Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.     

Analysis of the capabilities of a two-stage turbocharging system to fulfil the US2007 anti-pollution directive for heavy duty diesel engines

This article presents a two-stage turbocharged heavy-duty diesel (HDD) engine designed to fulfil the US2007 anti-pollution directive. This directive imposes very restrictive limits on the NOx and particle emissions of HDD engines. In this work, the possibility of combining particle traps in the exhaust line to reduce soot emissions with very high EGR rates to reduce NOx emissions is considered. This new generation engine implements two-stage turbocharging in order to improve the bsfc when the engine is working on steady conditions as well as to optimize the engine transient response. After carrying out the tests, the results were analyzed and the engine settings were adjusted to maximise its behaviour and minimise pollutant emissions. NOx and soot emission peaks were also analyzed at engine transient conditions in order to keep them under certain levels, and thus maintain the overall pollutant emissions to a level that is as low as possible. In summary, a double-stage turbocharging configuration can greatly improve engine driveability (between 23% and 36% depending on engine speed), while reducing NOx emissions during transient evolution without increasing opacity peaks beyond the stated limits.     

Spatial variability of the barotropic M2 constituent tidal current over the Rías Baixas Galician shelf (NW Spain)

Using current meters and systematically repeated vessel mounted ADCP data legs, we describe the role of the semidiurnal and diurnal constituents in the tidal currents and investigate the mesoscale variability of the M₂ tidal currents field along three cross-shelf legs over the Galician shelf. We found that the estimated values of the semi-major axes of the main semidiurnal tidal constituents are closely related to those obtained in previous research and that the tidal currents are predominantly semidiurnal. Amplitudes of the M₂ and S₂ semi-major axes constituents are comparable, and important fortnightly variability should thus be expected in the amplitude of the semidiurnal tidal currents. Vertical profiles of the semi-major axes of the main tidal constituents reveal that, in the absence of stratification, and far from the bottom frictional effects, the tidal currents are mostly barotropic. Over the slope, the tidal ellipses tilt from a north–south orientation toward the northeast–southwest direction and, as we go further into the shelf, their amplitude is increased, a feature that is reasonably explained by the transition from the dynamics of a Poincaré wave offshore to the dynamics of a northward alongshore propagating Kelvin wave over the shelf. The Ría de Vigo exerts a notable influence over the tidal currents, acting as an extension of the shelf and introducing a meridional variation in the orientation of the ellipses from the alongshore direction in the southern straight coast toward the northeast–southwest direction at the latitude of the Rías. Finally, the spatial fitting methods we tried have proved to be successful in VMADCP data detiding in this region.     

国外机车制造业的现状与发展趋势概述

本文以国际知名企业为代表,简要介绍了国外铁道机车制造业的现状与发展趋势。     

A multiobjective chance constrained programming model for supplier selection under uncertainty

Risk management is an inherent part of supplier selection. While companies are enjoying the benefits of outsourcing, risks brought by this practice should be taken into account in the process of decision making. This paper presents a multiobjective stochastic sequential supplier allocation model to help in supplier selection under uncertainty. Demand for products, capacities at suppliers as well as transportation and other variable costs are the main sources of uncertainty and are modeled using probability distributions. Disruptions are exogenous events and the model provides proactive mitigation strategies against disruptions by assigning backup suppliers who can be used in case of a default at a primary supplier. When there is no disruption, the model’s solution is an optimal supplier order assignment, considering operational risks.     

���зֲ�����Ϣ��ģ��

熵最大化方法被广泛应用于交通规划，为交通需求预测模型提供了理论依据.本文使用信息论中的熵概念描述居民出行分布，并根据最大信息熵理论提出了基于原点矩典型特征量约束条件下的出行分布模型，详细阐述了模型中各个参数的实际含义，该模型是一个普适性模型，其具体形式决定于最高阶原点矩阶数的取值，此值对模型精度及参数标定难易程度有重要影响.为确定模型参数，提出了实用的参数标定方法.由于模型中原点矩的最高阶数对模型精度有较大影响，为找到两者之间的关系，利用长春市出行调查数据研究了四种出行方式分别时应于五种原点矩最高阶数的模型拟合情况.因文中所建立的模型是一系列模型，为比较其描述问题的优劣差异，按照最大信息熵原理给出了确定系统分布的熵方法，并运用该方法对前述模型进行了比较.调查数据的验证结果表明，出行分布的信息熵模型可以正确地描述出行分布规律，熵方法可以简单有效地评价不同模型对同一问题描述的优劣差异.本文提出的熵模型和熵方法对城市交通规划具有指导意义.