Late Holocene history of the rainfall in the NW Iberian peninsula—Evidence from a marine record

This study reconstructs climatic variability over the last 4700 yr in the NW Iberian Peninsula on the basis of lithological, sedimentological, biogeochemical, micropaleontological (diatoms and biosiliceous compounds) and AMS ¹⁴C analyses conducted in a gravity core retrieved from the Galician continental shelf. The core was recovered at the Galicia Mud Patch, a muddy sedimentary body highly influenced by the terrestrial supply of the Miño and Douro rivers, and thus controlled by the rainfall variations over the catchment area. River plume transports the lithogenic and continental-derived compounds to the shelf area allowing us to recognize several periods of terrestrial/marine influence. These periods are well correlated with the lithological units identified. Coarser sediments, high values of Ca/Al, low values of Fe, Al and lithogenic Si (LSi) are representative of the marine-influenced periods. These stages are related to dry conditions and winds coming from the NE under a NAO positive-like phase.Terrestrial-influenced stages are characterized by muddy sediments, with high content of Fe, Al and LSi, freshwater and benthic diatoms, continental-derived organisms (crysophycean cysts and phytoliths) and high amount of land-derived organic matter as reported by the C/N ratios. The influence of NAO positive- and NAO negative-like periods and solar activity are the two mechanisms quoted to explain the climatic variability during the last 4700 years.Proxies for the lithogenic input and terrigenous content (non-organic material) show an increase at around 2000–1800 cal. yr BP, linked to the warmer conditions and high precipitation patterns during the Roman Warm Period, and soil erosion due to forest degradation and other anthropic activities. A strong river flow event is recorded in shelf sediments during 800–500 cal. yr BP. A pervasive NAO negative-like period, and the high irradiance registered during the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) controlled the precipitation and induced a high run-off and riverine influx during this event.     

A framework for analyzing rank-ordered data with application to automobile demand

In this paper, we develop a general random utility framework for analyzing data on individuals’ rank-orderings. Specifically, we show that in the case with three alternatives one can express the probability of a particular rank-ordering as a simple function of first choice probabilities. This framework is applied to specify and estimate models of household demand for conventional gasoline cars and alternative fuel vehicles in Shanghai based on rank-ordered data obtained from a stated preference survey. Subsequently, the framework is extended to allow for random effects in the utility specification to allow for intrapersonal correlation in tastes across stated preference questions. The preferred model is then used to calculate demand probabilities and elasticities and the distribution of willingness-to-pay for alternative fuel vehicles.     

Using geometric primitives to calibrate traffic scenes

In this paper, we address the problem of recovering the intrinsic and extrinsic parameters of a camera or a group of cameras in a setting overlooking a traffic scene. Unlike many other settings, conventional camera calibration techniques are not applicable in this case. We present a method that uses certain geometric primitives commonly found in traffic scenes, such as straight and curved lanes, lane markings, and poles in order to recover calibration parameters. We show experimentally that these primitives provide the needed redundancy and are capable of achieving accurate results suitable for most traffic monitoring applications.     

The determinants of maritime policy

The paper is to explore the relation between national economic development and the formulation of maritime policy. It collects and examines data from 30 maritime nations, and shows that maritime policy is determined by economic circumstance rather than the result of rational decision of policy makers. A general solution is produced for an optimum maritime policy under a given economic condition. The general solution can serve as a benchmark for future maritime policy making and research in general.     

Maritime policy making for flag states: Forecasting safety/detention performance with the use of time series analysis

In this paper time series univariate forecast methods and analysis of time series is used in an innovative way, with the intention of assisting the flag state administrators to map and predefine their shipping quality policy. In general, given the number of ships detained by Port State Control (PSC) and corresponding inspections of the flag fleet for the same period of time, one is able to forecast the Paris Memorandum of Understanding (Paris MoU) excess factor of any flag state for a selected time window. Thus, depending on the goals of each flag state administration, one can judge their feasibility (e.g. remain in the Paris MOU White List or achieve an excess factor of —1 etc) and determine whether to enhance the safety measures or not. The method is first developed and discussed on an abstract basis to set the theoretical background, a combination of time series analysis and practical engineering philosophy. Then the study focuses upon the Cyprus Flag figures in Paris MOU ports, only to demonstrate its effectiveness but can in any case be applied upon any given flag. The application of the method suggested, combined with expert judgment, could result in a significant improvement of the flag quality.     

Critical success conditions of collaborative methods: a comparative evaluation of transport planning projects

This paper explores critical success conditions of collaborative planning projects in the area of urban transport, evaluating the impact of new collaborative methods, instruments and processes on project performance. Hypothesis building is based on a comparative, empirical research design, rather than on deductive theory construction. Potential critical success conditions are derived from literature. Based on five urban transport planning projects in Gothenburg (Sweden), London (United Kingdom), Milwaukee (United States), Tokyo (Japan) and Mexico City (Mexico), a rough set analysis of the five cases reveals validated success conditions, which can be used for formulating hypotheses for further research or for policy and process improvement. The results suggest that a dedicated management of the multi-actor network, a high diversity of actors, as well as an extensive use of knowledge integration methods in combination with a high network density are critical success conditions of these planning processes. Surprisingly, the extensive use of unilateral methods also showed to be an important success condition. The traditional role of the planner will have to be complemented with the expertise of network and methodology management. The authors conclude that rough set analysis can be a valuable addition to narrative, single-case analysis of collaborative urban transport planning processes.     

Incorporated probability that a fleet meets a given permissible value for the hull girder section modulus loss

The paper presents a study on the incorporated probability that a tanker fleet meets a given permissible value of hull girder strength loss. The analysis was based on a database of hull girder section modulus (HGSM) for as-gauged girth belts of tankers. It was found that its mean value is below 5% over the entire life span of the analyzed tanker fleet. The Weibull probabilistic distribution was found to best represent the time-varying HGSM loss. A method was developed for calculating the incorporated safety of a fleet. As an example, the IMO requirement for a maximum HGSM reduction of 10% relative to its required value was analyzed, accounting for time-variant HGSM loss and including a probabilistic model for coating longevity. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and not necessary those of ABS.     

Impact of ITS measures on public transport: A Case study

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) have a wide range of applications. They range from the more traditional signal coordination system to concepts such as smart cars and smart roads. This paper describes transit‐based ITS measures in Singapore. The island‐state has plans to double the current 90 km rail network over the next ten years and has also implemented or committed to implement many ITS initiatives that impact upon the public transport systems. The aim of these investments is to achieve a high transit modal share using a comprehensive transit network. ITS measures that can promote this aim include: automatic vehicle location systems for buses and taxis, integrated transit fare systems using contactless smart cards, rail information systems, multi‐modal travel guides on Internet and electronic road pricing. The potential impacts of these measures are delay reduction, more comfort, productivity gain and better network accessibility. ITS measures do not necessarily add physical capacity to a public transport system but are excellent supporting measures to encourage the modal shift to transit, particularly if a quality transit system is already in place.     

Variability of river plumes off Northwest Iberia in response to wind events

The Western Iberian Buoyant Plume (WIBP) is a low-salinity lens formed by river discharge and continental run-off extending along the shelf off Northwest Iberia. The variability of this structure is evaluated with a numerical model forced by real meteorological data and climatologic river discharge during late 2002, when conditions were those of a typical autumn. The direction and intensity of the wind-induced Ekman transport, but also the previous conditions and the duration of the event are found to determine plume behavior. We have identified three characteristic situations: a) confinement of the plume to the coast during downwelling — southerly-winds, b) expansion of the plume during the declining phase of the downwelling event by relaxation of the wind, and c) expansion of the plume by upwelling — northerly-winds. The short time scale of the response of the plume (1–3 h) adds timing between wind events and the phase of the tide as an additional source of variability. In all cases the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC), a saltier and warmer poleward current flowing over the slope, responds as well to wind changes. Furthermore, our simulations illustrate how topography and differences in the river discharge induce local differences in dynamics. Comparisons to available observations show a reasonable model skill. Differences between wind measurements and wind forcing applied to the model appear to be a major source of uncertainty in model results.     

Development of real-world driving cycle: Case study of Pune,India

The critical component of all emission models is a driving cycle representing the traffic behaviour. Although Indian driving cycles were developed to test the compliance of Indian vehicles to the relevant emission standards, they neglects higher speed and acceleration and assume all vehicle activities to be similar irrespective of heterogeneity in the traffic mix. Therefore, this study is an attempt to develop an urban driving cycle for estimating vehicular emissions and fuel consumption. The proposed methodology develops the driving cycle using micro-trips extracted from real-world data. The uniqueness of this methodology is that the driving cycle is constructed considering five important parameters of the time–space profile namely, the percentage acceleration, deceleration, idle, cruise, and the average speed. Therefore, this approach is expected to be a better representation of heterogeneous traffic behaviour. The driving cycle for the city of Pune in India is constructed using the proposed methodology and is compared with existing driving cycles.