Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.     

轨道交通的产学研新模式——麻省理工学院/波多黎各地铁项目简介

波多黎各于20世纪90年代初才开始发展城市轨道交通,但因为善于利用后发优势,通过产学研的结合,充分考虑了地铁工程的多学科特性,走出一条有波多黎各特色的道路,成为美国和国际公共交通领域技术交流的典范.主要介绍了其产学研的项目,它由负责地铁项目的政府主管部门、波多黎各大学和美国麻省理工学院共同组织实施,历经地铁前期规划、修建、调试、运营和政策分析等全部过程,共13年的时间.这种方式提高了工程的质量和施工效率,推动当地轨道交通辅助产业的发展,加快了新技术的应用及研究,培养了一大批轨道交通的规划运营人才,为拉丁美洲城市轨道交通建设提供了一个新模式.波多黎各的经验对于我国当前的城市轨道交通建设同样具有借鉴意义.     

Nutrient biogeochemical cycles in the Gulf of Riga: scaling up field studies with a mathematical model

A box model has been implemented to understand the large-scale biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon in the Gulf of Riga. The large data sets collected within the international Gulf of Riga Project in 1993/1995 were used to validate the model. The comparison to data was useful in scaling up to the gulf-wide level and scrutinizing the conclusions based on short-term field surveys and experimental studies. The simulations indicate that the limiting role was passing from silicon to phosphorus to nitrogen over the seasons of organic production. However, on an annual scale, nutrient limitation was close to the “Redfield equilibrium”. Mass balance considerations, based on modeled coupled fluxes, disagree with the conclusions on low sediment denitrification and high phosphorus retention in the pelagic system, which were derived from isolated measurements.Nutrient budgets constructed with the model revealed the high buffer capacity of the Gulf of Riga. The nutrient residence times span a range from 6 years for N to 70 years for Si. The buffering arises from intensive internal recycling in the water body and by the bottom sediments. The budgets indicate that the Gulf retains about two-thirds of external nitrogen and silicon inputs, while phosphorus retention is only 10%.A slow response to external perturbations is demonstrated with numerical experiments run for 15 years under 50% reductions of terrestrial nutrient inputs. These experiments imply that the most effective is the N+P reduction scenario, which resulted in a 20% decrease of primary production after 12 years. A reduction of P resulted in only a 6% decrease of primary production; however, it yielded an 80% drop in the amount of nitrogen fixation.     

A summary of the formation and seasonal progression of the Northeast Water Polynya

A summary of the seasonal development of the Northeast Water Polynya ice cover characteristics is presented. This is based primarily on satellite remote sensing observations, with some in situ measurements, including both new and published data.     

On the background level of Tc, Sr and Cs in the North Atlantic

Mean concentrations of the anthropogenic radioactive oceanographic tracers ⁹⁹Tc, ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs have been measured as 0.005, 1.6 and 2.5 Bq m⁻³ in oceanic Northeast Atlantic surface water, east and northeast of the Azores, in 1992. This is, apparently, the first published value for fallout “background” ⁹⁹Tc in oceanic Atlantic water.Comparison with older data indicates an observed half life for ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs in the northeast Atlantic surface water of 20 yr corresponding to a mean residence time of 80–100 yr for the stable elements.The observed ⁹⁹Tc/⁹⁰Sr ratio (3 × 10⁻³) in the Azores samples is 10 times higher than the theoretical fission yield decay corrected to 1992. This is in agreement with published data on rain water samples and may be characteristic for 1960's global fallout. Furthermore, the measured ¹³⁷Cs/⁹⁰Sr ratio is not significantly different from that observed for global fallout. There do not appear to be any additional significant sources of artificial radionuclides in this region.     

RECENT RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OF POLYMER OPTICAL FIBRES

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Road Surface Correction o f Tire Test Data

Most tire data used for vehicle simulations is measured on laboratory test facilities. An investigation showed that the frictional properties of these laboratory machines can be quite different from actual road conditions. This paper describes a method to correct laboratory tire test data to be more like road data in order to achieve a higher degree of correlation between instrumented test- and simulation results.     

What makes a car-sharer?

Information from various sources, but most specifically from the YORKSHARE car-sharing schemes, is brought together in an analysis of public reaction to, and participation in, a car-sharing scheme with centralised matching of applicants. The importance of various attributes of the sites, of the individuals and of the scheme organisation are assessed and conclusions are drawn.The motivation of individual participants is analysed and is seen to vary from one person to another depending to some extent on their circumstances, but the universal importance of some features, notably cost savings, is revealed.     

Collision damage of jack-ups

North Sea collision accident records covering a period of ten years indicate that the risk of collisions involving jack-ups is not dissimilar to that for semi-submersibles or fixed jacket structures. However, jack-ups are much more flexible than jackets and have a much lower degree of redundancy. Their response to collisions and their ability to absorb impact energy is, therefore, expected to be considerably different in comparison to jackets. This paper examines available data and information regarding the capability of jack-ups to withstand collision impacts and investigates the level of local damage that can potentially be caused to jack-up legs due to accidental collisions.