Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.     

Problems faced by the shipping industry in raising capital in the securities markets

This papers examines the reasons for the shipping industry's general failure to exploit the enormous capital raising potential offered by the world's major security markets. The basic reason put forward is one of joint ignorance and lack a of communication. On the one hand shipping perceives the market as being unsympathetic to its requierments. On the other hand, the Stock market assess it as a minor activity and this is combined with a presumption of industrial instability. An analysis of recent initial public offering of equaity options in shipping highlights the inadequacy of companies who have ventured that way. In particular it is pointed out that shipping companies who embark on such a course must not forget that equaity is, at one end the same time, the cheapest and the most expensive money which they can raise. There is a further underlying problem for the industry, which is that market capital raising neccessiates the loss of personal control.     

A simulation‐based reliability assessment approach for congested transit network

This paper is an attempt to develop a generic simulation‐based approach to assess transit service reliability, taking into account interaction between network performance and passengers' route choice behaviour. Three types of reliability, say, system wide travel time reliability, schedule reliability and direct boarding waiting‐time reliability are defined from perspectives of the community or transit administration, the operator and passengers. A Monte Carlo simulation approach with a stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment model embedded is proposed to quantify these three reliability measures of transit service. A simple transit network with a bus rapid transit (BRT) corridor is analysed as a case study where the impacts of BRT components on transit service reliability are evaluated preliminarily.     

The impact of a port on its local economy: the case of Plymouth

It has been suggested in two potentially influential documents that the development of ports could be an important tool of regional economic growth in areas such as South West England. This proposition is analysed in this article by detailed examination of the case of Plymouth, one of the areas in the region for which port development has been mooted. It is concluded that the Plymouth evidence suggests that it is easy to exaggerate the existing and potential role of ports in the regional development process. Ports are not big employers of labour and are no longer the inter-related industrial complexes that they once were. In most cases, therefore, they serve industry in areas distant from their own.     

Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

Scientists and Crew

This study reports on scientist/crew relations aboard research vessels at sea. It is a case study in a case study in a long-range project dealing with the relations of natural scientists in the U.S.A. to various segments of the lay population. An earlier paper dealt with the interaction of scientists and Government policy makers during the science-advisory process [1]. In that study we found that the frustration was reciprocal; scientists and policy makers were equally vocal on what was wrong with ‘ the other groups’. The present research, by comparison, focuses on scientists and members of ‘the working class’. Here we find the frustration rather one-sided, reflecting the differences in status and power of the two groups. On a research vessel, science and scientists control the lives and careers of the mariners. In the science-advising committee, members of both government and science meet as social equals.

In this paper elements of conflict between scientists and crew on a research vessel are described. It is suggested that conflict between these two groups is the inevitable result of extending the ‘intellectual’/‘worker’ class conflict of our society to a closed space at sea. The controlling mechanism of the conflict may be called ‘subcultural privacy’, a mechanism worked out by mariners to cope with the disrupting effects of a constant stream of strangers into their sea-going home. The mechanism takes the form of institutionalized ‘bitching’ and systematic physical separation of scientists and crew during critical periods of the day. It is suggested that attempts to create greater crew/scientist harmony by forcing by greater interaction (and thus a breakdown of subcultural privacy) will be counter productive.     

Criteria for local transport subsidies

Governments have rarely been content to leave the provision of public transport services entirely to the market. Competition has been regulated and increasingly services have been subsidized from public funds. However, the criteria for such subsidies have been a continuing source of debate. Economists have tended to emphasize efficiency criteria and advocated the use of cost‐benefit analysis, but, for a variety of reasons, in the U.K. at least, this approach does not seem to have played a major role in the allocation of subsidies. Others have advocated more needs‐based approaches. Whilst these have been tried, they also have their limitations. The first few sections of the paper, therefore, review the development of these approaches in the U.K. and consider their shortcomings from the point of view of deciding on transport subsidies. In the latter part of the paper it is suggested that developments in the appraisal of health care procedures, particularly in the use of cost‐utility techniques, indicate a possible alternative approach. The approach in the health context is outlined and it is demonstrated how it might be applied to the appraisal of local transport services.     

观市2011

全球经济机遇与挑战并存 2011年全球经济复苏呈现"双轨"态势.国际货币基金组织(IMP)预测2011年和2012年新兴经济体和发展中国家将保持在6.5%的增长水平,略低于2010年7%的增速,其中增速最快的仍是亚洲发展中国家的中国和印度.2011年和2012年发达国家经济将增长2.5%.     

NOBODY NEEDS A BOAT 作一名感觉销售者

生活对每个人来说都是必需的。作为一个行业，我们没有太多理由认为人们会受诱惑买我们的产品。 的确,一个客户可能会对某船的尺寸和独特设计有兴趣，甚至对它的设计建造最细微的细节都感兴趣；但是从一开始就吸引他的其实是一个简单的感情，那就是这艘船给他的感觉如何。