The dynamic relationships between paper petroleum refining and physical trade of crude oil into the United States

This article examines the relationship between refinery margins traded on paper using petroleum futures (the paper refinery) and the physical trade of crude oil into the US. Computations of a 3:2:1 crack spread were constructed using daily observations of second- and third-nearby unleaded gasoline and heating oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NY MEX) and spot Brent crude oil prices. The crack spread represents the margin between the cost of crude oil feed stock today and the value of the products produced by a refinery in the future. Unit root tests on each of the time series found crack spreads to be stationary while crude oil imports were found to be non-stationary. A s the two series were found to be integrated of different order, cointegration analysis of the two series was not deemed appropriate. Instead, linear relationships between crack spreads and imports were examined using causality tests. It was found that the 2-month 3:2:1 crack spread Granger-causes crude oil imports and that this causality is unidirectional. The significance of these findings lies in the fact that other industries like tanker shipping derive their demand from the demand for, and trade in, petroleum. Crack spreads, therefore, can provide a leading indicator for short term developments in tanker demand. For a chartering manager who has ships on the spot market, crack spreads can help him/her anticipate demand developments and influence vessel deployment and chartering decisions.     

Application of a 3-D variational inverse model to the analysis of ecohydrodynamic data in the Northern Bering and Southern Chukchi Seas

In the scope of the Inner SHelf Transfer And Recycling Program, extensive oceanographic surveys were conducted in the Northern Bering and Southern Chukchi Seas. A vast amount of hydrographic, chemical and biological data were collected in order to increase the information available on the system and to test if biological observations are indeed compatible with the dominant hydrographic regimes. An original model, based on the variational inverse method, was developed with the aim of reconstructing realistic three-dimensional fields of the variables of interest and giving an interpretation of the observations consistent with the physics of the general circulation. The basic formulation of the model is quite general and provides a very helpful tool in the context of interdisciplinary studies. In a first stage, the vertical and horizontal structures of physical variables are reproduced and discussed. Secondly, a sketch is proposed to explain the driving mechanisms of the primary productivity in the Northern Bering Sea. In particular, one shows that the hydrodynamic regimes strongly condition the behaviour of the ecosystem and are mainly responsible for the very fertile environment that characterizes the Southern Chukchi Sea.     

Use and perceptions of a real time passenger information system

The use of high-technology systems in the transport sector has increased steadily over recent years. This paper outlines the development of vehicle monitoring and control systems and their use in the public transport arena. The paper shows how one such system, that operated by Datatrak Ltd., has been adapted to provide a real time passenger information system for the RiverBus Partnership in London.

1 The RiverBus service described in this article ceased operation in August 1993. The collapse of the RiverBus Partnership followed the financial difficulties surrounding Olympia and York, developers of Canary Wharf in London Docklands.

Passenger use and perception of the system is evaluated, based on surveys of RiverBus users. This provides an evaluation of the system, and highlights the importance of introducing such systems based on user information needs and as part of the total marketing package.     

The influence of the Agulhas Current on the adjacent coastal ocean: possible impacts of climate change

The dynamics of the coastal ocean along the southeastern coast of Africa is dominated by a strong and intense western boundary current, the Agulhas Current. With a near-uniform, narrow continental shelf and a steep shelf slope that stabilizes this current, the trajectory of the Agulhas exhibits great stability. The only substantial perturbation occurs with the irregular passage of a Natal Pulse, a soliton meander. The initiation of this meander at the Natal Bight is due to a barotropic instability when the intensity of the landward border of the current exceeds a certain threshold value. This may come about with natural fluctuations in the current or with the adsorption of deep-sea eddies onto the current. Under a climate change scenario of altered wind stress curl over the South Indian Ocean it is conceivable that the threshold for the triggering of a Natal Pulse will occur more frequently. This will lead to a situation where the current axis on average lies further offshore. The possible consequences of such a situation on the rainfall of the coast, on the ecology of estuaries and the coastal ocean, and on the socio-economics of the region is discussed.     

A note on using Davidson's function in equilibrium assignment

This paper describes the use of the Davidson congestion function in modelling network flows using equilibrium assignment. A modification to the function is given, which defines the function over all flows values, and consequently removes computational difficulties noted in earlier studies. The modification requires the inclusion of an additional model parameter, and the selection of a suitable value for this parameter is studied for two sets of data. The modified Davidson function is also compared to two alternative functions; a step-wise linear function and a quartic polynomial function, which have both been proposed as congestion functions. Comparisons are made between observed link volumes and the assigned volumes from these models. It is concluded that the modified Davidson function is useful for inclusion in an equilibrium assignment model, given its ability to reflect differences in network link type (e.g. capacity and speed) and environment through its parameters, the conceptual advantage of the function through its derivation from queueing theory, and the previous discovery of reliable methods for estimating its parameters. A value of about 0.8–0.9 is suggested for the parameter (μ, 0 < μ < 1) introduced in the modification.     

Integrated modeling of urban hierarchy and transportation network planning

A major problem addressed during the preparation of spatial development plans relates to the accessibility to facilities where services of general interest such as education, health care, public safety, and justice are offered to the population. In this context, planners typically aim at redefining the level of hierarchy to assign to the urban centers of the region under study (with a class of facilities associated with each level of hierarchy) and redesigning the region’s transportation network. Traditionally, these two subjects – urban hierarchy and transportation network planning – have been addressed separately in the scientific literature. This paper presents an optimization model that simultaneously determines which urban centers and which network links should be promoted to a new level of hierarchy so as to maximize accessibility to all classes of facilities. The possible usefulness of the model for solving real-world problems of integrated urban hierarchy and transportation network planning is illustrated through an application to the Centro Region of Portugal.     

Nouveaux entrants, structure du réseau ferré et qualité des infrastructures ferroviaires en France : des stratégies d’itinéraires contrariées

The structure of the French rail network is highly centralized. It complies with the strategy of use of the incumbent operator, SNCF: the long-term trend has been rather towards the concentration of traffic on a limited number of well-equipped routes. The experience of freight market liberalization shows that seven newcomers have entered the market. They haul approximately 16% of the total volume in 2010. But they have neither the same vision of the network, nor the same use of it. They run point-to-point long-distance trains, so they try to travel via lines that are as direct as possible, thereby saving several kilometres and avoiding problematic bottlenecks. Their strategies are counteracted by the current state of the infrastructures when they try to avoid the main radial lines: limited capacity, speed and axle load restrictions, etc. Upgrading works are now in progress, under the direction of RFF, the network manager. They add perturbations to the existing restriction of use, without any satisfying alternative train path. This paper tries to emphasize the strategic divergences between operators confronted with a time-consuming (or insufficiently anticipated) network.     

Fault detection method for electric parking brake (EPB) systems with sensorless estimation using current ripples

A fault detection method with parity equations is proposed in this paper. Due to its low cost implementation, the velocity of the motor is not measurable in electric parking brake (EPB) systems. Therefore, residuals are not reliable when estimating the motor velocity with a low-resolution encoder. In this paper, we propose a fault detection method with sensorless estimation using current ripples that estimates the position and velocity of the motor by detecting periodical oscillations of the armature current caused by rotor slots. In addition, this method can estimate the position and velocity of the motor with less computational effort than a state observer. Moreover, the method is less sensitive to motor parameters than model-based estimation methods. The effectiveness of this method is validated with experimental data, and the simulation results show that various faults have their own residual patterns. Therefore, we can detect the presence of faults by monitoring the residual signals.     

不同加载幅值下考虑层间界面条件和侧向剪力作用的柔性铺面响应

该文进行了一个三维有限元参数量化的粘弹性路面响应研究,由于不同的轮胎配置:双轮和宽基轮胎在3种温度(5、25和40℃)和两种速度(8、72 km/h);还有影响路面响应的3种因素:移动车轮荷载幅值(连续,梯形),层间界面条件(简单的摩擦和粘弹性模型)和横向力共同对路面响应的影响进行了研究.研究发现连续加载幅值,不但可以模拟路面对运动轮荷载的响应,并且是一种比目前使用的梯形荷载幅值更准确的研究模型.粘弹性模型极大地提高了双轮胎对预测路面的响应,而简单的摩擦模型更接近宽基轮胎的实地测量.侧向剪力是积极改善预测轮底的表面磨损和底部热拌沥青(沥青)基层的较小程度上的应变.研究表明:使用连续加载幅值和非均匀压力分布模拟移动轮,侧向剪切力和适当的界面摩擦可显著改善有限元模型对车辆加载路面响应的预测能力.