The regulatory cycle stalled? An assessment of current institutional obstacles to regulatory reform in the provision of road-based public transport in Cape Town, South Africa

Wide-ranging and ambitious proposals for the comprehensive transformation of public transport systems in major South African cities, including Cape Town, have now been in play for a decade or more since the country’s post-apartheid transition. To date, progress in implementing such proposals has been, at best, much delayed and, in Cape Town, appears to have stalled, and may now be significantly compromised. This paper draws on aspects of the concept of regulatory cycles in the bus transport sector to explore some of the key factors which have given rise to this situation, focusing primarily on obstacles embedded in the present institutional framework which governs the provision of road-based public transport in the city. It specifically identifies difficulties in establishing an appropriately mandated and resourced agency at the local level to drive forward the transformation project and the sustained opposition of existing, largely ‘self-regulated’ minibus-taxi operators as key factors which have obstructed the introduction of the proposed regime of ‘regulated competition’. A tentative conclusion is offered to the effect that perhaps a partial or ‘hybrid’ transformation of the public transport system may be the best - and, indeed, possibly the most appropriate - outcome of the transformation process that can be anticipated under the present and foreseeable future circumstances prevailing in the city.     

Application of probability theory to marne project appraisal

The importance of specifying and quantifying the project risks in the investment decision process cannot be overemphasized. Even more so in the context of marine project appraisal, since the shiping markets are characterized by extreme volatility and high cyclicality. The use of probability theory in investment decisions is reviewed and applications are derived for marine projects. The paper focuses on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to determine the mean and variance of the input variables. Within the Monte Carlo framework three alternative methods are used for the construction of probability distributions; the scaled halves of a normal distribution, two unscaled parts of a normal distribution and finally use of altenative distributions, such as beta, gamma and chi-square. An alternative methodology is also drawn from the literature, namely the Pearson-Turkey three point approximation, to contrast with the Monte Carlo method.     

The influence of route guidance advice on route choice in urban networks

The paper begins by reviewing what is known about route choice processes and notes the mismatch between this knowledge and the route choice assumptions embedded in the most widely used assignment models. Empirical evidence on the influence of route guidance advice on route choice is reviewed and, despite its limited nature, is seen to suggest that users are reluctant to follow advice unless they find it convincing and that, the more familiar they are with the network, the less likely they are to accept advice. Typically only a small minority of journeys are made in total compliance with advice.Results from an interactive route choice simulator (IGOR) are summarised and are seen to reveal that compliance depends on the extent to which the advice is corroborated by other factors, on the drivers' familiarity with the network and on the quality of advice previously received. It is noted that the IGOR results are in a form which would enable response models to be calibrated.Recent approaches to the modelling of route choice in the context of guidance are discussed. Some are seen to make simplifying assumptions which must limit the relevance of their results; most make no allowance for the fact that drivers are unlikely to comply with all advice and several are not able to represent the benefits which guidance might bring in the context of sporadic congestion or incidents.As an alternative, a two phase model comprising a medium term strategic equilibrium and a day-specific simulation with explicit representation of driver response is proposed.Updated and extended from an earlier version published in theProceedings of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE No 425/IV-4, 1991-1).     

Safer ships, cleaner seas

P&I clubs, as shipowners' organizations providing liability insurance for the same shipowners have a particularly vital role to play in exerting peer group pressure and raising standards of safety. Solutions are, however, never as simple as one might wish; this article explores the tensions and constraints within which P&I clubs operate, analyses where they are best equipped to support the Donaldson initiative and points out that there is an inherent conflict between liberal modern society and the desire for discipline on the high seas.     

The significance and measurement of variability in travel behaviour

It is argued that an understanding of variability is central to the modelling of travel behaviour and the assessment of policy impacts, and is not the peripheral issue that it has often been considered. Drawing on recent studies in the UK and Australia, in conjunction with a review of the literature, the paper first examines the policy and analytical rationale for using multi-day data, then illustrates different ways of measuring variability, and finally discusses issues relating to the collection of suitable data for such analyses. In a policy context, there is a growing need for multi-day data to examine issues that affect general rather than one-day behaviour (e.g. to assess the distribution of user charges for road pricing, or patterns of public transport usage); while analytically, multi-day data is needed to improve our ability to identify the mechanisms behind travel behaviour and to derive better empirical relationships. Three measures of variability are presented: a graphical form showing daily differences in behaviour at the individual level; an aggregate, similarity index; and a hybrid graphical/numerical measure, which provides new insights into variability in daily patterns of behaviour. The paper raises a number of issues for debate, probably the most crucial of which is: variability in what? The way in which behaviour is measured crucially affects our conception of stability and variability.     

THE STUDY OF THE CHANGES AND MECHANISM OF HINDQUARTER VASCULAR RESISTANCE IN RATS WITH MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION

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Shipping and investment incentives: a trilogy

Governments may often try to stimulate investment in their own country by altering the climate in which such decisions are made. They achieve this by means of fiscal and financial regimes which may offer investment incentives for particular forms of investment and/or favourable financial arrangements to facilitate the purchase of particular assets. This paper discusses the form which such incentives might take and considers the literature to examine how such incentives have been perceived by businessmen whose actions they are intended to influence.     

The acquisition of pre-trip information: A stated preference approach

This paper describes a study into the effects of pre-trip information on travel behaviour, carried out as part of the DRIVE project EURONETT. The aim of the study was to investigate travellers' requirements for different types of travel information and methods of enquiry and to relate the process of information acquisition to changes in travel behaviour. The study was carried out using a stated preference approach, built on the use of a microcomputer based simulation of an in-home pre-trip information system offering information on travel times from home to City Centre, by bus and car, at different times of the day. A novel feature of the stated preference exercise was that respondents effectively generated their own choice set of alternatives through the process of information acquisition. Surveys were undertaken in parallel in Birmingham and Athens, thus allowing a comparison to be made between behaviour in typical Southern and Northern European settings.The first part of the paper discusses some of the fundamental behavioural and modelling issues raised by the introduction of advanced traveller information systems. It then describes the study methodology and the stated preference experiment. Results are presented from an analysis of the information acquisition process itself and from choice models relating the acquired information to effects on different dimensions of travel behaviour.     

Specifications for a new long-range urban transportation planning process

This paper asserts the continuing need for a long-range component to urban transportation planning, citing particularly the relationships between short- and long-range planning and the dangers of a single-minded concentration on short-range planning. However, the nature of the long-range planning procedure that is required is substantively different from that of most extant approaches. Some of the specific requirements and capabilities of a new procedure are described, and existing procedures are compared against these.In the latter part of the paper, some of the elements of a new long-range planning procedure are characterized. It is suggested that the procedure be built around a scenario approach to confronting and bounding future uncertainty. Second, the need to incor porate financial forecasting in the process is laid out and related to the scenario concept. Third, the need for travel- and impact-forecasting procedures is recognized and a set of input, output and operating requirements for such procedures are specified. It is suggested that improved sketch-planning tools may fit the requirements to a large extent. It is also suggested that some procedures or models in the process should be synthetic models, not needing calibration for each new application. Finally, a number of requirements are specified for the display and evaluation of planning proposals from this procedure. A major emphasis is placed here on transparency of the process and responsiveness to direct intervention by the decision-maker.     

The once and future experience of the California coastal conservancy

Abstract

This paper examines the activities of the California State Coastal Conservancy. It will examine the agency's procedures and identify those factors critical to its success. Finally, suggestions for improvements in its operations are given.