基于约束卡尔曼滤波的短时交通流量组合预测模型

为了克服单一的交通流预测模型性能不稳定的问题,提出了基于约束卡尔曼滤波的短时交通流量组合预测模型。约束卡尔曼滤波组合预测模型以各单一预测模型的权重为状态变量,交通流量为观测变量,预测结果是单一预测模型的加权和,加权系数由约束卡尔曼滤波方程递推动态确定,最后通过广深高速公路上采集的交通流量数据对算法进行了验证。结果表明,在不同预测步长情况下,约束卡尔曼滤波组合预测模型要优于最佳的单一预测模型或与其持平,并且不受某一较差的预测模型影响,具有较高的鲁棒性。     

区域交通可达性测算方法分析

可达性是反映区域空间结构与交通网络关系的重要指标。为了对区域的可达性进行准确描述,以引导人口和产业合理分布、完善区域综合交通网络建设,在国内外已有可达性研究成果的基础上,结合我国区域发展和交通网络建设现状,从客运和货运2个角度建立区域节点城市和区域整体可达性指标模型,并利用新模型对北京都市圈的可达性进行实证性测算研究。     

Driver behavior formulation in intersection dilemma zones with phone use distraction via a logit-Bayesian network hybrid approach

Use of cellular phone while driving is one of the top contributing factors that induce traffic crashes, resulting in significant loss of life and property. A dilemma zone is a circumstance near signalized intersections where drivers hesitate when making decisions related to their driving behaviors. Therefore, the dilemma zone has been identified as an area with high crash potential. This article utilizes a logit-based Bayesian network (BN) hybrid approach to investigate drivers' decision patterns in a dilemma zone with phone use, based on experimental data from driving simulations from the National Advanced Driving Simulator (NADS). Using a logit regression model, five variables were found to be significant in predicting drivers' decisions in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks: older drivers (50–60 years old), yellow signal length, time to stop line, handheld phone tasks, and driver gender. The identified significant variables were then used to train a BN model to predict drivers' decisions at a dilemma zone and examine probabilistic impacts of these variables on drivers' decisions. The analysis results indicate that the trained BN model was effective in driver decision prediction and variable influence extraction. It was found that older drivers, a short yellow signal, a short time to stop line, nonhandheld phone tasks, and female drivers are factors that tend to result in drivers proceeding through intersections in a dilemma zone with phone use distraction. These research findings provide insight in understanding driver behavior patterns in a dilemma zone with distractive phone tasks.     

中美PHEV能耗评价方法对比研究

研究了中国和美国对于插电式混合动力乘用车( PHEV)油耗与电耗的评价方法。通过从测试标准与指标计算两方面进行对比,指出了我国现行PHEV能耗评价方法中的不足,包括PHEV能耗标签的缺失、不能获得混合式PHEV的续驶里程和未考虑出行特征对PHEV能耗的影响等。最后提出了加强出行特征研究以完善我国PHEV能耗评价方法的建议。     

桥墩防落石碰撞柔性设计方法及分析

基于动力学基本原理,从非线性、接触以及本构关系计算理论建立落石-桥墩防撞物柔性碰撞精细化计算模型,并对关键计算参数给出建议取值.利用钢结构柔性变形吸收落石碰撞能量,提出一种桥墩防落石碰撞柔性设计方法,并详细给出该防落石碰撞构造措施的结构组成形式.利用ANSYS/LS-DYNA动力分析计算程序,考虑几何、材料双重非线性,精细化数值仿真计算落石撞击防撞物的动态全过程,以一个偏安全的极限碰撞状态,分别从运动行为(撞击力、位移、速度、加速度)以及能量转换(系统动能、系统变形能)角度进行计算结果与数据分析,证明所提出的柔性防撞设计思路以及防撞措施的合理性与优越性.     

污水厂活性污泥生物的指示作用

通过对活性污泥生物的深入研究 ,指出了其与环境变化的关系 ,确立活性污泥中指示生物的监测技术 ,并使其应用于污水处理生产运行质量控制的程序中去。对确保生产运行的稳定具有重要意义     

烧结机破碎齿耐磨堆焊层的金相分析

烧结机破碎辊的单(双)齿是承受高温冲击磨损的工件.本文对其堆焊层的金相组织、高温性能及抗磨性进行了测试与分析,采用高温金相、透射电镜、电子探针等检测手段,查明了堆焊层的组织构造.通过微区成分分析证实骨络状组织为 Fe4(Cr,Mo)2C型复合碳化物.文中还对自行研制的 L2型高温耐磨堆焊焊条堆焊层的组织性能进行了分析,证实其性能完全满足烧络机单(双)齿辊的技术要求.     

东风型内燃机车排气阀等离子焊修次数合理性的探讨

本文采用焊接热模拟方法,研究了机车柴油机排气阀(基材为4Cr14Ni14W2Mo 钢)等离子堆焊修复次数,以及“堆焊+时效”次数对其热影响区的过热区组织和性能的影响.试验结果表明,对排气阀的等离子焊修次数以不超过3次为宜.     

Urban travel demand: The impact of Box-Cox transformations with nonspherical residual errors

We develop an algorithm for solving regression models with Box-Cox transformations on both the dependent and independent variables, while simultaneously taking into account corrections for serial correlation of several orders and for heteroscedasticity. The latter correction is of a general form which contains as special cases most specifications of heteroscedasticity found in practice. We apply the procedure to three urban travel demand functions, two of which are currently used in their linear form by the Montreal Transit Authority, and analyze more than 100 specifications. Our results show that taking into account nonsphericalness of the residuals has a major impact on model parameter estimates, notably on those which determine the functional form of the model, and that, conversely, modifications of the functional form have strong implications for both the structure of autocorrelation and the importance of heteroscedasticity; moreover, we find interactions between autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity structures. We introduce a special measure of elasticity for variables which contain zero observations, particularly dummy variables. Moreover, we find that elasticities of demand and implicit values of time depend to a large extent on the stochastic specification of the model.     

水下航行体通气超空泡的实验研究

为了研究超空泡的减阻效果,保证在较低流速下生成超空泡,在水洞中开展了水下航行体通气超空泡的实验研究.采用通气的方法在较低水速下(V=7-15 m/s)生成人工通气超空泡,通过改变通气率和弗洛德数,获得了不同条件下通气空泡的长度,给出了通气空泡长度与通气率及弗洛德数的经验公式.研究表明,来流速度不变时,空泡长度随通气率的增加而增加,空泡长度一定时,通气率随弗洛德数的增加而减少;重力场造成了空泡形态的严重不对称,通过比较相同空化数下自然空泡与通气空泡的长度,定量地给出了弗洛德数对通气空泡长度的影响.当Fr=43.74时,重力场对通气空泡长度的影响几乎可以忽略.