Effect of proposed CO2 emission reduction scenarios on capital expenditure

The International Maritime Organisation is currently working on establishing regulations for international shipping regarding greenhouse gas emissions, and a cost-effectiveness approach has been suggested as one method for determining the necessary reductions in emissions from shipping. Previous studies have investigated the CO₂ emission reduction potential for the world shipping fleet up to 2030 and the associated marginal abatement cost levels. To analyse the cost implications of different emission reduction scenarios, this study has calculated the emission reduction potential and additional capital expenditure for 25 CO₂ emission reduction measures applied to 59 ship segments. The expected fleet development over time, keeping track of new ships built from 2010 to 2030 and Existing ships built prior to 2010 and still in operation by 2030, have been modelled. Two alternative approaches to find the cost-effective potential in the world shipping fleet have been applied. One approach is to implement only measures which in themselves are cost-effective (measure-by-measure), and another approach is to implement measures as long as the net savings from cost-effective measures balance the costs of non-cost-effective measures (set of measures). The results demonstrate that by 2030, the majority (93%) of the reduction potential will be related to new ships. Our results show that the measure-by-measure approach would decrease the CO₂ emissions by 30% for new ships while the set-of-measures approach with 53% (of the 2030 baseline emissions of 1316?Mt). The implication of achieving such emission reduction is an increase in the capital expenditure on New ships by 6% (USD 183 billion) and 27% (USD 761 billion), respectively, in the period 2010 to 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The measure-by-measure approach yields a 5% decrease in CO₂ emission per 1% increase in capital expenditure, while the set-of-measures approach yields a 2% decrease per 1% increase. This is due to the significant variation in capital intensity of the different measures, ranging from almost zero to USD 200 per tonne of CO₂ averted. The results of this study are useful for the shipping industry to assess the economic burden that must be shouldered in order to implement abatement measures under different CO₂ emission reduction scenarios.     

矩形槽道采用不同冷却介质的传热与阻力特性分析(英文)

Several industrial applications such as electronic devices,heat exchangers,gas turbine blades,etc.need cooling processes.The internal cooling technique is proper for some applications.In the present work,computational simulations were made using ANSYS CFX to predict the improvements of internal heat transfer in the rectangular ribbed channel using different coolants.Several coolants such as air,steam,air/mist and steam/mist were investigated.The shear stress transport model(SST)is selected by comparing the standard k-ωand Omega Reynolds Stress(ωRS)turbulence models with experimental results.The results indicate that the heat transfer coefficients are enhanced in the ribbed channel while injecting small amounts of mist.The heat transfer coefficients of air/mist,steam and steam/mist increase by 12.5%,49.5%and 107%over that of air,respectively.Furthermore,in comparison to air,the air/mist heat transfer coefficient enhances by about 1.05 to 1.14 times when the mist mass fraction increases from 2%to 8%,respectively.The steam/mist heat transfer coefficient increases by about 1.12 to 1.27 times higher than that of steam over the considered range of mist mass fraction.     

冰荷载作用下护岸结构数值模拟

季节性冰冻河流春季开江产生的流冰会严重威胁堤防建筑物的安全,开展流冰对结构物的碰撞规律研究十分必要。为此,以松花江汤原县胜利堤护岸结构为例,利用ANSYS/LS-DYNA软件,基于结构地质地形,考虑松花江春季江面开化流冰情况,建立计入冰荷载作用下的护岸结构数值分析模型,开展护岸结构在冰排撞击作用下的有限元分析研究,理清结构承载变化规律,为季节性冰冻地区护岸结构的设计及后期维护提供理论参考和技术支持。     

Formal Safety Assessment: an updated review

The method of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) was devised several years ago with the intent to help the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and other policy makers formulate policies and regulations by the proper use of the scientific method in matters pertaining to maritime safety and the protection of the marine environment. A host of FSA studies have been submitted over the last several years and have been reviewed by the IMO. Also, progress has been recently accomplished as regards incorporating environmental risk evaluation criteria within FSA. On the basis of these developments, revisions of the FSA guidelines have been proposed and adopted. This paper presents a review of the FSA method in light of these developments. This review updates an earlier review of FSA by Kontovas and Psaraftis [Marine Technol 46(1):45?C59, (2009)]. It also takes this opportunity to identify some deficiencies of FSA, either due to an incorrect application of the method or to the method itself, and makes some suggestions for further action in this area.     

Northern Abalone: Using an Invertebrate to Focus Marine Conservation Ideas and Values

Marine invertebrate species have usually been overlooked in favor of high-profile vertebrate species for facilitating dialogue towards area conservation. The northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana) is proposed as a focal ("flagship") species whose protection and recovery could concentrate public concern for abalone and its associated kelp forest ecosystems in Haida Gwaii (Queen Charlotte Islands), British Columbia. I explain how issues of culture, commerce, and conservation unite to create a strong role for northern abalone in preparations for creating a large marine conservation area within Haida Gwaii. Culture is relevant, as local indigenous people (the Haida) are currently denied access to constitutionally established subsistence fishing rights for northern abalone. Commerce is involved as ongoing kelp forest-associated fisheries co-occur with northern abalone. Finally, this is a challenging precedent in Canadian marine conservation, as restoring two "listed" species- at risk (northern abalone and their predator, the sea otter (Enhydra lutris)) is potentially mutually exclusive. As part of the forthcoming public consultations towards establishing a marine conservation area, the opportunity provided by northern abalone to focus ideas and values should be seized.     

The dynamic relationships between paper petroleum refining and physical trade of crude oil into the United States

This article examines the relationship between refinery margins traded on paper using petroleum futures (the paper refinery) and the physical trade of crude oil into the US. Computations of a 3:2:1 crack spread were constructed using daily observations of second- and third-nearby unleaded gasoline and heating oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NY MEX) and spot Brent crude oil prices. The crack spread represents the margin between the cost of crude oil feed stock today and the value of the products produced by a refinery in the future. Unit root tests on each of the time series found crack spreads to be stationary while crude oil imports were found to be non-stationary. A s the two series were found to be integrated of different order, cointegration analysis of the two series was not deemed appropriate. Instead, linear relationships between crack spreads and imports were examined using causality tests. It was found that the 2-month 3:2:1 crack spread Granger-causes crude oil imports and that this causality is unidirectional. The significance of these findings lies in the fact that other industries like tanker shipping derive their demand from the demand for, and trade in, petroleum. Crack spreads, therefore, can provide a leading indicator for short term developments in tanker demand. For a chartering manager who has ships on the spot market, crack spreads can help him/her anticipate demand developments and influence vessel deployment and chartering decisions.     

Route choice of cyclists in Zurich

This paper presents the first route choice model for bicyclists estimated from a large sample of GPS observations and overcomes the limitations inherent in the generally employed stated preference approach. It employs an improved mode detection algorithm for GPS post-processing to determine trips made by bicycle, which are map matched to an enriched street network. The alternatives are generated as a random sample from an exhaustive, but constrained search. Accounting for the similarity between the alternatives with the path-size factor the MNL estimates show that the elasticity with regards to trip length is nearly four times larger than that with respect to the share of bike paths. The elasticity with respect to the product of length and maximum gradient of the route is small. No other variable describing the routes had an impact. The heterogeneity of the cyclists is captured through interaction terms formulated on their average behaviour.     

Comparison of HC species from diesel combustion modes and characterization of a heat-up doc formulation

This study summarizes engine speed and load effects on HC species emissions from premixed charge compression ignition (PCI) and conventional diesel combustion, and it evaluates diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) formulations on a gas flow reactor for the purpose of diesel particulate filter regeneration or lean NO_x trap desulfation. HC emissions are sampled simultaneously by a Tedlar bag for light HC species and by a Tenax TA™ adsorption trap for semi-volatile HC species, and they are analyzed by gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector. The bulk temperature and residence time during combustion are key parameters that are important for understanding the effects of speed and load on engine-out HC emissions. The degree of post-flame oxidation is higher in PCI than in conventional combustion, and it is increased for PCI with a higher speed and load, as indicated by a lower fuel alkanes/THC ratio, a higher alkenes/fuel alkanes ratio, and a higher methane/THC ratio. Ethene and n-undecane are two representative HC species, and they are used as a surrogate mixture in the gas flow reactor to simulate PCI and conventional combustion with in-cylinder post fuel injection. Among the three DOC formulations tested, the catalyst with constituent precious metals of platinum and palladium (PtPd) showed the best light-off performance, followed by PtPd with an addition of cerium dioxide (PtPd+CeO₂), and platinum (Pt), regardless of exhaust compositions. Conventional combustion exhaust composition shows a lower light-off temperature than that of PCI, regardless of catalyst formulation.     

Automotive structure vibration with component mode synthesis on a multi-level

The recursive component mode synthesis method (RCMS) has been implemented for the finite element analysis model of an automobile structure as an efficient free vibration analysis tool. The RCMS method is intended to obtain a better performance relative to the block Lanczos method, which is a traditional method in the industry of obtaining eigenvalues, while obtaining the acceptable accuracy. A numerical example of the automobile finite element model demonstrates the outstanding performance of RCMS compared to the block Lanczos method.