Optimal design and benefits of a short turning strategy for a bus corridor

We develop a short turning model using demand information from station to station within a single bus line-single period setting, aimed at increasing the service frequency on the more loaded sections to deal with spatial concentration of demand considering both operators’ and users’ costs. We find analytical expressions for optimal values of the design variables, namely frequencies (inside and outside the short cycle), capacity of vehicles and the position of the short turn limit stations. These expressions are used to analyze the influence of different parameters in the final solution. The design variables and the corresponding cost components for operators and users (waiting and in-vehicle times) are compared against an optimized normal operation scheme (single frequency). Applications on actual transit corridors exhibiting different demand profiles are conducted, calculating the optimal values for the design variables and the resulting benefits for each case. Results show the typical demand configurations that are better served using a short turn strategy.     

Meta-analysis of UK values of travel time: An update

Numerous travel demand studies have been carried out over the past five decades, many of which produce estimates of the value of travel time. This includes a rich body of largely unpublished evidence, which can provide valuable insights into the impact of variables such as GDP, travel distance, purpose and mode on this critical parameter for transport modelling and appraisal. The work reported in this paper updates and extends our previous meta-analyses of UK values of time ( [Wardman, 1998], [Wardman, 2001a] and [Wardman, 2004]) by adding recent studies and widening the range of explanatory variables included. Our current research covers 226 studies carried out between 1960 and 2008, yielding a total of 1749 valuations (a 50% increase relative to our previous work) and making this the largest data set of its kind to the best of our knowledge. This is also the most comprehensive study to date of parameters other than in-vehicle time and includes valuations of walk, wait, headway, congested, free flow, late, departure time shift and search time. Exploratory analysis of the data set provides interesting insights into methodological trends in travel demand modelling.For each valuation, over thirty quantitative and categorical variables were recorded and then included in a multivariate regression model to explain variations in the value of time. A large number of statistically significant effects were obtained from this meta-analysis, some of which are in marked contrast with, or not present in, our previous work. One finding that stands out is that the estimated elasticity of the value of time with respect to GDP per capita is 0.9 and highly significant, a much closer correspondence to the widely used convention of a unit income elasticity over time than we have previously obtained. The ratio between walk and wait time and in-vehicle time was found to be substantially lower than the commonly used value of two. We also found large and significant differences between the results from studies based on different types of Stated Preference survey presentation. Other important effects include variations by mode used, mode valued, travel purpose, attribute type and distance. It is envisaged that the results are of direct relevance in the British context, as inputs to appraisal or for benchmarking, whilst the methodological implications are of broader interest and the results, in terms of time equivalents and variations in values of time, can be transferred to other contexts.     

A simulation evaluation of the maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimator for mixed multinomial probit models

This paper evaluates the ability of the maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimation approach to recover parameters from finite samples in mixed cross-sectional and panel multinomial probit models. Comparisons with the maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimation approach are also undertaken. The results indicate that the MACML approach recovers parameters much more accurately than the MSL approach in all model structures and covariance specifications. The MACML inference approach also estimates the parameters efficiently, with the asymptotic standard errors being, in general, only a small proportion of the true values. As importantly, the MACML inference approach takes only a very small fraction of the time needed for MSL estimation. In particular, the results suggest that, for the case of five random coefficients, the MACML approach is about 50 times faster than the MSL for the cross-sectional random coefficients case, about 15 times faster than the MSL for the panel inter-individual random coefficients case, and about 350 times or more faster than the MSL for the panel intra- and inter-individual random coefficients case. As the number of alternatives in the unordered-response model increases, one can expect even higher computational efficiency factors for the MACML over the MSL approach. Further, as should be evident in the panel intra- and inter-individual random coefficients case, the MSL is all but practically infeasible when the mixing structure leads to an explosion in the dimensionality of integration in the likelihood function, but these situations are handled with ease in the MACML approach. It is hoped that the MACML procedure will spawn empirical research into rich model specifications within the context of unordered multinomial choice modeling, including autoregressive random coefficients, dynamics in coefficients, space-time effects, and spatial/social interactions.     

Biologie, transport, complexité

As a result of some of the analogies between biology and transport, including the concepts of evolution and selection, we are wondering whether some ideas and methods used in biology may not be used to provide research avenues within the field of transportation. We are interested in the idea of complexity, which is common to the two scientific fields, but not treated in the same way by either of the two disciplines. By observing the way in which systemic biology has developed, from a largely “data-driven” approach to research guided by data, we are questioning whether such a direction would be possible in the field of transportation. This investigation also leads us to ask questions about “modules”, or the boundaries of the subsystems studied in the field of transportation, through the observation that molecular biology defines these boundaries in terms of the function of the subsystems. In conclusion, we are expressing the notion that these comparisons will lead to new research avenues in the field of transportation.     

Mixité sociale et choix modal : importance des dimensions symboliques dans l’attrait des transports collectives

Our understanding of transport mode choice is largely based upon functional attributes, such as travel time, cost or accessibility. It is important, however, to also look at symbolic and affective attributes. Indeed, one of the main differences between mass transit and private car use is strongly symbolic: public transport compels users to confront social diversity. Given a hypothetical choice between those modes, 200 residents of the Parisian region were asked five times to evaluate (measuring usage intention on a six point scale: ?3 meaning never and +3 meaning always, with no neutral point) the attractiveness of bus versus car-based transport, according to relative travel time and bus users’ population type. The results show that the symbolic dimension (the social mix) strongly contributes to the desirability of a transport mode, as does the functional dimension (travel time).     

Understanding the ocean container market—a seven country study [1]

Carrier selection criteria have been an issue in carrier marketing since the 1970s. Investigator location and interest has usually limited customer surveys to one geographic market. Market characteristics—differing purchase and service characteristics—have led to model seperation in the studies undertaken and sample size has constrained most researchers to reporting results as though customers were homogeneous in their needs. This has resulted in price versus service debates with conflicting conclusions. This paper explores the differences in the importance of various ocean container carrier selection criteria on the North Atlantic route for discrete geographic and customer segments. The paper reviewss the carrier selection literature and notes that carrier selection research to date has generally suffered from one or more of three problems: (1) because the research has focused on criteria 'importance', it has not identified determinants of purchase behaviour, that is, the 'salience' of different criteria; (2) the research has had sample size problems leading to the need to assume that the market is homogeneous or, less acceptable, that importance ratings will identify usable segments via factor analysis; and (3) carrier perfomance evaluation in conjucation with determinant criteria has largely been ignored. The paper focused on the problems surrounding the second of these by evaluating the relative importance of various service attributes for different geographic and customer dimensions. The paper concludes that the market is definitely not homogeneous in its requirements of carriers and that different elements surface as important both in identifiable geographical markets and customer groups. It also draws a number of conclusions about carrier choice in future and the implications for academic research.     

Optimization and Performance Enhancement of Active Suspensions for Automobiles under Preview of the Road

The problem of deriving control laws which minimize specified performance indices for a vehicle moving on a rough surface with preview of the surface elevation is considered. The approach is based on linear optimal tracking theory and consequently the system elements are taken to be linear and the performance index is constrained to be of quadratic form.

The ideas of overtaking optimality are applied to the problem in order to achieve a closed form solution for the control. Then, using the control laws derived, computer simulations of performance are conducted and time histories are shown. In the absence of limitations on either processing or actuator speeds, and for cases in which the preview is sufficient to give good control laws, the value of the preview in enhancing vehicle suspension performance is assessed. Comparisons are made with results in the literature.     

Optimization of tunnel tolls in land use and transport planning

The task of transport planning is to determine cost-effective methods of providing and improving mobility, which can include minimizing traffic congestion. A cost-effective solution to transport problems should consist of a land use pattern, a transport system an a set of road pricing policies that together bring demand and supply into balance in an efficient and equitable way. The conventional approach aimed to produce comprehensive, long-term plans for land use and transport in considerable detail, but tended to ignore the role of road pricing policy, thus ending up with solutions that might not be efficient or economical. This feature of sub-optimal road pricing policy is accentuated by the overall growth in car use, which has generated problems with the efficient use of road space. This paper presents a computer analysis system (or model) which will enable the analysis of coordinated tunnel toll pricing policies by optimising an “objective function” while satisfying the associated and other constraints. The possibility of integrating the optimal road pricing policies in the land use and transport planning are discussed. A case study based on Hong Kong data demonstrates the efficiency of optimizing tolls on two of the three harbour crossing tunnels in Hong Kong.     

The theory of second best in urban mass transit: Management in the public sector as a proforma exercise

This paper focuses on four issues. The first is the case of one-sided investments in mass transit in metropolitan areas of developing countries. It is pointed out that in many cases in which the conditions for optimum investment policies (Pareto's Optimum) are not maintained, excessive investments on mass transit, including large annual operating subsidies, usually lead to substantial sub-optimizations and waste of scarce financial resources. This problem is then reviewed under the light of the “Theory of Second Best” as articulated for all investment options within Welfare Economic Theory. The second issue examined is the matter of recently discovered important diseconomies of scale of large metro transit systems in developing and developed countries, and the need to retain production of transport services within small-scale production units that are well coordinated and controlled. The third issue discussed is the problem of mismanagement of most public sector transit companies and agencies. The notion that most such systems are simply administered, not managed, is being brought up and the requirements for proper management are amplified. Finally, the case of public vs. private ownership of mass transit is being discussed with a distinction between public policies of providing mass transit services and the actual production process of these services. Provision of services represents a public responsibility that belongs to the public sector. However, production of service is a techno-economic process that requires different talents and circumstances. The paper concludes with a strong suggestion for major reorientation of urban mass transit in the metro areas of developing countries towards more efficiency and higher productivity.