Reliability-based network flow estimation with day-to-day variation: A model validation on real large-scale urban networks

Day-to-day variation in the travel times of congested urban transportation networks is a frustrating phenomenon to the users of these networks. These users look pessimistically at the path travel times, and learn to spend additional time to safeguard against serious penalties that await late arrivals at the destinations. These additional expenses are charges similar to the tolls in system equilibrium flow problem, but may not be collected. With this conjecture, the user equilibrium (UE) formulation of congested network flow problem would lack some necessary factors in addressing appropriate path choices. This study, following a previous work proposing pessimistic UE (PUE) flow, aims to show how to measure this additional travel cost for a link, and investigates how different is PUE from UE, and when such differences are pronounced. Data are collected from the peak-hour travel times for the links of paths in the city of Tehran, to estimate the variance of travel times for typical links. Deterministic functions are obtained by calibrating the standard deviation of the daily variations of link travel times, and probabilistic functions by the technique of copula. UE and PUE traffic assignment models are built and applied to three large cities of Mashhad, Shiraz, and Tehran in Iran. The results show that the estimated flows by PUE model replicate the observed flows in screen lines much better than the UE model, particularly for longer trips. Since PUE is computationally equivalent to UE, this improvement is attained virtually at no cost.     

Mooring Damage Identification of Floating Wind Turbine Using a Non-Probabilistic Approach Under Different Environmental Conditions

This paper discusses the damage identification in the mooring line system of a floating wind turbine (FWT) exposed to various environmental loads. The proposed ...     

Seismic response of liquid-filled tank with baffles

In thispaper, the effects of a rigid baffle on the seismic response of liquid in a rigid cylindrical tank are evaluated. A baffle is an annular plate which supplies a kind of passive control on the effects of ground excitation. The contained liquid is assumed incompressible, inviscid and has irrotational motion. To estimate the seismic response, the method of superposition of modes has been applied. To analyze the rigid tank response, Laplace＆#39;s equation is considered as the governing equation of the fluid domain, in both time and frequency domains. The boundary element method （BEM） is employed to evaluate the natural modes of liquid in a cylindrical tank. To gain this goal, the fluid domain is divided into two upper and lower parts partitioned by the baffle. Linearized kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions of the free surface of the contained liquid have been considered.     

Investigation of pitch motion portion in vertical response at sides of a Tension-Leg Platform

Tendons vertically moor Tension-Leg Platforms (TLPs), thus, a deep understanding of physical tendon stresses requires the determination of the total axial deformation of the tendons, which is a combination of the heave, pitch, and surging responses. The vertical motion of the lateral sides of the TLP is coupled with surge and constitutes a portion of the pitch motion. Tendons are connected to the sides of the TLP; hence, the total displacement of the lateral sides is related to the total deformation of the tendons and the total axial stress. Therefore, investigating the total vertical response at the sides of the TLP is essential. The coupling between various degrees of freedom is not considered in the Response Amplitude Operator (RAO). Therefore, in frequency domain analysis, the estimated vertical RAO is incomplete. Also, in the time domain, only the heave motion at the center of TLP is typically studied; this problem needs to be addressed. In this paper, we investigate the portion of the pitch motion in the vertical response at the sides of the TLP in both the frequency and time domains. Numerical results demonstrate a significant effect of the pitch motion in the vertical motion of the edges of the TLP in some period ranges.     

Geometric stress distribution along the weld toe of the outer brace in two-planar tubular DKT-joints: Parametric study and deriving the SCF design equations

Regarding the research efforts expended so far on the calculation of stress concentration factors (SCFs) in tubular joints, two major shortcomings can be noted: (a) significant effort has been devoted to the study of SCFs in various uni-planar connections. Nevertheless, for multi-planar joints which cover the majority of practical applications, very few investigations have been reported due to the complexity and high cost involved; (b) majority of these research works focused on the study of SCFs at certain positions such as the saddle, crown toe, and crown heel, and they have ignored the hot-spot stress (HSS) at other positions along the weld toe. In the present paper, effects of dimensionless geometrical parameters on the SCF distribution along the weld toe of main (outer) braces in the axially loaded right-angle two-planar tubular DKT-joints are investigated. In order to study the multi-planar effect, SCF distribution in two-planar joints is compared with the distribution in a uni-planar joint having the same geometrical properties. A complete set of SCF database is constructed based on the two-planar DKT-joint Finite element models which are verified against experimental results and the predictions of Lloyd’s Register (LR) equations. The FE models cover a wide range of geometrical parameters. Six new SCF parametric formulae are developed through nonlinear regression analyses for the accurate and reliable fatigue design of two-planar DKT-joints under axial loads. An assessment study of these equations is conducted against the experimental data, the original FEM database and the acceptance criteria recommended by the UK Department of Energy.     

A multiple correspondence analysis of at‐fault motorcycle‐involved crashes in Alabama

According to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, in 2012, more than 4950 motorcyclists were killed in traffic accidents. Compared to passenger car occupants, mile for mile, motorcyclists are more than 26 times more at risk to dying in crashes. Due to the high fatality rate associated with motorcycle crashes, factors contributing to this type of crash must be identified in order to implement effective safety countermeasures. Given that the available datasets are large and complex, identifying the key factors contributing to crashes is a challenging task. Using multiple correspondence analysis, as an exploratory data analysis technique to determine the dataset structure, we identified the roadway/environmental, motorcycle, and motorcyclist‐related variables influencing at‐fault motorcycle‐involved crashes. This study used the latest available dataset (2009 to 2013) from the Critical Analysis Reporting Environment database to study motorcycle crashes in the state of Alabama. The most significant contributors to the frequency and severity of at‐fault motorcycle‐involved crashes were found to be light conditions, time of day, driver condition, and weather conditions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vehicle trajectory challenge in predictive active steering rollover prevention

High center of mass vehicles are likely to rollover in extreme maneuvers. Available works present control strategies to prevent rollover. In these works, however, other important parameters such as path trajectory tracking are not a main concern. In this paper conflicts between rollover prevention and trajectory tracking is investigated. Model predictive control (MPC) is adopted to predict and avoid rollover while tracking desired trajectory. For this regard a model based future error estimation is introduced. The control framework predicts both rollover and trajectory error simultaneously. It avoids rollover while tries to track the trajectory. Simulation results for two controllers with and without trajectory tracking are presented. The results indicate that the controllers effectively limit rollover as a hard constraint while the trajectory tracking controller also minimizes and recovers the path error.     

Consideration of different travel strategies and choice set sizes in transit path choice modelling

Transportation - Path choice modelling is typically conducted by considering a subset of paths, not the universal set of all feasible paths as this is computationally challenging. This study...     

Developing an activity-based trip generation model for small/medium size planning agencies

The primary shortcoming of traditional four-step models is that they cannot capture derived travel demand behaviors. However, travel demand modeling (TDM) is an essential input for urban transportation planning. TDM needs to be highly precise and accurate by integrating the accurate base year estimation along with suitable alternatives. Currently, activity-based models (ABMs) have been developed mostly for large metropolitan planning organizations (MPO), whereas smaller/medium-sized MPOs typically lack these models. The main reason for this disparity in ABM development is the complexity of the models and the cost and data requirements needed. We posit however that smaller MPOs could develop ABMs from traditional travel surveys. Therefore, the specific aim of this paper is to develop a probabilistic home-based destination activity trip generation model considering travel time behavior. Results show that the developed model can significantly capture the actual number of trip generations.     

A structured flexible transit system for low demand areas

Public transit structure is traditionally designed to contain fixed bus routes and predetermined bus stations. This paper presents an alternative flexible-route transit system, in which each bus is allowed to travel across a predetermined area to serve passengers, while these bus service areas collectively form a hybrid “grand” structure that resembles hub-and-spoke and grid networks. We analyze the agency and user cost components of this proposed system in idealized square cities and seek the optimum network layout, service area of each bus, and bus headway, to minimize the total system cost. We compare the performance of the proposed transit system with those of comparable systems (e.g., fixed-route transit network and taxi service), and show how each system is advantageous under certain passenger demand levels. It is found out that under low-to-moderate demand levels, the proposed flexible-route system tends to have the lowest system cost.