Some insights in novel risk modeling of liquefied natural gas carrier maintenance operations

This study discusses the analysis of various modeling approaches and maintenance techniques applicable to the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier operations in the maritime environment. Various novel modeling techniques are discussed; including genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic and evidential reasoning. We also identify the usefulness of these algorithms in the LNG carrier industry in the areas of risk assessment and maintenance modeling.     

Enabling a viable technique for the optimization of LNG carrier cargo operations

In this study, we optimize the loading and discharging operations of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier. First, we identify the required precautions for LNG carrier cargo operations. Next, we prioritize these precautions using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and experts’ judgments, in order to optimize the operational loading and discharging exercises of the LNG carrier, prevent system failure and human error, and reduce the risk of marine accidents. Thus, the objective of our study is to increase the level of safety during cargo operations.     

熔融石英砂动力特性动三轴试验

为探究振动荷载作用下熔融石英砂液化破坏过程中动变形和动强度变化规律, 促进透明土技术在岩土工程动力特性可视化模型试验中的推广和应用, 对构成透明砂土骨架结构的典型粒径(0.5~1.0 mm)熔融石英砂开展饱和试样动三轴试验; 研究了不同围压、加载频率和动应力比等试验条件下熔融石英砂试样的累积轴向应变、动孔压发展模式、动应力衰减、动弹性模量和阻尼比的变化规律, 并将试验结果与相同级配的标准砂进行了对比。分析结果表明: 熔融石英砂累积轴向应变随动应力比的增大呈现出由稳定型向破坏型转变的趋势, 加载频率为0.5~1.5 Hz时, 临界动应力比为0.150~0.175, 小于标准砂的0.200~0.225;升高围压、增大动应力比、降低加载频率会加快试样塑性应变累积, 缩短液化破坏时间; 熔融石英砂孔压发展模式随围压增大逐渐由Seed孔压模型向指数型过渡, 增大加载动应力会加剧液化破坏后孔压的振动幅度; 相同动应力比下, 熔融石英砂与标准砂的动应力与动应变呈现线性相关, 在围压大于200 kPa时, 二者动应力衰减幅度随围压的增大而逐渐减小; 熔融石英砂的动弹性模量和阻尼比表现为线性关系, 动弹性模量随动应变的增大呈现出双曲线型减小的趋势, 并随围压的增大而增大; 阻尼比随动应变的增加先增大后基本稳定在0.22, 发展曲线受围压影响较小。      

低剂量水稳碎石混合料成型工艺对比研究

基于同一级配低剂量半刚性基层混合料,本文分析了振动法和击实法两种方法成型试件的强度和力学特点。并通过实体工程对试验结果进行了验证。     

Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

Impacts of urban built environment on empty taxi trips using limited geolocation data

This study identifies the determinants of the empty taxi trip duration (ETTD) by combining three high-resolution databases—geolocation data in New York City, geodatabase of urban planning data, and transportation facilities data. Considering the nature of duration data, hazard-based duration model is proposed to explore the relationships between causal factors and ETTD, coupling with three variations of baseline hazard distribution, i.e., Weibull distribution with heterogeneity, Weibull distribution, and log-logistic. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio test is presented to implement comparisons of three baseline hazard distributions, as well as spatial and temporal transferability of causal factors. The results show significant complementary effects by subway system and competitive effects by city bus and bicycling system, as well as significant impacts of trip length, airport trip, average annual income, and employment rate. Urban built environment, for instance, density of road, public facilities, and recreational sites and ratio of green space, has various impacts on ETTD. The elasticity estimations confirm significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in impacts on ETTD. In addition, the analysis on elasticity also reveals the considerable impacts of severe traffic congestion on ETTD within Manhattan. The modeling can assist stakeholders in understanding empty taxi movements and measuring taxi system efficiency in urban areas.     

Book reviews

The European Community Transport Policy: Towards a Common Transport Policy. By Jurgen Erdmenger (Gower Publishing Co. 1984) [Pp. 155.] £14.50.

Transport Reform: Changing the Rules. By Stephen Plowden. P.S.I. No. 642 (London: Institute, 1985.) [Pp. 250.] £6.50. ISBN 0–85374–258–8.

The Atlas of British Railway History. By Michael Freeman and Derek Aldcroft (London: Croom Helm, 1985.) [Pp. 128.] £12.95.

Losing Track. By Kerry Hamilton and Stephen Potter (Routledge & Kegan Paul in association with Channel Four, 1985.) [Pp. viii + 152.] £7.95. Paperback.     

上海市道路隧道结构设计标准综述

通过调研和总结上海已建15座盾构隧道的设计资料,对现有隧道存在的病害进行了归类分析,提出了隧道病害的预防与治理措施;对明挖段的围护设计选型、结构工程规模和盾构隧道几何设计参数进行了统计分析,提出了明挖接线段围护结构选型及插入比的建议,明确了明挖结构的计算模型和计算参数;对已建盾构隧道的埋深、最小曲线半径、最小线间距、最大坡度等几何参数进行了详细分析,总结出了工作井平面尺寸的确定方法和盾构进出洞的关键技术。     

Effect of nozzle orifice diameter on diesel spray tip penetration according to various spray models for CFD simulation with widely varying back pressure

CFD simulations of spray tip penetration with the standard KIVA3V, ‘original gas jet’ and ‘Normal gas jet profile with breakup length formula’ (NGJBL) spray models were performed to investigate the effects of nozzle orifice size and ambient gas density combinations on the spray penetration. The accuracy of the CFD simulation results was estimated by comparing them with available experimental data. The ambient gas density was varied in 12 kg/m³ intervals from 12 to 69 kg/m³ for each nozzle orifice diameter. The nozzle orifice diameters used were 119, 140, 183 and 206 mm. A total of 20 cases in the CFD simulations were considered with combinations of the 4 nozzle orifice diameters and 5 ambient gas densities. CFD simulations with the NGJBL spray model were more accurate than those with either the standard KIVA3V or gas jet spray models as the nozzle orifice diameter and ambient gas density was increased. The NGJBL and original gas jet model is more effective in predicting the spray tip penetration near the nozzle tip region.