. Unfortunately, the impacts of parking on the transport have not been incorporated explicitly in many of these models since their prime concern is the movement of traffic. Parking system design and policy analysis can, however, benefit greatly from these developments in computer technology and availability. The design of parking systems can be improved and the investigation of policy impacts can be trialed or refined prior to their introduction using microcomputer packages. This paper outlines some developments in these areas. More specifically, it outlines a hierarchy or microcomputer models and information systems that can investigate parking policy and study the level of service provided by parking systems.     

Overview of Coupling of Multibody and Control Engineering Tools

The role of Computer Aided Engineering in vehicle development has been significantly increased during the last decade. Specialised simulation tools became very complex, however, growing demands on complexity and particularly interdisciplinarity of vehicles and their simulation models have led to a number of approaches trying either to develop multidisciplinary simulation tools or to connect various specialised simulation tools by interfaces. This paper addresses some aspects of interconnection of the specialised simulation tools as one possibility for simulating complex mechatronic vehicle systems. It classifies the interfaces between specialised software packages in general, mentions some historical development of the interfacing and further discusses the examples of the implemented couplings between the Multibody System codes and Computer Aided Control Engineering tools. Finally, the performance of selected interfaces is compared on an example simulation of a controlled vehicle suspension.     

A study of tour formation: pre-, during,and post-recession analysis

Transportation - This study examines changes in activity-travel patterns of employed people during a recession by using a tour-based representation of the activity-based approach. The term tour is...     

Benefit-cost analysis for labor intensive transportation systems

Labor-intensive systems such as bikeways and pedestrian ways suffer in transportation planning in part because traditional benefit-cost analysis focuses on narrow, private transportation savings (e.g., reducing vehicle and time costs).Planners need benefit-cost frameworks which capture the community-wide effects of such innovative transportation systems — reduction in air pollution, less congestion, and increases in exercise and outdoor recreation. This study discusses practical methods for planners to include such categories in their analyses and applies these methods to two case studies. The analysis yields benefit-cost ratios which are much higher than those found in most public projects — suggesting negative returns to marginal automobiles in congested areas such as university campuses. The paper concludes with some suggested bikeway planning guidelines that emerge from expanded benefit-cost analysis.     

The convergence of diagonalization algorithms for asymmetric network equilibrium problems

We provide a sufficient condition for the convergence of diagonalization algorithms for equilibrium traffic assignment problems with asymmetric Jacobian matrix B(v) of the link user cost mapping s(v) of the flow v. When

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, where D(v^*) > 0 is the diagonal of B(v^*) and v^* is the equilibrium flow, we demonstrate a local convergence theorem for nonlinear cost functions. The implication of this result for practical applications of the model are outlined.