Modelling the hydrodynamics and ecosystem of the North-West European continental shelf for operational oceanography

This paper outlines an approach to complex spatio-temporal marine ecosystem modelling as applied to the North Western European Continental Shelf. The model presented here combines an eddy-permitting (approximately 6 km horizontal resolution) baroclinic model, the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS), with the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). This has been run within an operational framework using operationally available high resolution atmospheric and lateral boundary forcing, allowing hindcast and near-real time nowcast simulations to be performed. The modelled surface temperature and chlorophyll distributions are presented, and interannual variations discussed. Validation of both the physical and ecosystem submodels show the system to be effective, whilst highlighting areas where improvements in the system can be made. Distinct regional differences in predictive skill are shown. The system presented is ready for operational implementation to provide products and services for use both scientifically and in coastal zone and shelf seas management activities. A programme of work to update the system is already in place.     

Nutrient biogeochemical cycles in the Gulf of Riga: scaling up field studies with a mathematical model

A box model has been implemented to understand the large-scale biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon in the Gulf of Riga. The large data sets collected within the international Gulf of Riga Project in 1993/1995 were used to validate the model. The comparison to data was useful in scaling up to the gulf-wide level and scrutinizing the conclusions based on short-term field surveys and experimental studies. The simulations indicate that the limiting role was passing from silicon to phosphorus to nitrogen over the seasons of organic production. However, on an annual scale, nutrient limitation was close to the “Redfield equilibrium”. Mass balance considerations, based on modeled coupled fluxes, disagree with the conclusions on low sediment denitrification and high phosphorus retention in the pelagic system, which were derived from isolated measurements.Nutrient budgets constructed with the model revealed the high buffer capacity of the Gulf of Riga. The nutrient residence times span a range from 6 years for N to 70 years for Si. The buffering arises from intensive internal recycling in the water body and by the bottom sediments. The budgets indicate that the Gulf retains about two-thirds of external nitrogen and silicon inputs, while phosphorus retention is only 10%.A slow response to external perturbations is demonstrated with numerical experiments run for 15 years under 50% reductions of terrestrial nutrient inputs. These experiments imply that the most effective is the N+P reduction scenario, which resulted in a 20% decrease of primary production after 12 years. A reduction of P resulted in only a 6% decrease of primary production; however, it yielded an 80% drop in the amount of nitrogen fixation.     

Predicting the chloride penetration of fly ash concrete in seawater

In this study, a model for predicting chloride penetration in fly ash concrete under long-term exposure in a marine environment is developed. The empirical model was based on 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year investigation of concretes in a marine site. Regression analysis of the data was carried out by applying Fick's second law of diffusion to generate an empirical formula for predicting chloride concentration in concrete. The model uses the water to binder (W/B) ratio, fly ash content, distance from the concrete surface, and exposure time. Model validation revealed that the predicted chloride concentration levels were within a ±25% error margin (R² = 0.91 ? 0.99) in the samples used to develop the model. The model was also verified using data from previous laboratory and field studies. Most predicted chloride concentration levels were within a ±30% margin of error from field samples. The model also predicted the strong effect of fly ash and W/B ratio on reducing chloride diffusion in concrete. Results clearly indicated that a high volume fly ash replacement (up to 50% by weight of binder) and a low W/B ratio will yield good chloride resistance in concrete under long-term exposure in a marine environment.     

Optimization of shipyard space allocation and scheduling using a heuristic algorithm

In this article we describe the development of a tool that allows planners to efficiently and effectively plan space within valuable areas of a shipyard. Traditionally, space is considered as resource; however, it is difficult to accurately account for and plan its consumption with the currently available planning software’s. The spatial scheduling tool described in this article can be used by planners to manually or automatically reserve space within the shipyard for construction of large blocks over the entire erection period of the ship. The software is coupled with a heuristic optimization solver inspired by an algorithm used for "3D bin-packing problems." The result is the ability to efficiently generate and compare multiple space allocation alternatives in a reduced time with the ultimate goal of maintaining the critical ship erection schedule. A better solution than manual or semi-automatic allocation of blocks can be obtained through the optimization module.     

Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.     

The vertical disintegration of ship management: choice criteria for third party selection and evaluation

An assessment of the rationale for the vertical disintegration of ship management suggests that there might be compelling economic benefits for the separation of ownership from management. In this context, as a means for developing effective marketing strategies, it is important for ship managers to know the criteria used by current and prospective clients for ship manager selection and evaluation. The aim of this paper is to empirically identify the dimensions for ship manager selection and performance evaluation and their relative importance and to discuss the implications for marketing emanating from such an assessment. The methodology adopted includes the collection of secondary and primary data, both from ship managers and their clients, using interviews and a mail survey. The results indicate the prevailing importance of certain dimensions in selection (e.g. technical ability, reputation, competency) and evaluation (responsiveness, trustworthiness, technical ability), whereas it also found that price alone is not perceived to be as important in ship manager selection. It is concluded that placing emphasis on such dimensions in the formulation of a marketing strategy will contribute towards the attraction and retention of clients, whereas cost-cutting measures to allow price reduction, as well as advertising, will be ineffective over the long term.     

Sociocultural Effects of a Market-Based Fishery Management Program in the Florida Keys

Spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) represents one of the most lucrative fisheries in the State of Florida, and a majority of the catch is landed in the Florida Keys. Over the past three decades, the industry grew significantly, and by the end of the 1980s, state fishery managers agreed that the fishery was overextended. In 1991, the Florida Legislature passed the Spiny Lobster Trap Certificate Program (LTC), created to stabilize the industry by reducing the total number of traps while allowing fishers to transfer trap certificates in a market-based system akin to individual transferable quotas. Data from a survey study suggest that a majority of the respondents are dissatisfied with the LTC, which they view as transitory and unsustainable. The fishers' negative views are motivated by sociocultural changes in the fishing community. Managers need to consider modifications to the LTC and other such marketbased programs to minimize sociocultural impacts and retain small-scale fisher participation in such fisheries.     

Spatial and Temporal Modeling of Beach Use: A Case Study of East Anglia,UK

As tourists are sensitive to weather conditions and changes to the environments they visit, it is likely that climate change will affect coastal recreation in the future. To understand these impacts, it is first important to quantify how visitor numbers are associated with beach characteristics and weather patterns. Using the East Anglian coastline, UK, as a case study, information on the spatial distribution of visitors recorded from aircraft flights is combined with beach characteristic data in a Geographical Information System. In addition, surveys are undertaken at two beaches to assess temporal variations in visitation. The study finds a diverse range of characteristics are associated with visitor numbers. These findings are evaluated alongside the anticipated effects of climate change and management policies. Although it is predicted that warmer weather will increase visitor numbers overall, sea-level rise may reduce numbers at wide sandy beaches, which are currently most preferred by tourists.     

Visibility mapping in New York's coastal zone: A case study of alternative methods

Abstract

Most scenery evaluation methodologies incorporate visibility extent. In New York's coastal zone, visibility mapping for planning and project studies is complicated by low topographic relief, and diverse configurations of water edge and upland surface character. A generalized visibility model has been developed, including macrolandscape, observer, and sight‐line recording. Based on a prior shorescape study of New York's coast, the Lake Ontario Port Bay site was selected to test alternative visibility methods. Within the study site, four “landscape control points”; were chosen which provided extensive views of representative land and water forms, and surface types. For each control point, four families of visibility mapping approaches were applied: primary (field observation); secondary (topographic maps and vertical air photo analysis); tertiary (physical topographic model); and quaternary (digital terrain computer model). Major study conclusions are: the methods require different resources; all methods readily produced visibility maps; all methods, except secondary, could be used to produce perspective scenes for subsequent content evaluation; all methods except primary omitted one or more elements of the general visibility model; all methods should incorporate field work due to critical viewer environment conditions; sensitivity analysis in each method produced ambiguous zones; each view map was different, particularly in the background. An integrated, multi‐approach strategy would appear desirable for most planning and project applications.     

Suitability of Decision-Theoretic Models to Public Policy Issues Concerning the Provision of Shoreline Stabilization and Hazard Management

This article examines the suitability and potential advances of decision-theoretic models from finance regarding investment decisions in shoreline stabilization projects. A set of scenarios represents the dynamics of the decision-state facing the planner and identifies factors that should be incorporated into the decision-making process. It is shown that decision models from finance can account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in shoreline stabilization projects, potentially suggest improvements and refinements to presently used cost-benefit analysis procedures, and offer new tools that can aid in decisions concerning provision of shoreline stabilization. The outcomes of these scenarios justify better planning and control of existing and future building, and that of poststorm policies. Lastly, these models allow us to explore the range of our understanding of coastal processes and interactions with shoreline stabilization projects and can identify new and useful data needed in coastal management and hazard management decisions.