The dynamic relationships between paper petroleum refining and physical trade of crude oil into the United States

This article examines the relationship between refinery margins traded on paper using petroleum futures (the paper refinery) and the physical trade of crude oil into the US. Computations of a 3:2:1 crack spread were constructed using daily observations of second- and third-nearby unleaded gasoline and heating oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NY MEX) and spot Brent crude oil prices. The crack spread represents the margin between the cost of crude oil feed stock today and the value of the products produced by a refinery in the future. Unit root tests on each of the time series found crack spreads to be stationary while crude oil imports were found to be non-stationary. A s the two series were found to be integrated of different order, cointegration analysis of the two series was not deemed appropriate. Instead, linear relationships between crack spreads and imports were examined using causality tests. It was found that the 2-month 3:2:1 crack spread Granger-causes crude oil imports and that this causality is unidirectional. The significance of these findings lies in the fact that other industries like tanker shipping derive their demand from the demand for, and trade in, petroleum. Crack spreads, therefore, can provide a leading indicator for short term developments in tanker demand. For a chartering manager who has ships on the spot market, crack spreads can help him/her anticipate demand developments and influence vessel deployment and chartering decisions.     

The influence of the Agulhas Current on the adjacent coastal ocean: possible impacts of climate change

The dynamics of the coastal ocean along the southeastern coast of Africa is dominated by a strong and intense western boundary current, the Agulhas Current. With a near-uniform, narrow continental shelf and a steep shelf slope that stabilizes this current, the trajectory of the Agulhas exhibits great stability. The only substantial perturbation occurs with the irregular passage of a Natal Pulse, a soliton meander. The initiation of this meander at the Natal Bight is due to a barotropic instability when the intensity of the landward border of the current exceeds a certain threshold value. This may come about with natural fluctuations in the current or with the adsorption of deep-sea eddies onto the current. Under a climate change scenario of altered wind stress curl over the South Indian Ocean it is conceivable that the threshold for the triggering of a Natal Pulse will occur more frequently. This will lead to a situation where the current axis on average lies further offshore. The possible consequences of such a situation on the rainfall of the coast, on the ecology of estuaries and the coastal ocean, and on the socio-economics of the region is discussed.     

不同加载幅值下考虑层间界面条件和侧向剪力作用的柔性铺面响应

该文进行了一个三维有限元参数量化的粘弹性路面响应研究,由于不同的轮胎配置:双轮和宽基轮胎在3种温度(5、25和40℃)和两种速度(8、72 km/h);还有影响路面响应的3种因素:移动车轮荷载幅值(连续,梯形),层间界面条件(简单的摩擦和粘弹性模型)和横向力共同对路面响应的影响进行了研究.研究发现连续加载幅值,不但可以模拟路面对运动轮荷载的响应,并且是一种比目前使用的梯形荷载幅值更准确的研究模型.粘弹性模型极大地提高了双轮胎对预测路面的响应,而简单的摩擦模型更接近宽基轮胎的实地测量.侧向剪力是积极改善预测轮底的表面磨损和底部热拌沥青(沥青)基层的较小程度上的应变.研究表明:使用连续加载幅值和非均匀压力分布模拟移动轮,侧向剪切力和适当的界面摩擦可显著改善有限元模型对车辆加载路面响应的预测能力.     

Perspectives on railway track geometry condition monitoring from in-service railway vehicles

This paper presents a view of the current state of monitoring track geometry condition from in-service vehicles. It considers technology used to provide condition monitoring; some issues of processing and the determination of location; how things have evolved over the past decade; and what is being, or could/should be done in future research. Monitoring railway track geometry from an in-service vehicle is an attractive proposition that has become a reality in the past decade. However, this is only the beginning. Seeing the same track over and over again provides an opportunity for observing track geometry degradation that can potentially be used to inform maintenance decisions. Furthermore, it is possible to extend the use of track condition information to identify if maintenance is effective, and to monitor the degradation of individual faults such as dipped joints. There are full unattended track geometry measurement systems running on in-service vehicles in the UK and elsewhere around the world, feeding their geometry measurements into large databases. These data can be retrieved, but little is currently done with the data other than the generation of reports of track geometry that exceeds predefined thresholds. There are examples of simpler systems that measure some track geometry parameters more or less directly and accurately, but forego parameters such as gauge. Additionally, there are experimental systems that use mathematics and models to infer track geometry using data from sensors placed on an in-service vehicle. Finally, there are systems that do not claim to measure track geometry, but monitor some other quantity such as ride quality or bogie acceleration to infer poor track geometry without explicitly measuring it.     

电气化动力总成——它会带来什么?

<正>德尔福公司与上海汽车集团股份有限公司(上海汽车)达成协议,将为上海汽车开发的中度混合动力车提供混合动力技术。这一协议的签署具有开创性的重要意义,它将目前中国市场最大的整车制造商上海汽车与德尔福公司的     

Scantling multi-objective optimisation of a LNG carrier

Numerous real-world problems related to ship design can be solved by various alternatives. However, the scantling design has conflicting objectives such as minimum production cost, minimum weight and maximum moment of inertia (stiffness). Therefore a multi-purpose solution had to be settled in order to meet all these requirements at once. Ship design is a complex endeavour requiring successful coordination of many different disciplines, both technical and non-technical. Basic design is the least defined stage of the ship design process and seeks to define the optimal amidships section structure. For that purpose, recent improvements have been made to a numerical tool in order to optimise the scantling of ship sections by considering production cost, weight and moment of inertia in the optimisation objective function. A multi-criteria optimisation of a LNG carrier is conducted in this paper to illustrate the analysis process. Pareto frontiers are obtained and results have been validated by the Bureau Veritas rules. The methodology presented in this paper has demonstrated its effectiveness in optimising scantling of ships at a very early design stage thanks to a management of critical problems usually studied at a later stage of the design.     

国外机车制造业的现状与发展趋势概述

本文以国际知名企业为代表,简要介绍了国外铁道机车制造业的现状与发展趋势。     

Application of a 3-D variational inverse model to the analysis of ecohydrodynamic data in the Northern Bering and Southern Chukchi Seas

In the scope of the Inner SHelf Transfer And Recycling Program, extensive oceanographic surveys were conducted in the Northern Bering and Southern Chukchi Seas. A vast amount of hydrographic, chemical and biological data were collected in order to increase the information available on the system and to test if biological observations are indeed compatible with the dominant hydrographic regimes. An original model, based on the variational inverse method, was developed with the aim of reconstructing realistic three-dimensional fields of the variables of interest and giving an interpretation of the observations consistent with the physics of the general circulation. The basic formulation of the model is quite general and provides a very helpful tool in the context of interdisciplinary studies. In a first stage, the vertical and horizontal structures of physical variables are reproduced and discussed. Secondly, a sketch is proposed to explain the driving mechanisms of the primary productivity in the Northern Bering Sea. In particular, one shows that the hydrodynamic regimes strongly condition the behaviour of the ecosystem and are mainly responsible for the very fertile environment that characterizes the Southern Chukchi Sea.