Estimating a model of dynamic activity generation based on one-day observations: Method and results

In this paper we develop and explore an approach to estimate dynamic models of activity generation on one-day travel-diary data. Dynamic models predict multi-day activity patterns of individuals taking into account dynamic needs as well as day-varying preferences and time-budgets. We formulate an ordered-logit model of dynamic activity-agenda-formation decisions and show how one-day observation probabilities can be derived from the model as a function of the model’s parameters and, with that, how parameters can be estimated using standard loglikelihood estimation. A scale parameter cannot be identified because information on within-person variability is lacking in one-day data. An application of the method to data from a national travel survey illustrates the method. A test on simulated data indicates that, given a pre-set scale, the parameters can be identified and that estimates are robust for a source of heterogeneity not captured in the model. This result indicates that dynamic activity-based models of the kind considered here can be estimated from data that are less costly to collect and that support the large sample sizes typically required for travel-demand modeling. We conclude therefore that the proposed approach opens up a way to develop large-scale dynamic activity-based models of travel demand.     

Modeling co-dependent choice of workplace,residence and commuting mode using an error component mixed logit model

Transportation - This paper develops an error component mixed logit model to analyze the multi-dimensional residential, work and transportation mode choice. It expanse previous studies based on...     

Analytic hierarchy process application in selecting the mode of transport for a logistics company

As a multi‐criteria decision‐making (MCDM) method, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been used considerably to solve hierarchical or network‐based decision problems in socio‐economic fields. Following an in‐depth explanation of the transport function in logistics and an overview of the MCDM methods, the AHP model is employed in the paper for a logistics company in selecting the most suitable way of transportation between two given locations in Turkey. The criteria used in the selection of transportation modes are identified as the cost, speed, safety, accessibility, reliability, environmental friendliness, and flexibility. Several cost parameters (transportation, storage, handling, bosphorus crossover) are incorporated into the decision‐making process. The application is carried out in instructional character. The results of the study indicate that the railway transportation, which is not widely used in Turkey, is also an alternative and suitable means of transportation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

防止脱轨的新策略

介绍了防止脱轨的有效策略，并着重对脱轨原因分析方法以及技术进步对脱轨原因调查所起的积极帮助作用等进行了阐述。运用实践证明，早期发现是防止脱轨的关键，而一个具有系统性的总体方案，以及具有责任心的专业人员或专业队伍，则是成功的脱轨原因查找及其改进方案的根本所在。     

Updating of Travel Behavior Model Parameters and Estimation of Vehicle Trip Chain Based on Plate Scanning

This article proposes a maximum-likelihood method to update travel behavior model parameters and estimate vehicle trip chain based on plate scanning. The information from plate scanning consists of the vehicle passing time and sequence of scanned vehicles along a series of plate scanning locations (sensor locations installed on road network). The article adopts the hierarchical travel behavior decision model, in which the upper tier is an activity pattern generation model, and the lower tier is a destination and route choice model. The activity pattern is an individual profile of daily performed activities. To obtain reliable estimation results, the sensor location schemes for predicting trip chaining are proposed. The maximum-likelihood estimation problem based on plate scanning is formulated to update model parameters. This problem is solved by the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The model and algorithm are then tested with simulated plate scanning data in a modified Sioux Falls network. The results illustrate the efficiency of the model and its potential for an application to large and complex network cases.     

Independent control of all-wheel-drive torque distribution

The sophistication of all-wheel-drive (AWD) technology is approaching the point where the drive torque to each wheel can be independently controlled. This potentially offers vehicle handling enhancements similar to those provided by dynamic stability control, but without the inevitable reduction in vehicle acceleration. Independent control of AWD torque distribution would therefore be especially beneficial under acceleration close to the limit of stability. A vehicle model of a typical sports sedan was developed in Simulink, with fully independent control of torque distribution. Box-Behnken experimental design was employed to determine which torque distribution parameters have the greatest impact on the vehicle course and acceleration. A proportional-integral control strategy was implemented, applying yaw rate feedback to vary the front-rear torque distribution and lateral acceleration feedback to adjust the left-right distribution. The resulting system shows a significant improvement over conventional driveline configurations under aggressive cornering acceleration on a high-μ surface. The performance approaches the theoretical limit for these conditions. In the medium term, such a system is only likely to be economically viable for premium vehicles. However, a future revolution of powertrain technology towards, for example, wheel-mounted motors, could realize these handling benefits far more widely.     

英国利用测速相机治理超速的方案

英国通过“安全相机方案”把自动测速相机成功地用于违章执法来改善道路安全,其核心是“以罚养查”。全面介绍了英国安全相机方案’的实践和程序。其设计理念和过去几年实践的经验对中国的超速治理有较高的借鉴价值。     

Novel evaluation method of fuel consumption and emission for heavy-duty hybrid electric vehicles

This paper is a continuation of a previous paper titled “A novel way to calculate energy efficiency for rechargeable batteries” published on Journal of Power Sources/2012 describing a new method to calculate energy efficiency for rechargeable batteries. The present paper further describes the application of energy efficiency model on the evaluation of fuel consumption and emission for the heavy-duty hybrid electric vehicles (HD-HEVs). A more accurate calculation method of net energy change for power battery pack is proposed based on energy efficiency model of power battery pack. A more simplified and accurate correction method of fuel consumption and emission is also presented based on equivalent mileage. The fuel consumption and emission on chassis dynamometer are measured in the HD-HEVs. The experiment results show that relative errors of fuel consumption and emission between equivalent mileage correction results and linear regression correction results are less than 3%, which verifies accuracy and validates the proposed evaluation method for HD-HEVs fuel consumption and emission.     

Crashworthiness design based on a simplified deceleration pulse

This paper proposes a procedure to improve the design of an automobile crashworthiness using the deceleration pulse in a simplified form as a design variable. A complete vehicle in a full frontal crash was simulated to find its deceleration pulse by finite element method. Based on this deceleration pulse, sled tests were performed, also in a virtual environment. Comparisons between the real deceleration pulse and a simplified pulse were made based on the HIC₁₅ produced. The simplified pulse is developed by dividing the pulse in three phases, each with a constant level of deceleration. Simulations were made to minimize the HIC₁₅ changing parameters in the restraint system and in the deceleration pulse. An expression was found to relate HIC₁₅ and the first phase of the deceleration pulse. A design case using this expression is presented. The benefits of using the pulse as a design variable along with the restraint system are accounted.     

De l’intérêt de contrôler l’impact des hypothèses de composition du parc automobile sur l’estimation des émissions liées au trafic routier

Since the 1990s, transport project assessments take systematically pollutant emission estimations into account. This paper is about the methodological aspects of these calculations. It focuses more specifically on the car fleet hypothesis, which most often lays on national data, without consideration of local specificities. We use the last household travel survey from Lyon, 2006, and the SIMBAD model to compare the results of CO₂ and NO_x emissions estimated from the French national car fleet, the aggregated Lyon car fleet and the same fleet disaggregated by household location and income. We show that the error level varies, depending on the pollutant and the observation scale. The use of an aggregated local car fleet seems interesting and satisfactory for a global emission assessment. If the results are required at a more detailed spatial level, the use of this local fleet improves sharply the estimations in comparison of a national fleet; the fleet disaggregation refines the results for NO_x.