潜行水世界

当世界游泳锦标赛于上海举行得如火如荼之际,我们将空间转移,把选手从游泳赛馆抓出来,叫她把车子的挡风玻璃当作起跳台,潜进最新2011年款的XKR那敞篷下的车厢。没错,一如以往,这车其实没啥空间可供潜泳——典型的两座敞篷车,后座如果并非视为纯装饰性,     

VirMaLab — atelier virtuel de maintenance: un outil d’aide à la décision pour l’optimisation des politiques de maintenance

This article deals with a generic approach called VirMaLab (virtual maintenance laboratory) for reliabilitybased maintenance modeling for complex systems (with multi-components and multi-states). Based on the probabilistic graphical models formalism (also known as Bayesian networks), this stochastic approach takes into account both the degradation process of the considered system (an original semi-Markovian model is proposed) and maintenance strategies (from diagnosis factors to all kinds of maintenance actions). For complete decision support tools, cost parameters should also be considered (maintenance actions, unavailability of the system, running, etc.). In this article, two applications of this approach to rail maintenance are introduced. The first one focuses on the optimization of the compromise refurbishment/repairing of central part of the RER A line. The second one focuses on the comparison and evaluation of various maintenance strategies in the modernization of the command control systems of Paris metro lines.     

Accuracy of nonlinear finite element collapse predictions for submarine pressure hulls with and without artificial corrosion damage

Nonlinear finite element (FE) collapse pressure predictions are compared to experimental results for submarine pressure hull test specimens with and without artificial corrosion and tested to collapse under external hydrostatic pressure. The accuracy of FE models, and their sensitivity to modeling and solution procedures, are investigated by comparing FE simulations of the experiments using two different model generators and three solvers. The standard FE methodology includes the use of quadrilateral shell elements, nonlinear mapping of measured geometric imperfections, and quasi-static incremental analyses including nonlinear material and geometry. The FE models are found to be accurate to approximately 11%, with 95% confidence, regardless of the model generator and solver that is used. Collapse pressure predictions for identical FE models obtained using each of the three solvers agree within 2.8%, indicating that the choice of FE solver does not significantly affect the predicted collapse pressure. The FE predictions are found to be more accurate for corroded than for undamaged models, and neglecting the shell eccentricity that arises due to one-sided shell thinning is found to significantly decrease the resulting accuracy of the FE model.     

Modeling the choice continuum: an integrated model of residential location,auto ownership,bicycle ownership,and commute tour mode choice decisions

The integrated modeling of land use and transportation choices involves analyzing a continuum of choices that characterize people’s lifestyles across temporal scales. This includes long-term choices such as residential and work location choices that affect land-use, medium-term choices such as vehicle ownership, and short-term choices such as travel mode choice that affect travel demand. Prior research in this area has been limited by the complexities associated with the development of integrated model systems that combine the long-, medium- and short-term choices into a unified analytical framework. This paper presents an integrated simultaneous multi-dimensional choice model of residential location, auto ownership, bicycle ownership, and commute tour mode choices using a mixed multidimensional choice modeling methodology. Model estimation results using the San Francisco Bay Area highlight a series of interdependencies among the multi-dimensional choice processes. The interdependencies include: (1) self-selection effects due to observed and unobserved factors, where households locate based on lifestyle and mobility preferences, (2) endogeneity effects, where any one choice dimension is not exogenous to another, but is endogenous to the system as a whole, (3) correlated error structures, where common unobserved factors significantly and simultaneously impact multiple choice dimensions, and (4) unobserved heterogeneity, where decision-makers show significant variation in sensitivity to explanatory variables due to unobserved factors. From a policy standpoint, to be able to forecast the “true” causal influence of activity-travel environment changes on residential location, auto/bicycle ownership, and commute mode choices, it is necessary to capture the above-identified interdependencies by jointly modeling the multiple choice dimensions in an integrated framework.     

An empirical analysis of children’s after school out-of-home activity-location engagement patterns and time allocation

Children are an often overlooked and understudied population group, whose travel needs are responsible for a significant number of trips made by a household. In addition, children’s travel and activity participation during the post-school period have direct implication for adults’ activity-travel patterns. A better understanding of children’s after school activity-travel patterns and the linkages between parents and children’s activity-travel needs is necessary for accurate prediction and forecasting of activity-based travel demand modeling systems. In this paper, data from the 2002 Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics is used to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the post-school out-of-home activity-location engagement patterns of children aged 5–17 years. Specifically, this research effort utilizes a multinomial logit model to analyze children’s post-school location patterns, and employs a multiple discrete–continuous extreme value model to study the propensity of children to participate in, and allocate time to, multiple activity episode purpose-location types during the after-school period. The results show that a wide variety of demographic, attitudinal, environmental, and others’ activity-travel pattern characteristics impact children’s after school activity engagement patterns.     

A comparative study of a hybrid Logit–Fratar and neural network models for trip distribution: case of the city of Isfahan

This paper introduces a new procedure to forecast the future O/D demand. It is a hybrid of logit and Fratar model. The hybrid model has the long run, policy sensitive, characteristic of a logit model, calibrated at sector‐level with little/no zero O/D cells. This feature, joint with a Fratar‐type operation at zonal level within a sector, gives a better performance to this model than either of the two types of the models alone. The performance of the hybrid model is contrasted with a neural network model, and shows encouraging results in a real case. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimation of multinomial probit-based unordered response choice models

The likelihood functions of multinomial probit (MNP)-based choice models entail the evaluation of analytically-intractable integrals. As a result, such models are usually estimated using maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) techniques. Unfortunately, for many practical situations, the computational cost to ensure good asymptotic MSL estimator properties can be prohibitive and practically infeasible as the number of dimensions of integration rises. In this paper, we introduce a maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimation approach for MNP models that can be applied using simple optimization software for likelihood estimation. It also represents a conceptually and pedagogically simpler procedure relative to simulation techniques, and has the advantage of substantial computational time efficiency relative to the MSL approach. The paper provides a “blueprint” for the MACML estimation for a wide variety of MNP models.     

Long marine shafting alignment and optimization considering propeller hydrodynamic force in wake field北大核心CSCD

[目的]针对计入螺旋桨水动力的舰船轴系校中计算,传统方法通常容易忽略船体伴流场的影响,使得螺旋桨水动力计算的结果与真实值之间存在较大偏差,从而导致轴系校中精度下降。[方法]以某舰船长轴系为对象,建立桨-轴-船一体化有限元模型及其伴流场流域模型,利用CFD数值仿真的叠模方法计算螺旋桨水动力;采用流固耦合法将流体计算结果作用于螺旋桨表面,进行轴系校中计算,并得到螺旋桨水动力对轴系整体挠曲线及各轴承状态参数的影响规律。在此基础上,引入多目标优化算法开展轴系多目标优化校中,来解决轴系末端四套轴承间载荷差值过大的问题。[结果]考虑螺旋桨水动力后,轴系尾部挠度变化减小,越靠近螺旋桨处的轴承其载荷所受影响越大,载荷值随进速系数的增大而减小;对比多目标优化前后的轴系校中状态,轴系各轴承之间的载荷差值明显减小,轴系运行状态得到改善。[结论]所提方法提高了计入螺旋桨水动力的轴系校中计算精度,可为轴系校中质量的提升提供参考。