An application of variance reduction techniques in freeway simulation

Computer simulation models are used in a variety of applications in transportation engineering and have become a prime aid in decision making. The applications range from evaluating traffic control strategies for single intersections to such complex decision processes as evaluating the impact of removing toll facilities at the George Washington Bridge in New York City. While it is widely accepted that simulation offers an unmatchable capability of evaluating alternate control policies, the high variance of the output variable presents a critical problem in such comparative analyses. The simulation models with high output variance must be run longer or replicated many times to achieve a desired precision level, and that corresponds to increased cost of computer resources. This paper describes and illustrates the application of variance reduction concepts that can improve the reliability and efficiency of the simulation experimental process by taking advantage of the simulation model structure. The two variance reduction concepts (common random numbers and antithetic variates) reduce the variance of the output variable by replacing the original sampling procedure with a new procedure that yields the same expected value but with a smaller variance. The application of the variance reduction concept was illustrated using results from experiments with a freeway simulation model. The results indicate that both common random numbers and antithetic variates sampling procedures appreciably reduce the variance of the simulation output measure.     

Roll Dynamics of Commercial Vehicles

An analytical model is developed here for studying the roll dynamics of commercial vehicles. Large displacements and rotations are accounted for in this nonlinear model so that it can be used for the study of roll dynamics well beyond the limits of wheel lift-off. The model is used to illustrate some of the dynamic phenomena in vehicle rollover, especially the interactive coupling between the roll and the vertical modes of motion. The influence of suspension backlash on rollover resistance is demonstrated, and the phenomenon of roll motion resonance is illustrated to suggest new means for evaluating vehicle rollover sensitivity.     

The dynamic relationships between paper petroleum refining and physical trade of crude oil into the United States

This article examines the relationship between refinery margins traded on paper using petroleum futures (the paper refinery) and the physical trade of crude oil into the US. Computations of a 3:2:1 crack spread were constructed using daily observations of second- and third-nearby unleaded gasoline and heating oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NY MEX) and spot Brent crude oil prices. The crack spread represents the margin between the cost of crude oil feed stock today and the value of the products produced by a refinery in the future. Unit root tests on each of the time series found crack spreads to be stationary while crude oil imports were found to be non-stationary. A s the two series were found to be integrated of different order, cointegration analysis of the two series was not deemed appropriate. Instead, linear relationships between crack spreads and imports were examined using causality tests. It was found that the 2-month 3:2:1 crack spread Granger-causes crude oil imports and that this causality is unidirectional. The significance of these findings lies in the fact that other industries like tanker shipping derive their demand from the demand for, and trade in, petroleum. Crack spreads, therefore, can provide a leading indicator for short term developments in tanker demand. For a chartering manager who has ships on the spot market, crack spreads can help him/her anticipate demand developments and influence vessel deployment and chartering decisions.     

Comment Some reflections on port competition in the United States and western Europe

'Port competition' is a rather puzzling expression. This paper approaches it literally, searching for precise meanings. In seaports that contain complex and changeable mixtures of public and private enterprise, who competes and why? The answers to these questions are not conclusive but suggestive indications are found in the US, UK and northwestern Europe. Finally, we discuss what seem to be the key influential factors which may impact on the competitiveness of a port.     

Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine Resources: Bohol Marine Triangle,Philippines

This article provides results on the net benefits generated from the natural resources in the Bohol Marine Triangle (BMT) in the Philippines. The BMT spans over 112,000 ha and its coastal ecosystems are rich in biodiversity and provide economic opportunities to the coastal communities. With a 10% discount rate, the accumulated total net benefits for the BMT resources over a 10-year period is US$11.54 million. Tourism and the municipal fisheries are the most important direct use values of the coastal and marine resources of the BMT accounting for 44% and 39% of the total net benefits. Annual revenues attributed to ecosystems were as follows: coral reefs, US$1.26 million; beach/intertidal area, US$1.12 million; marine waters, US$646,501; mangrove, US$239,561; and seagrass, US$105,990. The large market values indicate the dependence of the local community on the BMT coastal and marine resources. In the same way, non-market values show the important life-support functions of coastal and marine ecosystems. The net benefits reflect the magnitude of potential losses due to improper management of coastal and marine resources in the BMT. This valuation highlights the importance of the coastal services to the BMT economy and draws attention to the benefits the local stakeholders derive from BMT coastal resources. Policy measures can now take into account these values to justify a sufficient investment in coastal management efforts to sustain the flow of coastal services in the interest of current and future generations.     

Public transit subsidies, output effect and total factor productivity

This paper extends previous works on total factor productivity decomposition when firms receive both operating and capital subsidies. It shows that previous works considered either the lump-sum or substitution effects of these subsidies but not together. Using constrained cost minimization as the framework it offers formal proofs to show that cost increases are inevitable if the total effects of the subsidies are considered, and that total factor productivity growth results from increasing amounts of subsidies under economies of scale and in the absence of technical change. Applications of the decomposition equations derived to a sample of transit systems finds near constant returns to scale and negative contributions of these subsidies to total factor productivity growth. Technical change reverses this decline and results in total factor productivity growth. Further, it finds that the lump-sum effects of the subsidies reduce total factor productivity more than does the substitution effect.     

Model-based analysis of the mechanical subsystem of an air brake system

Most commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks use an air brake system, often equipped with an S-cam drum brake, to reduce their speed and/or to stop. With a drum brake system, the clearance between the brake shoe/pad and the brake drum may increase because of various reasons such as wearing of the brake shoe and/or brake drum and drum expansion caused by high heat generation during the braking process. Hence, to ensure proper functioning of the brake system, it is essential that the clearance between the brake shoe and the brake drum is monitored. In this paper, we present a mathematical model for the mechanical subsystem of the air brake system that can be used to monitor this clearance. This mathematical model correlates the push rod stroke transients and the brake chamber pressure transients. A kinematic analysis and a dynamic analysis of the mechanical subsystem of the air brake system were performed, and the results are corroborated with experimental data.     

Cycle-simulation turbulence modelling of IC engines

Numerical simulations of IC engines are of high interest for automotive engineers worldwide. The simulation models should be as fast as possible, low-computational effort and predictive tool. The correct prediction of turbulence level inside the combustion chamber of spark ignition engines is the most important factor influencing to the engine working cycle. This paper presents a development of the k-ε turbulence model applied to the commercial cycle-simulation software with the high emphasis on the intake part. The validation was performed on two engine geometries with the variation of engine speed and load comparing the cycle-simulation results of the turbulent kinetic energy and in-cylinder temperature with 3-D CFD results. In order to apply the cycle-simulation turbulence model for the simulation of entire engine map, the parameterization model of turbulence constants was proposed. The parameterized turbulence model was optimized using NLPQL optimization algorithm where the single set of turbulence model parameters for each engine was found. A good agreement of the turbulent kinetic energy during the expansion was achieved when the turbulence affects the flame front propagation and combustion rate as well.