Transport demand model estimation from traffic counts

Many problems in transport planning and management tasks require an origindestination (O-D) matrix to represent the travel pattern. However, O-D matrices obtained through a large scale survey such as home or roadside interviews, tend to be costly, labour intensive and time disruptive to trip makers. Therefore, the use of low cost and easily available data is particularly attractive.The need of low-cost methods to estimate current and future O-D matrices is even more valuable in developing countries because of the rapid changes in population, economic activity and land use. Models of transport demand have been used for many years to synthesize O-D matrices in study areas. A typical example of this is the gravity model; its functional form, plus the appropriate values for the parameters involved, is employed to produce acceptable matrices representing trip making behaviour for many trip purposes and time periods.The work reported in this paper has combined the advantages of acceptable travel demand models with the low cost and availability of traffic counts. Three types of demand models have been used: gravity (GR), opportunity (OP) and gravity-opportunity (GO) models. Three estimation methods have been developed to calibrate these models from traffic counts, namely: non-linear-least-squares (NLLS), weighted-non-linear-least-squares (WNLLS) and maximumlikelihood (ML).The 1978 Ripon (urban vehicle movement) survey was used to test these methods. They were found to perform satisfactorily since each calibrated model reproduced the observed O-D matrix fairly closely. The tests were carried out using two assignment techniques, all-or-nothing and the stochastic method due to Burrell, in determining the routes taken through the network.requests for offprints     

Self-Excited Vibrations of Railway Vehicle with Dry Friction Units

Some results obtained during developing a new approach to analysis of conditions of self-excitation of lateral vibrations of railway vehicles as systems of variable structure are given in this article. Structure variability is conditioned by the state of constraints with dry friction. An idea of the replacement of a nonlinear multibody system by a number of subsystems, which are linearized in a certain way, is worked out. The efficiency of the method suggested for the determination of the characteristics of self-excited vibrations of active multibody systems with dry friction is illustrated by way of an example of the investigation of the dynamic behaviour of a freight car.     

Measuring the impacts of weather variability on home-based trip chaining behaviour: a focus on spatial heterogeneity

Using the 2011 Swedish national travel survey data, this paper explores the influence of weather characteristics on individuals’ home-based trip chaining complexity. A series of panel mixed ordered Probit models are estimated to examine the influence of individual/household social demographics, land use characteristics, and weather characteristics on individuals’ home-based trip chaining complexity. A thermal index, the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), is used in this study instead of using directly measured weather variables in order to better approximate the effects of the thermal environment. The effects of UTCI are segmented into different seasons to account for the seasonal difference of UTCI effects. Moreover, a spatial expansion method is applied to allow the impacts of UTCI to vary across geographical locations, as individuals in different regions have different weather/climate adaptions. The effects of weather are examined in subsistence, routine, and discretionary trip chains. The results reveal that the ‘ground covered with snow’ condition is the most influential factor on the number of trips chained per trip chain among all other weather factors. The variation of UTCI significantly influences trip chaining complexity in autumn but not in spring and winter. The routine trip chains are found to be most elastic towards the variation of UTCI. The marginal effects of UTCI on the expected number of trips per routine trip chain have considerable spatial variations, while these spatial trends of UTCI effects are found to be not consistent over seasons.     

Governance for Sustainable Coastal Futures

The mobile nature of soft coasts means that coastal communities face uncertainty in their property values and peace of mind when the existing coastal defense is lowered or removed. The acceptance by the U.K. government that coastal realignment in areas of low population density and limited ecological value is unavoidable means that the current state of affairs, where coastal residents have broadly come to assume that they will be defended if they make enough fuss, cannot continue. The government is currently unwilling to confront this consternation and continues to refuse to pay compensation for lost property value. This is creating an outcry over loss of fairness of treatment. This dispute raises important questions of governance for coastal change. This participatory research project worked closely with English Nature, North Norfolk District Council, local residents associations, the Environment Agency, and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. What emerged in the analysis were unresolved tensions between national strategic frameworks, emerging planning arrangements, changing economic assessments, and the desirability of delivering, through a number of public and voluntary agencies, local flexibility in participation and in coastal design. This article reports on the research process, the challenges for coastal governance, and the scope for creative partnerships between science, planning, policy delivery, and public acceptance.     

Gendered immobility: influence of social roles and local context on mobility decisions in Pakistan

This paper examines the instances of one-day immobility in Pakistan and reports its socio-demographic determinants using the nationally representative dataset of the 2007 Pakistan Time Use Survey. Of 37,830 time diary respondents, nearly 30% did not report travel during the diary day. Homemakers and those out of the workforce were more likely to be immobile than employed or student respondents. Immobility rates were very high among women (55%) as compared to men (4%). Among women, those between 20 and 34 years of age, married, with children, having better education, dependent on other household members and those living in higher income households were more likely to be immobile. The excessive gender nature of immobility seems to be triggered by a gender-based sociocultural environment, which restricts female mobility due to family honor concerns. Other than this, those living in the provinces of Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or in urban areas were more likely to be immobile than those living in Punjab and Sindh provinces or in rural areas. The significant geographic effect at broader spatial scale is caused by the demographic structure as well as due to differences in the social and cultural context of these areas. Finally, questions regarding the measurement of immobility and the potential implications of increased female immobility are discussed.     

The use of a hazard-based duration model for imputation of missing personal income data

This paper suggests using a proportional hazard model to predict personal income, for the purpose of imputing missing income data in household travel surveys. The model has a hazard function that comprises two multiplicative components: (1) a non-parametric baseline hazard function that is dependent only on the income level and (2) a function that is dependent only on the other personal attributes of the survey respondents (excluding income). To estimate and validate the model, data is drawn from a travel characteristics survey conducted in Hong Kong in year 2001. The model is found to have a much higher accuracy when compared with a conventional ordered probit model based on the assumption that the logarithm of income is normally distributed.

耦合式单轴转向架

介绍1种新型的径向设计方案——耦合式单轴转向架。该转向架在各种半径的曲线线路上具有非常理想的通过性能,而且在改善曲线通过性能的同时,可提高车辆的直线运行稳定性。通过试验确认了该转向架具有良好的动力学性能。