Information needs of the continuing urban transportation planning process

Urban transportation is identified as a functional element in the broader context of urban facilities and services. From this point of view, the relative merits of separate information systems for transportation planning and general urban planning, as contrasted to unified systems for all urban management functions, are discussed. The overriding need to make the most effective use of urban resources argues strongly for the unification of urban information systems to the greatest possible extent consistent with the special data requirements of various functional programs. The need to identify and correlate data items for very small areal units and to keep current records of the constantly shifting patterns of social and economic activities in urban areas present difficult, but not insurmountable technical problems. However, the most serious barrier to the development and implementation of comprehensive urban information systems is concluded to be institutional, rather than technical, in nature.     

An application of variance reduction techniques in freeway simulation

Computer simulation models are used in a variety of applications in transportation engineering and have become a prime aid in decision making. The applications range from evaluating traffic control strategies for single intersections to such complex decision processes as evaluating the impact of removing toll facilities at the George Washington Bridge in New York City. While it is widely accepted that simulation offers an unmatchable capability of evaluating alternate control policies, the high variance of the output variable presents a critical problem in such comparative analyses. The simulation models with high output variance must be run longer or replicated many times to achieve a desired precision level, and that corresponds to increased cost of computer resources. This paper describes and illustrates the application of variance reduction concepts that can improve the reliability and efficiency of the simulation experimental process by taking advantage of the simulation model structure. The two variance reduction concepts (common random numbers and antithetic variates) reduce the variance of the output variable by replacing the original sampling procedure with a new procedure that yields the same expected value but with a smaller variance. The application of the variance reduction concept was illustrated using results from experiments with a freeway simulation model. The results indicate that both common random numbers and antithetic variates sampling procedures appreciably reduce the variance of the simulation output measure.     

Roll Dynamics of Commercial Vehicles

An analytical model is developed here for studying the roll dynamics of commercial vehicles. Large displacements and rotations are accounted for in this nonlinear model so that it can be used for the study of roll dynamics well beyond the limits of wheel lift-off. The model is used to illustrate some of the dynamic phenomena in vehicle rollover, especially the interactive coupling between the roll and the vertical modes of motion. The influence of suspension backlash on rollover resistance is demonstrated, and the phenomenon of roll motion resonance is illustrated to suggest new means for evaluating vehicle rollover sensitivity.     

The dynamic relationships between paper petroleum refining and physical trade of crude oil into the United States

This article examines the relationship between refinery margins traded on paper using petroleum futures (the paper refinery) and the physical trade of crude oil into the US. Computations of a 3:2:1 crack spread were constructed using daily observations of second- and third-nearby unleaded gasoline and heating oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NY MEX) and spot Brent crude oil prices. The crack spread represents the margin between the cost of crude oil feed stock today and the value of the products produced by a refinery in the future. Unit root tests on each of the time series found crack spreads to be stationary while crude oil imports were found to be non-stationary. A s the two series were found to be integrated of different order, cointegration analysis of the two series was not deemed appropriate. Instead, linear relationships between crack spreads and imports were examined using causality tests. It was found that the 2-month 3:2:1 crack spread Granger-causes crude oil imports and that this causality is unidirectional. The significance of these findings lies in the fact that other industries like tanker shipping derive their demand from the demand for, and trade in, petroleum. Crack spreads, therefore, can provide a leading indicator for short term developments in tanker demand. For a chartering manager who has ships on the spot market, crack spreads can help him/her anticipate demand developments and influence vessel deployment and chartering decisions.     

Comment Some reflections on port competition in the United States and western Europe

'Port competition' is a rather puzzling expression. This paper approaches it literally, searching for precise meanings. In seaports that contain complex and changeable mixtures of public and private enterprise, who competes and why? The answers to these questions are not conclusive but suggestive indications are found in the US, UK and northwestern Europe. Finally, we discuss what seem to be the key influential factors which may impact on the competitiveness of a port.     

A bi‐level programming approach — Optimal transit fare under line capacity constraints

The fare of a transit line is one of the important decision variables for transit network design. It has been advocated as an efficient means of coordinating the transit passenger flows and of alleviating congestion in the transit network. This paper shows how transit fare can be optimized so as to balance the passenger flow on the transit network and to reduce the overload delays of passengers at transit stops. A bi‐level programming method is developed to optimize the transit fare under line capacity constraints. The upper‐level problem seeks to minimize the total network travel time, while the lower‐level problem is a stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment model with line capacity constraints. A heuristic solution algorithm based on sensitivity analysis is proposed. Numerical example is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model and solution algorithm.     

Driver fatigue: a vision-based approach to automatic diagnosis

In this paper, we describe a system that locates and tracks the eyes of a driver. The purpose of such a system is to perform detection of driver fatigue. By mounting a small camera inside the car, we can monitor the face of the driver and look for eye movements which indicate that the driver is no longer in condition to drive. In such a case, a warning signal should be issued. This paper describes how to find and track the eyes. We also describe a method that can determine if the eyes are open or closed. The primary criterion for this system is that it must be highly non-intrusive. The system must also operate regardless of the texture and the color of the face. It must also be able to handle changing conditions such as changes in light, shadows, reflections, etc. Initial experimental results are very promising even when the driver moves his/her head in a way such that the camera does not have a frontal view of the driver’s face.