Numerical simulations of seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea thermohaline circulation

The Black Sea general circulation is simulated by a primitive equation model with active free surface. The forcing is seasonally variable and is based on available climatic data. The model reproduces the main features of the Black Sea circulation, including the river discharge effects on the mean sea level and the Bosphorus outflow. Model results show that the simulated sea surface elevation increases in spring over the whole sea, reaching a maximum in the Danube delta area. In the same region, a minimum is observed in winter. The amplitude of the seasonal oscillations (about 8–12 cm over the whole basin) is of the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal variations (about 15–18 cm between the coastal areas and the basin interior). This strong signal formed mostly by river discharges, along with the seasonal variability in the other forcing functions and the local dynamics creates a well-pronounced interannual variability. The performance of the model in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability is critically analyzed, with a special attention on the cold intermediate water formation and the circulation in the upper 150 m. The simulations demonstrate that the source of intermediate waters is on the shelf, and that the water mass in the core of cold intermediate layer changes with time as a response to the periodic forcing at sea surface. This type of variability is characterized by pronounced interannual changes, proving that important differences could exist between water mass structure in different years, even when using identical atmospheric forcings each year.     

A review of separate and joint strategies for the use of data on revealed and stated choices

This paper examines recent developments in household travel surveys that collect data for use in transportation planning and modeling efforts. The paper then introduces the notion of a total survey design and elaborates on what is meant by this concept. This is done first in the context of standard surveys of revealed choices. The paper discusses aspects of content and respondent burden and illustrates the potential to reduce respondent burden through careful consideration of content, question design, and question ordering. The paper also explores some issues of survey "friendliness" particularly with respect to activity surveys versus time-use surveys, with some observations about the potential of time-use surveys to eliminate some of the burden and content problems of previous diary designs. The remainder of the paper concentrates on the issue of collecting stated-response data and examines two alternative methods for collection: simultaneous collection of the contextual information and "on-the-fly" development of the alternatives for the stated-response questions, or sequential collection of contextual data and development of the stated-response questions. The paper also addresses issues of respondent burden that arise in the administration of stated-response surveys. The paper concludes with exploration of some of the reasons for collecting stated-response data, with particular emphasis on the US situation. In conclusion, the paper stresses again the need for a total design concept for collection of stated-response data, as well as for the simpler collection of more standard revealed choice data.     

What is induced traffic?

Investment in new or up-graded roads both raises the level and alters the pattern of accessibility over the whole area served by the road system. Vehicle-users will perceive the opportunities that this increased accessibility offers and respond in various ways, most of which can lead to more rather than less travel on the system. To the extent that travel increases overall, it can be said to have been induced by the road-improvement. Conversely, congestion as it spreads on the network will deter some travel and can be said to have a traffic suppression effect.The purpose of this first paper is to spell out, as clearly as possible, what is meant by induced traffic and to relate its various components to the full range of behavioural responses by travellers. In doing so, it draws upon the recently published (December 1994) report by the Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA) and response by the UK Government. The paper concludes with some of the implications of induced/suppressed traffic for current methods of forecasting and evaluation of road investment, which are covered in more detail by subsequent authors.     

PHOSPHORYLATION OF THE MYELOID ZINC FINGER PRO TEIN MZF－1 IS DIFFERENTIALLY REGULATED DURING MYELOPOIESIS

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Enhancing roll stability of heavy vehicle by LQR active anti-roll bar control using electronic servo-valve hydraulic actuators

Rollover of heavy vehicle is an important road safety problem world-wide. Although rollovers are relatively rare events, they are usually deadly accidents when they occur. The roll stability loss is the main cause of rollover accidents in which heavy vehicles are involved. In order to improve the roll stability, most of modern heavy vehicles are equipped with passive anti-roll bars to reduce roll motion during cornering or riding on uneven roads. However these may be not sufficient to overcome critical situations. This paper introduces the active anti-roll bars made of four electronic servo-valve hydraulic actuators, which are modelled and integrated in a yaw-roll model of a single unit heavy vehicle. The control signal is the current entering the electronic servo-valve and the output is the force generated by the hydraulic actuator. The active control design is achieved solving a linear optimal control problem based on the linear quadratic regulator (LQR) approach. A comparison of several LQR controllers is provided to allow for tackling the considered multi-objective problems. Simulation results in frequency and time domains show that the use of two active anti-roll bars (front and rear axles) drastically improves the roll stability of the single unit heavy vehicle compared with the passive anti-roll bar.     

Efficiency in Nigerian ports: handling imprecise data with a two-stage fuzzy approach

This article is focused on assessing the efficiency of six major Nigerian ports from 2007 to 2013 by applying a two-stage fuzzy-based methodology adequate to handle imprecise data. More precisely, fuzzy data envelopment analysis models for traditional assumptions with respect to scale returns are employed to assess the productivity of Nigerian ports over the course of time. In the second stage, fuzzy regressions based on different rule-based systems are used to predict the relationship of a set of contextual variables on port efficiency. These contextual variables are related to different aspects of port service level, berth utilization, accessibility, cargo type, and operator type. The results reveal the impact of operator and cargo type on efficiency levels. Policy implications for Nigerian ports are derived.     

The heritage coast program in England and Wales

Abstract

The Countryside Commission for England and Wales has adopted a coastal management system that identifies high‐value scenic areas and manages these as Heritage Coasts. The Heritage Coast program is a collaborative one between central and local government, with the central government providing technical expertise and half the funds and local authorities providing development control and staff. The approach has been successful in having most of the important scenic areas designated as Heritage Coasts, but has been less successful at getting active on‐ground management on the coasts. Less than half the defined Heritage Coasts have management plans or Heritage Coast staff. Reasons for the slow adoption of the program are discussed.     

Development of and prospects for cruising in Europe

This paper evaluates the development of prospects for cruising in Europe. It examines this within the broad framework of economic theory and maritime economics. Initially, the market structures and relationships applicable to cruising are considered with particular attention being paid to the linkages between the shipping markets and tourism and leisure. This conceptual analysis suggests that whilst cruising has a strong shipping element it does not fall exclusively within the classic framework of maritime economics but draws from both shipping and tourism and leisure. For reasons of clarity, a number of definitions are also provided covering maritime tourism and leisure, cruising, and supply and demand, as it relates to cruising. Following this, an overview of the cruise industry is included. This focuses primarily on the growth in the demand both world wide and at regional level. In particular, the analysis places the development of cruising in Europe in market perspective. Subsequently, the development of cruising in the UK is examined as a case study. Initially, UK market growth is analysed and it can be seen that the UK is now the second largest cruise market in the world after North America. Projections of the growth in UK demand to 2003 are also provided. The growth in supply is also studied and the UK targeted fleet is identified. In addition, the question of ownership is addressed. The prospects of employment for UK seafarers within the cruise industry are also considered and results obtained from the analysis suggest that it should be possible to increase the participation of UK and other European seafarers within the cruise industry at all levels and in all departments. In the final section of the paper, the position of UK ports as terminals and destinations is evaluated. It is concluded that the fundamentals of the cruise business remain strong, and continued growth by the industry should be possible for the foreseeable future.