中国城市轨道交通未来十年发展趋势及政策导向

分析了我国城市轨道交通的发展现状、特点和问题.结合城市轨道交通的发展趋势,探讨了发展过程中的政策缺陷.从综合性、公交优先、国产化、标准化、市场化以及一体化等方面提出了发展我国城市轨道交通的导向政策.     

Adaptation planning for climate-resilient urban infrastructures

This paper analyzes the interdependency across two critical infrastructures of transportation and motor fueling supply chains, and investigates how vulnerability to climatic extremes in a fueling infrastructure hampers the resilience of a transportation system. The proposed model features both a bi-stage mathematical program and an extension to an ‘α-reliable mean-excess’ regret model. The former aspect allows decision makers to optimize the pre-disaster asset prepositioning against the maximum post-disaster system resilience. The latter aspect of the proposed model devalues the impact of ‘low-probability, high-cost’ sub-scenarios upon model results. The model reveals the reliance of post-disaster urban mobility on the interdependent critical infrastructure of motor fueling supply chains. The results also suggest how investment in the fueling infrastructure’s vulnerable elements protects urban mobility while the transportation network is stressed or under attack.     

Investigation and analysis of high temperature corrosion and degradation of marine boiler combustion swirler

The present paper investigated and analyzed swirler material consisting of mild steel which was subjected to service for the period of one year in a 30 MW marine boiler. Due to the presence of high temperatures in the furnace coupled with the corrosive marine environment swirler material showed accelerated degradation and material wastage. An investigation into the feasibility of manufacturing the existing swirler with an alternate material or coating the swirler material with a thermal barrier coating was undertaken. Based on their properties and performance, SS 304 and SS 316 were proposed as the replacement materials for the swirler. The other alternative of coating the existing swirlers with a form thermal barrier coating to observe for any improvement in their performance at elevated temperatures was also tested. Stellite, which is a Ni-Co based coating, was carried out on the MS samples and the same were exposed to same temperatures mentioned above. The performance of the available options was evaluated with respect to the grain structure of the material, the hardness value of the materials and deterioration at elevated temperatures. Investigation showed the proposed materials/coatings like SS 304, SS 316 and Stellite coating revealed that SS 316 is the material best suited for high temperature application.     

Quantifying traveler information provision in dynamic heterogeneous traffic networks

Information is effectively the same as a change in uncertainty perceived by an observer. This paper adopts the strict definition of information from Shannon’s Information Theory and provides procedures for quantifying effective provision of traveler information, considering it to be equivalent to the change of perceived uncertainty. The proposed method combines a cognitive grouping theory and an information learning scheme at an individual’s level to evaluate the dynamic information provision in the unit of a bit. Such numerical quantification can be meaningful in evaluating alternatives with more fine-grained information provision strategies and understanding their equity impact. Quantifying information in a manner consistent with Information Theory also provides a ‘shared language’ that facilitates more constructive discussion among stakeholders from different backgrounds. The case study is conducted on a heterogeneous dynamic traffic network near Downtown Los Angeles for evaluating different alternatives of a proposed dynamic message board in terms of its location and dynamic content.     

Some observed details of freeway traffic evolution

Certain details of traffic evolution were studied along a 2 km, homogenous freeway segment located upstream of a bottleneck. By comparing (transformed) cumulative curves constructed from the vehicle counts measured at neighboring loop detectors, it was found that waves propagated through queued traffic like a random walk with predictable statistical variation. There was no observed dependency of wave speed on flow. As such, these waves neither focused nor fanned outward and shocks arose only at the interfaces between free-flowing traffic and the back of queues. Although these traffic features may have long been suspected, actual observations of this kind have hitherto not been documented. Also of note, the shocks separating queued and unqueued traffic sometimes exhibited unexpectedly long transitions between these two states. Finally, some observations presented here corroborate earlier reports that, in unqueued traffic, vehicle velocity is insensitive to flows and that forward-moving changes in traffic states therefore travel with vehicles. Taken together, these findings suggest that certain rather simple models suffice for describing traffic on homogeneous freeway segments; brief discussion of this is offered in Section 5.     

A structural equations analysis of commuters' activity and travel patterns

An exploratory analysis of commuters' activity and travel patterns was carried out using activity-based travel survey data collected in the Washington, DC metropolitan area to investigate and estimate relationships among socio-demographics, activity participation, and travel behavior. Structural equations modeling methodology was adopted to determine the structural relationships among commuters' demographics, activity patterns, trip generation, and trip chaining information. Three types of structural equations model systems were estimated: one that models relationships between travel and activity participation, another that captures trade-offs between in-home and out-of-home activity durations, and a third that models the generation of complex work trip chains. The model estimation results show that strong relationships do exist among commuters' socio-demographic characteristics, activity engagement information, and travel behavior. The finding that significant trade-offs exist between in-home and out-of-home activity participation is noteworthy in the context of in-home vs. out-of-home substitution effects. Virtually all of the results obtained in this paper corroborate earlier findings reported in the literature regarding relationships among time use, activity participation, and travel. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Integrating natural and socio-economic science in coastal management

The future more sustainable management of coastal resources is an important policy goal for all governments of countries with coastlines. Coastal areas are under intense environmental change pressure with extensive feedback effects between the natural systems and the human systems. It could be argued that there is just one jointly determined and coevolving system that needs to be studied and managed. Understanding the interactions between the coastal zone and environmental change cannot be achieved by observational studies alone. Modelling of key environmental and socio-economic processes is a vital tool, required to buttress coastal management institutions and practice. Three overlapping procedural stages can be identified in the coastal resource assessment process. The scoping and auditing stage, implemented via a ‘pressure–state–impact–response’ framework, details, among other thing, problems, system boundaries and value conflicts. The framework is itself based on a conceptual model, which lays stress on functional value diversity and the links between ecosystem processes, functions and outputs of goods and services which are deemed ‘valuable’ by society. The two subsequent stages are integrated modelling, combining natural and social science methodologies, and evaluation of management options and related gains and losses. An overview of a research project, which utilised the pressure–state–impacts–response (P–S–I–R) framework and supporting concepts and methods, is presented in the last section of the paper, together with some generic ‘lessons’ for interdisciplinary research.     

A note on the solution of water wave scattering problem involving small deformation on a porous channel-bed

The solution of water wave scattering problem involving small deformation on a porous bed in a channel, where the upper surface is bounded above by an infinitely extent rigid horizontal surface, is studied here within the framework of linearized water wave theory. In such a situation, there exists only one mode of waves propagating on the porous surface. A simplified perturbation analysis, involving a small parameter ε ( ? 1), which measures the smallness of the deformation, is employed to reduce the governing Boundary Value Problem (BVP) to a simpler BVP for the first-order correction of the potential function. The first-order potential function and, hence, the first-order reflection and transmission coefficients are obtained by the method based on Fourier transform technique as well as Green’s integral theorem with the introduction of appropriate Green’s function. Two special examples of bottom deformation: the exponentially damped deformation and the sinusoidal ripple bed, are considered to validate the results. For the particular example of a patch of sinusoidal ripples, the resonant interaction between the bed and the upper surface of the fluid is attained in the neighborhood of a singularity, when the ripples wavenumbers of the bottom deformation become approximately twice the components of the incident field wavenumber along the positive x-direction. Also, the main advantage of the present study is that the results for the values of reflection and transmission coefficients are found to satisfy the energy-balance relation almost accurately.     

Terminal investment timing decisions in a competitive setting with uncertainty using a real option approach

This paper uses a real option approach to analyze terminal investment timing decisions for situations in which a port faces competition from its rivals in an uncertain market. We propose a network model to describe carriers’ cargo routing decisions and competition among rival ports. We then transform this model into a multicommodity flow problem and use the column generation algorithm to solve it. After obtaining a port’s possible future annual revenues and the potential net present value (NPV) for its terminal construction project through the network model, we adopt the expanded NPV rule and transform the investment timing decision into an optimal stopping problem. A least squares Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is proposed to find the investing probabilities for future years. The proposed models are applied to a steel cargo terminal investment case in the Port of Bengbu in Anhui province of China. The impacts on the investing probability and the expanded NPV of changes in the demand volatility, the initial investment and the port discharging rate are analyzed to provide managerial insights for port managers.     

探查水下矿物资源的AUV动力控制系统开发

Valuable mineral resources are widely distributed throughout the seabed. autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are preferable to remotely-operated vehicles (ROVs) when probing for such mineral resources as the extensive exploration area makes it difficult to maintain contact with operators. AUVs depend on batteries, so their power consumption should be reduced to extend exploration time. Power for conventional marine instrument systems is incorporated in their waterproof sealing. External intermittent control of this power source until termination of exploration is challenging due to limitations imposed by the underwater environment. Thus, the AUV must have a power control system that can improve performance and maximize use of battery capacity. The authors developed such a power control system with a three-step algorithm. It automatically detects underwater operational states and can limit power, effectively decreasing power consumption by about 15%.