Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.     

A multiobjective chance constrained programming model for supplier selection under uncertainty

Risk management is an inherent part of supplier selection. While companies are enjoying the benefits of outsourcing, risks brought by this practice should be taken into account in the process of decision making. This paper presents a multiobjective stochastic sequential supplier allocation model to help in supplier selection under uncertainty. Demand for products, capacities at suppliers as well as transportation and other variable costs are the main sources of uncertainty and are modeled using probability distributions. Disruptions are exogenous events and the model provides proactive mitigation strategies against disruptions by assigning backup suppliers who can be used in case of a default at a primary supplier. When there is no disruption, the model’s solution is an optimal supplier order assignment, considering operational risks.     

Analysis of the environmental benefits of a motorcycle idling stop policy at urban intersections

In an attempt to reduce CO₂ emissions from motorized transport, the Taiwanese government introduced an idling stop policy for vehicles in early 2007. This paper seeks to quantify the environmental benefits of the policy based on a stated preference analysis. Motorcyclists were surveyed at urban intersections in Taiwan, to identify the amount of time they would be willing to turn off their engines while waiting at traffic lights (the WTO). A contingent valuation framework based on stated preference questions was designed to determine the WTO. Results obtained from the Spike model showed that the average motorcyclist’s WTO is 82 s. In another analysis, in which other variables were taken into consideration, such as the possibility that the policy will be enacted as legislation, the expected WTO increased to 101 s. In both cases, an idling stop policy would have positive environmental effects, reducing gasoline usage by 1021 L per hour and reducing CO₂ emissions by 0.56 metric tons per hour at the intersection studied during peak periods.     

Managing passenger behavioral intention: an integrated framework for service quality,satisfaction, perceived value,and switching barriers

This paper seeks to improve our understanding of passengers’ behavioral intention by proposing an integrated framework from the attitudinal perspective. According to the literature in marketing research, we establish a causal relationship model that considers “service quality-satisfaction-behavioral intentions” paradigm, perceived value theory, and switching barrier theory. Exploring passengers’ behavioral intention from satisfaction and perceived value help to understand how passengers are attracted by the company, while switching barriers assist in realizing how passengers are “locked” into a relationship with the current company. Furthermore, in order to capture the nature of service quality, we adopt a hierarchical factor structure which serves service quality as the higher-order factor. In this study, coach industry is selected as our research subject. The empirical results, as hypothesized, show that all causal relationships are statistically significant, and perceived value us the most important predictor of satisfaction and passengers’ behavioral intention. In conclusion, the managerial implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Determination of interfacial heat flux of stainless steel solidification on copper substrate during the first 0.2 s

Interfacial heat transfer is a key issue in many solidification processes. In the paper, a novel experimental apparatus has been designed and on this basis, the instantaneous interfacial heat transfer between molten steel or solidified shell and copper substrate during the first 0.2 s has been studied. The investigated parameters include melt superheat, substrate temperature and surface roughness. The results show that the peak value of the interfacial heat flux in the first stage of liquid/solid contact increases with melt superheat and changes slightly with substrate temperature and surface roughness. The interfacial heat flux in the stage of solid/solid contact has a similar trend of slow decrease in most conditions.     

Human and bicycle detection system using range sensor

This paper presents a full-scale solution to the detection of the traffic data using laser device. Range images, gathered by a particular laser camera, are used in the multi-threshold segmentation. The multi-threshold segmentation is based on the height of the moving objects. In order to get the precise height of the moving objects, mapping of the original terrain is performed on the first step. On each layer, the clustering algorithm called iteration-self organizing data analysis techniques algorithm (ISODATA) is conducted afterwards. Kalman filtering technique is applied to recognize and track the moving objects. Extensive experiments show that these algorithms are effective in object recognition and tracking, as well as robust in the applications.     

Looper-tension <Emphasis Type="Italic">H</Emphasis><Subscript>∞</Subscript> control for hot strip finishing mills

The development of an innovative H _∞ controller for looper and tension control in hot strip finishing mills is traced based on approximately linearized model. This solution has been considered thanks to its well-known robustness and simplicity characteristics concerning disturbances’ attenuation. The controller is designed based on an optimal problem with linear matrix inequality (LMI) constraints, and the problem is solved by the mincx function of Matlab LMI Toolbox. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed controller compared with conventional ones.     

Numerical simulation of macrosegregation during steel ingot solidification using continuum model

A continuum model is adopted to study the macrosegregation phenomena during solidification of large steel ingots. Evolution of temperature, melt velocity, and compositional concentration field during a 22 t steel ingot solidification are illustrated by using the finite volume method. Numerical results of temperature distribution are validated by experiments. The influence of local permeability relates to the friction that the melt experienced in mushy region is investigated. It is shown that the continuum model is able to predict the temperature field, and the variation of permeability obviously affects the melt flowing behavior and the final compositional distribution.