Samuel M. Vance  Arif S. Malik 《先进运输杂志》2015,49(7):829-854

This research investigates factors that influence opinion in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners primarily from the perspective of aviation and technology professionals. Bayesian statistical inference and a two‐level fractional factorial survey are used to sample passengers' views on fully autonomous airliners. Eight trust, safety, and cost factors are incorporated into a vignette set in the future. Factors include automation levels, safety records, liability guarantees, airline integrity, and service disruptions. Dependent variables exist in five post‐vignette questions and essentially ask “Would you” or “Would you not” be willing to fly on a fully autonomous airliner? Sixteen versions of the vignette, each with unique trust, safety, and cost levels, present varying (unknown) degrees of influence to the survey respondents. For every demographic, the research shows a 99% statistically significant difference between the “prior” and “posterior” sampled population proportions willing to fly. The most significant positive influence involves integrity characteristics of the airline, while the most negative influence relates to life insurance liability guarantees. Research from 2003 suggested that this mode of travel would be acceptable to only 10.5% of respondents. When the 2003 research is used as a Bayesian prior probability, the resulting posterior probability for the demographics sampled can be modeled as a beta distribution, indicating 95% probability that the sampled proportion of the population willing to fly is between 33.2% and 36.4%. After adjusting for age and profession demographics to match the US population, the 95% probability bounds on the proportion willing to fly are 31.35% and 34.15%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

    

N. M. Waters  S. C. Wirasinghe  A. Babalola  K. E. D. Marion 《先进运输杂志》1986,20(2):133-150

The location of bus garages is a complex issue that has received recent attention in the literature. Given a bus system, the number of bus garages and their locations depend on garage cost, deadheading cost and environmental impacts. An approximate analytical model is used to determine the number of bus garages that minimizes the above costs. The concept of a slowly varying density of bus-route origins (hence deadheads) per unit area is used to model deadheading costs. The increased deadheading caused by breakdowns and accidents is also considered. The garage cost is modeled as a function of the number of buses stored. A closed-form solution is obtained for the optimal density of garages, when the garage cost function is linear. The actual locations of garages and the allocations of buses to the garages are found using a discrete space location-allocation model formulated so as to consider the environmental impact associated with buses deadheading through populated neighborhoods.  相似文献   

    

Frank S. Koppelman 《Transportation》1981,10(2):127-146

Models of individual choice behavior have been extensively developed and used in travel prediction during the last ten years. These models are generally formulated with utility functions that are linear in parameters. Theories of economics and psychology suggest that the true relationship between service variables and utility is non-linear. In this paper we demonstrate that non-linear transformations of time and cost variables produce statistically significant improvements in the model estimated, have a theoretically appealing interpretation, and lead to managerially important differences in policy evaluations. These results support the need to refine the specification of choice utility functions based on theoretical considerations and empirical research.  相似文献   

  总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Eric I. Pas  Frank S. Koppelman 《Transportation》1987,14(1):3-20

Day-to-day variability in individuals' travel behavior (intrapersonal variability) has been recognized in conceptual discussions, yet the analysis and modeling of urban travel are typically based on a single day record of each individual's travel. This paper develops and examines hypotheses regarding the determinants of intrapersonal variability in urban travel behavior.Two general hypotheses are formulated to describe the effects of motivations for travel and related behavior and of travel and related constraints on intrapersonal variability in weekday urban travel behavior. Specific hypotheses concerning the effect of various sociodernographic characteristics on intrapersonal variability are derived from these general hypotheses. These specific hypotheses are tested empirically in the context of daily trip frequency using a five-day record of travel in Reading, England.The empirical results support the two general hypotheses. First, individuals who have fewer economic and role-related constraints have higher levels of intrapersonal variability in their daily trip frequency. Second, individuals who fulfil personal and household needs that do not require daily participation in out-of-home activities have higher levels of intrapersonal variability in their daily trip frequency.  相似文献   

    

D. W. Shuttlewood  D. A. Crolla  R. S. Sharp  I. L. Crawford 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》1993,22(5):383-396

The development of a mathematical model of a limited bandwidth hydro-pneumatic suspension that is incorporated into a vehicle handling model is described. The combined model is used to evaluate a suitable control strategy for eliminating body roll during a cornering manoeuvre. The philosophy behind the roll control strategy has been to use feedback measurements of the body motions which do not compromise the ride control. A study of the influence of the position of the body motion feedback transducer on the effectiveness of the system to reduce the body roll is presented. Non-linear modelling of the suspension components for a 0.8g cornering manoeuvre has revealed performance limitations. Conclusions are drawn as to the effectiveness of the control scheme.  相似文献   

    

Peter R. Stopher 《Transportation》1992,19(2):159-176

The paper describes the results of a pilot survey that used a one-day activity diary to collect origin-destination data, as opposed to a travel-based diary. The design of the diary is discussed, together with a comparison to a more conventional travel diary. The paper examines the extent to which the activity diary appears to have been capable of collecting good travel data that is at least comparable to travel diary efforts. In addition, a substantial portion of the paper is concerned with a comparison of the retrieval methods for the diaries. Two alternative methods were pilot-tested, one being the use of telephone retrieval and the other being mailback retrieval. Although the pilot test used small samples, the evidence appears to be strong that mailback is preferable to telephone retrieval, while telephone retrieval did not seem capable of providing some of the benefits often ascribed to it.  相似文献   

    

William R. Black 《Transportation》1991,18(3):199-206

The use of correlation coefficients to evaluate the accuracy of spatial interaction models is inappropriate unless such models have been fitted using least squares techniques. In other cases the correlation involves an implicit intercept value and a regression coefficient that may significantly modify the interaction model's estimates. Researchers have not acknowledged the role of these two parameters when the correlation is used. A generalized root mean square error is proposed as an alternative indicator of accuracy that may be used with any model.  相似文献   

    

B. R. Dansie 《Transportation Research Part B: Methodological》1985,19(6):526-528

A particular parameter estimability problem in the multinomial probit model is considered. Making use of a model discussed in the literature, some problems with the usual method of specification are discussed. Some general comments are made on the problem of selecting a normalisation when using the multinomial probit model.  相似文献   

    

R. M. Goodall  W. Kortü  m 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》1983,12(4):225-257

Active control systems offer significant functional advantages over passive systems; their introduction into production-line vehicles, however, is cautious and slow. This survey describes the recent progress in the analysis, design and technology of active controls in vehicles. It includes the state-of-the-art of their introduction into operation as well as their future potential in view of recent advances in technology and computer aided design strategies. The survey has been limited to suspensions for vehicles on roads and tracks.  相似文献   

  总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

H. Alscher  M. Iguchi  A. R. Eastham  I. Boldea 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》1983,12(4):259-289

As a result of extensive research and development in several countries, the technologies of magnetic suspension and linear electric drives are becoming available for transportation applications. The successful demonstration and operation of prototype vehicles has established the technical viability of these systems. Several urban transit or shuttle services, with magnetic suspension and/or linear motor propulsion are likely to be operational within 3-4 years. After the final stages ofdevelopment and rigorous testing, high speed systems are likely to be an option for intercity implementation by the end of the decade. This paper presents a report on the worldwide status of R&D and test programs of non-contact suspension and propulsion technology for guided ground transport.  相似文献