A latent variable representation of count data models to accommodate spatial and temporal dependence: Application to predicting crash frequency at intersections

This paper proposes a reformulation of count models as a special case of generalized ordered-response models in which a single latent continuous variable is partitioned into mutually exclusive intervals. Using this equivalent latent variable-based generalized ordered response framework for count data models, we are then able to gainfully and efficiently introduce temporal and spatial dependencies through the latent continuous variables. Our formulation also allows handling excess zeros in correlated count data, a phenomenon that is commonly found in practice. A composite marginal likelihood inference approach is used to estimate model parameters. The modeling framework is applied to predict crash frequency at urban intersections in Arlington, Texas. The sample is drawn from the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) crash incident files between 2003 and 2009, resulting in 1190 intersection-year observations. The results reveal the presence of intersection-specific time-invariant unobserved components influencing crash propensity and a spatial lag structure to characterize spatial dependence. Roadway configuration, approach roadway functional types, traffic control type, total daily entering traffic volumes and the split of volumes between approaches are all important variables in determining crash frequency at intersections.     

Recent Development in Active Steering of Railway Vehicles

Summary This paper presents the recent development on active steering for railway vehicles, and carries out a technical appraisal of different actuation schemes and control approaches. It brings together the latest research activities and findings for the full active steering techniques for rail vehicles with the solid-axle wheelsets, independently-rotating wheelsets and wheel-pairs without axles, but relevant work on passive and semi-active solutions is also briefly described. Potential benefits of the use of a combination of modern control technology and mechatronic approach are evaluated, and in particular solutions for the difficult design trade-off between the stability and the curving performance are presented. Various actuation configurations are discussed, and advantages and drawbacks of those schemes are investigated. The outline design using a number of control methods is analysed, and measurement requirement and state estimation techniques essential for implementation of the active steering schemes are also explored. In addition the issue of safety criticality is highlighted and a possible approach for developing fault-tolerant systems is proposed. Overall the paper provides an authoritative assessment of the major advances in actively-steered wheels and addresses outstanding critical issues.     

国际铁路行业标准(IRIS)的现状与前景

国际铁路行业标准(简称IRIS)已成为优化铁路行业及其与其他相关行业增值链的国际性体系标准。介绍了IRIS体系建立的经过、与ISO 9001:2000之间的差别及通过其认证所带来的益处。     

The adaptation of the Polish shipping companies to market conditions

At the end of the eighties, fundamental changes took place in Polish shipping. Implementation of the market economy system was at first demonstrated in the introduction of the principles of self-dependence, self-government and self-financing of the shipping companies. Privatization performed a key role in the program of transformation of the centrally planned system into market oriented financially independent shipping organizations. The previous principle of the necessary participation of the home fleet in transporting domestic sea-borne trade has been mostly replaced by cross-trade. Many shipping services have left its basic ports in the country for a West European basis, securing alimentation of home and transit cargoes by feeder–service systems. Joint stock companies in shipping with substantial shares of foreign capital are welcomed, and the previously obligatory system of administrative methods of the state monopoly has been abolished. The principles of shipping policy represented in the past by Poland and also by UNCTAD in the 1960s have lost their impact and must be change and adapted to the new demands of the shipping markets.     

On appropriate microstate descriptions in entropy modelling

Using an information-theoretic approach to entropy modelling, expressions for the possible number of microstates are derived from the sets of choices available to households and firms in given location/transport planning situations. In planning applications, the urban space is usually subdivided into discrete zones, and various classes of householders and firms are grouped into separate activities. Nevertheless, the location sites within zones may vary considerably in accessibility, price and quality, and amenity v. cost trade-offs between location and travel many differ markedly between individuals within the same activity group. The inclusion of such variations within a random utility framework is demonstrated to be equivalent to maximizing entropy with the microstates disaggregated to the level where these variations occur. Using constraints based on spatial conditions, observed behaviour and planning policy, entropy maximization is used to determine the most probable macrostate according to each choice set specification. The resulting distributions are compared and their revelance discussed.     

Establishment of a Dredged Material Disposal Site in the Exclusive Economic Zone: New Zealand

Disposal options for muddy dredged material, especially if lightly contaminated, is an issue facing many countries, particularly if environmental protection and adherence to the Protocols of the London Dumping Convention is a regulatory requirement. For the case of the oceanic islands of New Zealand, disposal of muddy dredged material has become an issue for the prime city of Auckland. Accordingly, it has been necessary to investigate a suitable marine disposal site outside of the territorial seas in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Ideal properties for such a disposal site include a near flat surface on the continental shelf, with sediments of similar textural characteristics to the material being disposed, a site of non-critical benthic ecology, water depths sufficient to enable the disposal site to be monitored (as required under the London Dumping Convention), a site experiencing low shelf currents, not affected by significant wave agitation, and a site not of cultural significance. The approach for site establishment and gaining consent for disposal activities is reviewed. Preliminary investigations supporting a proposed site on the continental shelf in the EEZ are presented.     

12毫米厚铝合金板的搅拌摩擦焊研究(英文)

Most of the investigations regarding friction stir welding(FSW)of aluminum alloy plates have been limited to about 5 to 6mm thick plates.In prior work conducted the various aspects concerning the process parameters and the FSW tool geometry were studied utilizing friction stir welding of 12 mm thick commercial grade aluminum alloy.Two different simple-tomanufacture tool geometries were used.The effect of varying welding parameters and dwell time of FSW tool on mechanical properties and weld quality was examined.It was observed that in order to achieve a defect free welding on such thick aluminum alloy plates,tool having trapezoidal pin geometry was suitable.Adequate tensile strength and ductility can be achieved utilizing a combination of high tool rotational speed of about 2000 r/min and low speed of welding around 28 mm/min.At very low and high dwell time the ductility of welded joints are reduced significantly.     

Further aspects of rectangular routeing in Smeed's City

Two types of routeing on a rectangular system of roads are examined in a simple circular city where homes and workplaces are uniformly and independently distributed. Expressions for the number of vehicles crossing a given line segment, the average distance travelled by a commuter and the total number of crossings of vehicle paths in the city are derived. Comparisons are made with other routeing systems in terms of average distance travelled, expected number of crossings and average travel time.     

Sensitivity of the wheel–rail contact interactions and Dang Van Fatigue Index in the rail with respect to irregularities of the track geometry

This paper investigates the effects of the track geometry irregularities on the wheel–rail dynamic interactions and the rail fatigue initiation through the application of the Dang Van criterion, that supposes an elastic shakedown of the structure. The irregularities are modelled, using experimental data, as a stochastic field which is representative of the considered railway network. The tracks thus generated are introduced as the input of a railway dynamics software to characterise the stochastic contact patch and the parameters on which it depends: contact forces and wheelset–rail relative position. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis is performed on quantities of interest representative of the dynamic behaviour of the system, with respect to the stochastic geometry irregularities and for different curve radius classes and operating conditions. The estimation of the internal stresses and the fatigue index being more time-consuming than the dynamical simulations, the sensitivity analysis is performed through a metamodel, whose input parameters are the wheel–rail relative position and velocity. The coefficient of variation of the number of fatigue cycles, when the simulations are performed with random geometry irregularities, varies between 0.13 and 0.28. In a large radius curve, the most influent irregularity is the horizontal curvature, while, in a tight curve, the gauge becomes more important.