Small scale retentive structures and Dinophysis

Despite its rarity, Dinophysis acuminata is in terms of economic impact, the first toxic algal species along the coasts of Western Europe. It is observed at low levels (< 20 cell l^− 1) all the year round but toxic events occur mainly in late spring and summer. D. acuminata ecophysiology is largely unknown due to the inability to culture it. Therefore, standard biomass models based on inorganic nutrition are largely inadequate. Presently, any progress in describing the conditions of population growth of this species will be a step forward to prediction of harmful events at the coast. This species has been observed at increased, albeit low cell densities in retentive eddies located in pycnocline layers. A concentration build-up of one species results from the balance between growth and loss processes, one of the latter being dispersal. The scales of interest for a D. acuminata population are of the order of 10 nautical miles on the horizontal and duration of 10 days, for a reported achievable growth rate of 0.6 day^− 1. A three dimensional (3D) hydrodynamical model of the Bay of Biscay has been elaborated to reproduce hydrological structures over the last decade. We attempt here to relate the existence of retentive structures revealed from simulations under realistic forcing conditions and the toxic coastal events recorded in the 10-year time series of the French plankton monitoring network database. The eddies in the coastal area appear to be directly related with the Dinophysis coastal events and they may be a potential effective tool to predict those.     

Estimating induced travel for evaluation of metropolitan highway expansion

This paper demonstrates how induced travel can be estimated for incorporation into the evaluation process for highway expansion projects, at a sketch planning level of analysis. The approach is useful especially in cases where four-step urban travel models are either unavailable or are unable to forecast the full induced demand effects. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical freeway expansion analysis. Our analysis suggests that the magnitude of travel induced by highway expansion increases significantly as a function of initial congestion levels prior to expansion. However, under even extreme scenarios of initial congestion and consequent forecasted induced travel, there is a positive impact with respect to congestion relief.     

The ports of the Russian Far East: a management strategy

The recent breakupof the former Soviet Union and the Russian Republic's movement towards a market economy wil require a considerable improvement and expansion of present port facilities in order to handle increasing cargo throughputs effectively. The Russian Far East is expected to increase trade dramatically through imports of foreign goods, exors of natural resources from Siberia and container traffic traversing teh Trans-Siberian landbridge. The ports of the region will be competing with each other to atract foreing investment and to increase central government assistance in order to facilitate development. This article examines;(1) the more important ports of the Far East and the problems they face as they compete to atract investment; (2) the establishment of a Regional Port Authority as a possible management alternative; (3)advantages of a Port Authority in developing the region' ports and fostering future growth. By analysing these data, a management and development strategy can be formulated for the optimum utilization of present resources and the benefi of reginal modernization and development.     

Ex-Post Evaluations of Demand Forecast Accuracy: A Literature Review

Abstract

Travel demand forecasts play a crucial role in the preparation of decision support to policy-makers in the field of transport planning. The results feed directly into impact appraisals such as cost–benefit analyses and environmental impact assessments, which are mandatory for large public works projects in many countries. Over the last few decades, there has been increasing attention given to the lack of demand forecast accuracy. However, since data availability for comprehensive ex-post appraisals is problematic, such studies are still relatively rare. This study presents a review of the largest ex-post studies of demand forecast accuracy for transport infrastructure projects. The focus is threefold: to provide an overview of observed levels of demand forecast inaccuracy, to highlight key contextual and methodological differences between studies and to highlight key focus areas for future research in this field. The results show that inaccuracy remains problematic for road, rail and toll projects alike, but also how the lack of methodological clarity and consistency calls for a careful interpretation of these results. Mandatory, systematic ex-post evaluation programmes are suggested as a necessary tool to improve decision support, as data availability for ex-post studies is often remarkably poor even for internal audits.     

Morphological and biochemical differentiation in Antarctic krill

During the February 1981 cruise FIBEX MD-25 between 30–50°E and 61–64°S, hydrography showed the presence of two gyres, confirmed by the geostrophic circulation relative to 1000 m from Levitus climatology, at the borders of these gyres concentrations of highly morphologically differentiated krill were found. Gaussian component analysis of krill samples, pooled by sectors, showed three cohorts of Euphausia superba in the western sector and one in the eastern sector. Across the sampling area, Thysanoessa macrura and E. superba occurred at separate stations. Analysis of cohorts in T. macrura separated two size groups in both the western and the eastern sectors. The use of a Differentiation Index (D.I.) [Färber-Lorda, J., 1990. Somatic length relationships and ontogenetic morphometric differentiation of Euphausia superba and Thysanoessa macrura of the southwest Indian Ocean during summer (February 1981). Deep-Sea Res. 37, 1135–1143.], based on somatic lengths, allows studying certain morphological differences within the populations sampled. Morphologically different and bigger males II (D.I. from 2.8 to 3.5) were present only in the southern transect while smaller males I (D.I. from 3.5 to 5.0) were present over the entire area. Biochemical composition of both species showed significant differences among stations for protein, lipids, and carbohydrates. A significant difference in lipid content was found between males I, and males II. For T. macrura, percentage of lipid content in mature animals was much higher than that in E. superba. The D.I. size distribution showed that when populations of E. superba were highly differentiated (corresponding to mature animals) in morphology, lipid content was high, and they were located near a gyre. Differences in morphometry can influence distribution of the species, because different developing stages have different swimming capacities. It is shown that, together with hydrography and trophic conditions, lipid content and morphometry of krill populations, are different but complementary aspects that help to understand krill ecology and distribution.     

可预见的无故障切削

每一个加工工艺的目标应该是在保持高生产率和低生产成本的同时,尽可能提高安全性和可预见性。为此,需要考虑以下几个因素：工件的材料、形状和尺寸、机床、CAM系统、工件和刀具的夹紧、切削刀具的选择及使用情况（见图1）。     

Elderly travel frequencies and transport mode choices in Greater Rotterdam,the Netherlands

Demographic ageing is a key societal challenge in Europe as well as in many other western and non-western societies. A crucial dimension concerns elderly daily mobility patterns. While still partaking fewer and shorter trips than younger generations, today’s elderly have been found increasingly (auto)mobile. Although the elderly benefit from the independence, freedom of movement, and social inclusion, concerns may rise regarding the environmental and accessibility impacts of this induced mobility. The present study adds to the expanding literature on elderly mobility, an integrated analysis of the effects of socio-demographic, health, trip, spatial and weather attributes on elderly mobility. Utilizing travel diary data for Greater Rotterdam, The Netherlands, trip frequencies and transport mode choices of the elderly are analysed by means of zero-inflated negative binomial models as well as multinomial logit regression models, and contrasted to the non-elderly subpopulation to explore (dis)similarities. While the results show common determinants, the models also highlight important differences in the magnitude of the estimated coefficients and factors only influencing transport patterns for the elderly. Embedded in the context of an aging population, the empirical findings assist policy-makers and planners in several respects: For transportation plans and programs it is critical to recognize mobility needs of the elderly. As the seniors are becoming increasingly automobile, the results call for strategies to encourage older people to use more physically active and environmentally friendly transport modes such as public transport, walking and cycling.