A flexible spatially dependent discrete choice model: Formulation and application to teenagers’ weekday recreational activity participation

This study proposes a simple and practical Composite Marginal Likelihood (CML) inference approach to estimate ordered-response discrete choice models with flexible copula-based spatial dependence structures across observational units. The approach is applicable to data sets of any size, provides standard error estimates for all parameters, and does not require any simulation machinery. The combined copula–CML approach proposed here should be appealing for general multivariate modeling contexts because it is simple and flexible, and is easy to implementThe ability of the CML approach to recover the parameters of a spatially ordered process is evaluated using a simulation study, which clearly points to the effectiveness of the approach. In addition, the combined copula–CML approach is applied to study the daily episode frequency of teenagers’ physically active and physically inactive recreational activity participation, a subject of considerable interest in the transportation, sociology, and adolescence development fields. The data for the analysis are drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Survey. The results highlight the value of the copula approach that separates the univariate marginal distribution form from the multivariate dependence structure, as well as underscore the need to consider spatial effects in recreational activity participation. The variable effects indicate that parents’ physical activity participation constitutes the most important factor influencing teenagers’ physical activity participation levels. Thus, an effective way to increase active recreation among teenagers may be to direct physical activity benefit-related information and education campaigns toward parents, perhaps at special physical education sessions at the schools of teenagers.     

Applications of intuitionistic fuzzy set aggregation operators in transport multi-factor project evaluation

Abstract

An intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) is a generalisation of a fuzzy set characterised by a truth membership function and a false membership function. The former is a lower bound on the grade of membership of the evidence in favour of a particular element belonging to the set and the latter is a lower bound on the negation of that element belonging to the set derived from evidence against that element belonging to the set. A similar concept is a vague set, though vague sets have been shown to be identical to IFSs. In the context of project evaluation, an IFS may be used to represent the degree to which a project satisfies a criterion and the degree to which it does not. Aggregation of such IFSs has been considered in recent years to identify a best project in terms of several criteria or factors. A particular desirable way to aggregate IFS is in terms of an ordered weighted average (OWA) which can be expressed in different forms such as arithmetic and geometric. In an OWA operator, weights are applied to the position of an element in the aggregation. In addition, hybrid OWA operators may be developed to not only weight the position of elements in the aggregation but the element itself. An example is given relating to the Kuranda Range Road upgrade (Queensland, Australia) which is limited by grade, poor overtaking opportunities, poor horizontal alignment and other constraints and the road is expected to become increasingly congested over the next few years. A more flexible multi-factor decision method is used to identify a ‘best’ project from a set of four alternative projects.     

Development of a biology inspired manufacturing system for machining transmission cases

Disruptions in automated manufacturing systems for machining automotive parts caused by system changes and disturbances reduce the productivity, and increase the downtime as well as the cost of products. To cope with these challenges, the paper presents a biology inspired manufacturing system (Bio-MS). The model of Bio-MS is inherited from the organization of the living systems in biology and nature such as ant colony, school of fish, bee’s foraging behaviors, and so on. In which, the resources of the manufacturing system are considered as biological organisms, which are autonomous entities so that the manufacturing system has the advanced characteristics inspired from biology such as self-adaptation, self-diagnosis, and self-healing. To realize the Bio-MS, the cognitive agent and swarm intelligence were proposed. The disturbances happening when machining the transmission cases at an automotive company in Korea were analyzed to classify them and to find out the corresponding management methods. Currently, the system utilization was too low due to the manual recovery, only 70–76 percent of total production time is used for manufacturing and the rest of the time is wasted in different disturbances. The Bio-MS with autonomous behaviors adapts efficiently to the changes of the manufacturing environment. It enables to increase the system utilization more than 80 percent.     

尾涡/固体边界交互作用下表面压力的数值模拟

当强劲的尾涡撞击到结构时,其表面压力将呈现大幅的变化.这种大幅变化的脉动压力是引起结构震动以及水动力噪声的主要原因之一.许多相关的工程领域都希望使用相对经济的方法对此压力脉动进行有效地预报.本文介绍一种已经嵌入一面元法程序(PROPELLA)的尾涡砰击模型,及其在一吊舱桨尾涡撞击支柱诱导表面压力模拟中的应用.由模拟的时均表面压力分布和相均压力的时序变化与对应的实验数据的比较来看,数值模拟与试验结果吻合较好.     

Changes in the shelf macrobenthic community over large temporal and spatial scales in the Bohai Sea, China

Over the past 20 years, the Bohai Sea has been subjected to a considerable human impact through over-fishing and pollution. Together with the influence of the Yellow River cut-off, the ecosystem experienced a dramatic change. In order to integrate available information to detect any change in macrobenthic community structure and diversity over space and time, data collected during the 1980s and the 1990s from 3 regions of the Bohai Sea (Laizhou Bay, 16 stations, 37–38°N, 119–120.5°E; central Bohai Sea, 25 stations, 38–39°N, 119–121°E; eastern Bohai Bay, 12 stations, 38–39°N, 118.5–119°E) were reanalyzed in a comparative way by means of a variety of statistical techniques. A considerable change in community structure between the 1980s and the 1990s and over the geographical regions at both the species and family level were revealed. After 10 years, there was a considerable increase in abundance of small polychaetes, bivalves and crustaceans but decreased number of echinoderms. Once abundant in Laizhou Bay in the 1980s, a large echinoderm Echinocardium cordatum and a small mussel Musculista senhousia almost disappeared from the surveying area in the 1990s. Coupled with the increased abundance was the increased species richness in general whereas evenness was getting lower in central Bohai Sea and Bohai Bay but increased in Laizhou Bay. K-dominance plot showed the same trend as evenness J′. After 10 years, the macrobenthic diversity in the Bohai Sea as a whole was slightly reduced and a diversity ranking of central Bohai Sea > Laizhou Bay > eastern Bohai Bay over space was also suggested. Sediment granulometry and organic content were the two major agents behind the observed changes.     

Mass balance of trace metals in the Adriatic Sea

A first order mass balance of six different trace metals (Mn, Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni) was presented for a 1-year period for the different compartments of the Adriatic Sea: compartment 1 (northern Adriatic Sea), compartment 2 (central Adriatic Sea and surface layer of the southern Adriatic Sea) and compartment 3 (deep water of the southern Adriatic Sea). The Adriatic Sea appeared to be a source of dissolved Cu, Mn and Fe for the Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Otranto whereas for dissolved Zn and Pb the Adriatic Sea appeared to be a net sink. For dissolved Ni, inputs and outputs through the Strait of Otranto balanced each other. The residence times of all metals in compartment 1 were significantly shorter than that of water indicating significant removal. In compartments 2 and 3, residence times of Mn and Fe were relatively short suggesting removal from the water column whereas for the other metals their residence times were similar to that of water. Calculations of turnover times of metals with respect to different processes showed that in compartments 1 and 2, sedimentation was the main process that affected the content of the reservoirs whereas in compartment 3, the water flux exchanges played an important role for Zn, Cu and Ni.Most of the metals clearly undergo a very dynamic cycle of sedimentation/remobilization particularly in the Northern Adriatic Sea. In the northern Adriatic Sea, most of the Mn and Fe in deposited sediment were remobilized. This was related to diagenetic processes involving the utilisation and solubilisation of Mn and Fe oxides, which occur in the surface of the sediment in the northern Adriatic Sea. In the central Adriatic Sea, remobilization of Mn and Fe was less than in the northern Adriatic Sea, suggesting that diagenesis processes appear deeper in the sediment. Advective transport of sediment was a major source of metals for the deep basin. As much as 80% of the sediments in the South Adriatic Pit might be advected from the shelf. Remobilization fluxes in the South Adriatic Pit were significantly less than in the Northern and Central Adriatic Sea reflecting hemi-pelagic sediments.     

Risk management methods for the liner shipping industry: the case of the Bunker Adjustment Factor

Through the implementation of the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF), a shipowner is able to transfer the risk of fuel price fluctuation to the shipper. This and other surcharges are generally undesired by shippers who must pay this fee. The research presented provides an alternative method of risk management that is more effective than the current method, while responding to customer service demands for simplified tariffs. By strategic use of commodity futures, the shipowner is able to better reduce his/her risk exposure, transferring it to willing parties at the futures exchanges, thereby eliminating the need for the bunker surcharge.     

Options-Based Multi-Objective Evaluation of Product Platforms

A platform is the set of elements and interfaces that are common to a family of products. Design teams must choose among feasible platform concepts upon which a product family could be based, often involving new technologies. Multiple performance objectives need to be considered. A standard approach is to convert the performance outcomes into financial figures, which can then be weighed against the required investments. However, it is not always possible to transform performance outcomes (benefits) into monetary terms, such as in defense or highly technical projects. A multi-objective form of real-options-based platform selection is developed. Systems are compared based on multiple technical and economic goals, incorporating uncertainty by representing the unknown factors during the subsequent development process with probability distributions. The range of uncertain outcomes is integrated into single expected measures of effectiveness, which can then be applied to select the most appropriate platform and set of support product variants. An application to the design of platform-based families of naval high-speed ships is shown.     

Large-scale physical controls on phytoplankton growth in the Irminger Sea Part I: Hydrographic zones, mixing and stratification

Hydrographic surveys in three consecutive seasons in the Irminger Sea in 2001/2002 have revealed six physical regimes (zones) in which different surface mixing and spring re-stratification processes dominate. They are the South Irminger Current, the North Irminger Current, the Central Irminger Sea, the Polar-origin East Greenland Current, the Atlantic-origin East Greenland Current and the Reykjanes Ridge. The variations in restratification processes in particular have significant implications for the timing of shallow spring mixed layer development and therefore the timing and strength of the spring bloom. The relative roles of heat and freshwater in controlling re-stratification are examined for each hydrographic zone, and it is shown that the simplest concept of solar warming generating spring stratification is appropriate for the Irminger Current and the central Irminger Sea. However in the East Greenland Current and the Reykjanes Ridge zones, the springtime arrival of fresh or saline water at the surface dominates re-stratification and generates the earliest and strongest spring blooms of the region. In the cool fresh centre of the Irminger Sea the relatively low chlorophyll-a throughout the year cannot be wholly explained by stratification or nutrient concentrations. Details of the annual cycle in temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a and nutrients are presented for each hydrographic zone.     

A Low-Cost Transfer Function Identification Technique for Automotive Suspensions

An alternative technique for identifying the transfer function of automotive suspension systems is presented in this paper. The method establishes a frequency response from which the transfer function can be determined by using a low cost test rig developed for the purpose. This results in a transfer function matrix which can include asymmetry in the suspension, tyre stiffness and damping. The technique is validated by comparing results for a two-wheeled trailer with those obtained on a conventional hydraulic test rig. Results from this procedure may be used to evaluate passive or active suspension systems or to feed into a suspension modelling process for such purposes as active suspension control strategy development.