On the equivalence of common rearrangements for sum constrained travel estimation problems

This paper examines the problem of estimating the parameters of nonlinear sum constrained models by use of rearrangements to permit linear estimation methods. Over the years a number of different, and sometimes ingenious, techniques have been proposed but a remaining difficulty arises from the fact that different rearrangements lead to different parameter estimates. In this paper it is shown that while ordinary least squares certainly results in different estimates, generalised least squares leads to identical parameter estimates provided convergence to the true maximum likelihood estimates is achieved. In particular it is seen that estimates are invariant with choice of base or deletion of one equation and identical for the single base, multinominal logit, geometric mean and link constant versions. The findings of this paper apply to any sum-constrained model and in transportation these occur very frequently as mode choice problems, singly-constrained gravity models, and as route choice models in path assignment. While we develop all results in this paper in the context of an intercity passenger modal market share model, the transferability of these results to other problems should be recognised.     

Multi-objective signal control of urban junctions – Framework and a London case study

This paper presents an approach to multi-objective signal control using fuzzy logic. The signal control uses fuzzy logic where the membership functions are optimised according to the Bellman–Zadeh principle of fuzzy decision-making. This approach is both practical for the decision-maker and efficient, as it leads directly to a Pareto-optimal solution. Signal control priorities are ultimately a political decision. Therefore the tool developed in this research allows the traffic engineer to balance the objectives easily by setting acceptability and unacceptability thresholds for each objective. Particular attention is given in the example to pedestrian delays. The membership functions of the fuzzy logic are optimised by a genetic algorithm coupled to the VISSIM microscopic traffic simulator. The concept is illustrated with a case study of the Marylebone Road–Baker Street intersection in London at which pedestrians as well as vehicle flows are high. The results prove the feasibility of the framework and show the vehicle delays for a more pedestrian friendly signal control strategy.     

确定多用途冰区航行船舶设计特性最优值的叠加性和互换性方法

  目的  研究冰区船设计参数之间的相互关联性,旨在提出一种多用途冰区航行船舶性能与设计参数之间的优化方法。冰区船作为一个整体系统,其性能指标不是独立的,通过任何一个技术指标能够近似确定其他的技术指标。  方法  采用的方法是在满足设计要求的前提下,选取冰区船各项性能指标的最优值,并采用冰区船单项设计指标最优值的叠加性特性方法,因为每一项船舶技术指标既与其他的技术指标相关,也与船舶的设计参数相关,从而可以初步估算船舶其他尺度指标和设计参数的初始近似值。在初步设计阶段,确定技术指标和设计参数近似值的大致范围会有一定的误差,这些参数在后续设计阶段将进一步细化。在误差范围内对初始值进行调整不会对某个性能指标的最优值产生较大影响,初步设计阶段确定的最优值可作为进一步改善其余船舶技术指标的约束条件,从而可以进一步确定该技术指标的最优值。  结果  采用叠加性优化设计性能指标和参数时,若将初始设计阶段确定的特征参数作为后续设计阶段的设计约束,可以逐次迭代确定目标船的性能指标和参数值。  结论  首先确定船舶参数的设计范围,然后以该确定的船型参数为约束条件,可以进一步细化冰区船的设计指标。     

Dealing with the efficient allocation of scarce resources at congested airports

The existing slot allocation mechanism, based on the International Air Transport Association (IATA) system and its complementary version of the European Union (EU) regulation, produces rather poor capacity allocation outcomes for congested EU airports since it fails to properly match slots requested with slots allocated to airlines. Inefficiencies during the initial allocation are mainly due to the problem complexity in conjunction to limited decision support available to slot coordinators. On the other hand, substantial inefficiencies give rise to severe slot misuse and unreasonably low utilisation of airport resources running already into scarcity. The objective of this paper is to develop an optimisation-based model implementing the existing EU/IATA rules, operational constraints, and coordination procedures with the ultimate objective to better accommodate airlines’ preferences at coordinated airports through the minimisation of the difference between the requested and the allocated slot times to airlines. The results of the model are assessed and compared vis-à-vis the allocation outcome produced according to current slot coordination practice in three regional Greek airports. The proposed model produces very promising results and demonstrates that there is large room for improvement of the efficiency of the current allocation outcome in a range between 14% and 95%. The discussion of the model results is complemented by a sensitivity analysis highlighting the importance of declared capacity and the magnitude of its influence on slot allocation efficiency.     

International logistics in Lithuania at a time of transition

This paper examines the current situation in the largest of the Baltic States - Lithuania - with respect to the development of international transport and logistics in the context of the severe political, economic and social changes that have taken place since 1991. Utilizing statistics previously unavailable for the region, the paper examines the impact of transition and the competitive role of East European carriers upon a specific international movement of electronic goods between Frankfurt/Main in Germany and Vilnius in Lithuania, developing a detailed cost model for the alternative modal choices that are available - road and ship/road. Rail transport is excluded as no international rail services between the two countries are available and there are no plans for such services in the near future. From this, a series of issues for the future in the context of potential EU membership, transport infrastructure developments and logistical trends is analysed.     

Why new technologies cannot radically improve the quality of urban transportation

In recent years a great deal of time and effort has been expended on the development of new modes of transport for cities. It is argued in this paper that this work is unlikely to be very productive because the major remaining flaw in the provision of transportation services—the inability of one mode to provide a good service to concentrated and dispersed trip ends—seems unavoidable. To make the required breakthrough a new mode must be frugal in its demands for space, flexible in its operation and fast. But an analysis of the performance of existing and prototype modes suggest that there is a fundamental technological barrier that precludes any one mode from performing well in more than two out of these three ways. This implies that any further improvements in travel for the urbanite must be made through existing modes and their derivatives and will be quite limited. It also suggests that the only possible way of substantially improving urban transportation is to build or rebuild towns so that one of the important mode attributes mentioned above is rendered superfluous.     

Personal travel management: the adoption and consideration of travel‐related strategies

Traveler behavior plays a role in the effectiveness of travel demand management (TDM) policies. Personal travel management is explored in this paper by analyzing individuals' adoption and consideration of 17 travel‐related alternatives in relation to socio‐demographic, mobility, travel‐related attitude, personality and lifestyle preference variables. The sample comprises 1282 commuters living in urban and suburban neighborhoods of the San Francisco Bay Area. Among the findings: females were more likely to have adopted/considered the more ‘costly’ strategies; those with higher mobility were more likely to have adopted/considered travel‐maintaining as well as travel‐reducing strategies; and those who like travel and want to do more are less likely to consider travel‐reducing strategies. These findings, when combined with those of earlier work on this subject, present a compelling argument for the need to further understand traveler behavior – particularly in response to congestion and TDM policies.