A generalized multiple durations proportional hazard model with an application to activity behavior during the evening work-to-home commute

The model developed in this paper generalizes (in the context of multiple exit states from a duration spell) extant competing risk methods which tie the exit state of duration very tightly with the length of duration. In the current formulation, the exit state is modeled explicitly and jointly with duration models for each potential exit state. The model developed here, however, is much broader in its applicability than only to the competing risk situation; it is applicable to multiple durations arising from multiple entrance states, multiple exit states, or a combination of entrance and exit states. Multiple entrance states occur frequently in many situations, but have received little attention in the literature. Explicit consideration of the entrance state is important, even in single or multiple competing risk models in order to accommodate the sample selection in duration based on the no-entry/entry (to the duration spell) outcome. The generalized multiple durations model developed in the paper is applied to an empirical analysis of activity behavior during the return home from work.     

The Influence of the Suspension System on Motorcycle Weave-mode Oscillations

The vertical motions of a large motorcycle on its tyres and suspension system are analysed, and the possibility of one of the natural frequencies being close to that of the lateral oscillation, the weave mode, is demonstrated. Interactions between the vertical and lateral modes, and the implications for motorcycle design and development are discussed.     

Shallow water processes govern system-wide phytoplankton bloom dynamics: A modeling study

A pseudo-two-dimensional numerical model of estuarine phytoplankton growth and consumption, vertical turbulent mixing, and idealized cross-estuary transport was developed and applied to South San Francisco Bay. This estuary has two bathymetrically distinct habitat types (deep channel, shallow shoal) and associated differences in local net rates of phytoplankton growth and consumption, as well as differences in the water column's tendency to stratify. Because many physical and biological time scales relevant to algal population dynamics decrease with decreasing depth, process rates can be especially fast in the shallow water. We used the model to explore the potential significance of hydrodynamic connectivity between a channel and shoal and whether lateral transport can allow physical or biological processes (e.g. stratification, benthic grazing, light attenuation) in one sub-region to control phytoplankton biomass and bloom development in the adjacent sub-region. Model results for South San Francisco Bay suggest that lateral transport from a productive shoal can result in phytoplankton biomass accumulation in an adjacent deep, unproductive channel. The model further suggests that turbidity and benthic grazing in the shoal can control the occurrence of a bloom system-wide; whereas, turbidity, benthic grazing, and vertical density stratification in the channel are likely to only control local bloom occurrence or modify system-wide bloom magnitude. Measurements from a related field program are generally consistent with model-derived conclusions.     

Ship underwater noise assessment by the acoustic analogy,part III: measurements versus numerical predictions on a full-scale ship

The acoustic analogy represents a powerful and versatile approach, able to numerically predict the noise generated by a body moving in a fluid. It is widely used to provide essential indications about the aeroacoustic behavior of aircraft and helicopters (even at a design stage) and, eventually, to pursue effective strategies aimed at desirable reduction and/or control of noise. Nevertheless, applications in the area of hydroacoustics and in the prediction of ship underwater noise are very rare. In this paper, the potential of the acoustic analogy is directly tested on a large ferry, for which a measurement campaign at sea was performed. In spite of the complexity of the tested configuration [the ship mounts two contracted and loaded tip (CLT) propellers located ahead of two rudders, and its hull is characterized by a rather elongated skeg] and the many variables not taken into account in the numerical simulation (such as the contribution from machinery noise and the probable occurrence of tip vortex cavitation), the agreement between the measured and computed noise spectra is quite satisfactory. The analysis suggests many interesting features of the ship hydroacoustic field: the dominant role played by nonlinear sources far from the body and the relevance of scattering effects from the hull surface. Furthermore, the scattered pressure seems to contribute to alter the frequency content of the resulting signatures with respect to the blade passage frequencies. Finally, an overview of future developments and applications of this numerical approach for marine/maritime problems is presented.     

Design analysis and comparison between standard and rotary porting systems for IC engine

Many porting systems for internal combustion engines have been tried and tested over the years, however the basic spring actuated poppet valve system has prevailed over the last century. In the goal to lower engine output parasitic losses, a simple rotary valve porting system design is proposed and analyzed. The proposed design concept takes into consideration and combines all the prominent advantages of many ealier mutlitiple design variations over the past century. The inherent primary advantage of such a rotary porting system is the elimination of reciprocating components, thus lowering vibration, and removal of highly stiff springs which contribute to considerable system power loss. Comparable sized 3-D representations of both systems are constructed in CAD (Computer Aided Design) software in order to run mechanical and fluid simulations to validate the efficiency advantage of a rotary valve porting system. Using Pro/Engineer Mechanism Dynamics module, the minimum torque required to actuate both systems at 2000 rpm and 3000 rpm is determined. Fluid simulations are performed using a commercial software CFDesign V10. Volumetric flow rates are compared during the intake stroke as well as turbulence intensity factors which characterizes a systems ability to properly mix the Air/Fuel mixture and the combustion efficiency. Some possible improvement on the rotary geometry is suggested.     

Theoretical and experimental analysis of a CNG cylinder rack connection to a bus roof

From our perspective, a global technology development should be focused on resolving the issues of environmental impact and conservation of available natural energy resources. New technological solutions and alternative fuels, such as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), have increasingly more application for modern engines and vehicles. If we take into account the situation in city transport, where primarily vehicles with diesel engines are used, a strategic proposal is to begin by retrofitting these into bi-fuel or dedicated Natural Gas Vehicles (NGVs). This paper analyzes the retrofit of a diesel bus into dedicated NGV. To confirm the safety of the vehicle in city transport, we addressed the problem of mounting a gas rack with CNG cylinders on the roof of a retrofitted city bus, according to UN ECE Regulation No. 110. This assembly is the most critical part of the retrofitted bus because of the concentration of stress due to increased mass and the application of a specific installation for supply of CNG from the cylinders to the engine. These regulations must be met in all parts of the vehicle, but we only focused on those areas affected by the retrofit to NGV.     

疯访马岩松

马岩松,耶鲁大学硕士毕业生,曾在伦敦的扎哈·哈迪德建筑事务所及纽约埃森曼建筑事务所工作,2004年回到中国,并创办了自己的建筑事务所MAD,现已成为中国年轻的明星建筑师。他曾因负责设计加拿大的一座摩天大楼,而成为中国第一位获得国际设计大奖的建筑师。     

机械电子技术在未来铁道车辆中的应用与发展(待续)

全面介绍了机械电子技术在未来铁道车辆特别是悬挂系统、牵引系统和制动系统中的应用和发展。     

房山线在北京市区接驳点的选择

北京市区至房山方向快速轨道交通项目是北京市近期建设项目之一。就线路的市区接驳点提出几个方案 ,并从工程量、换乘方式、资源共享、对客流吸引力的方面进行比较 ,提出建设性意见。     

道德与海员职业--论海员培训中的伦理学教育以及道德决定的策略

引言在对海员的职业培训中 ,有关如何作出符合伦理道德的决定的培训也应当包括其中。当我们在对他们进行传统的如轮机、航海、人员管理以及通讯等培训时 ,不要忘记 ,教给他们有关道德和道德思维的基础知识同样重要。在这个竞争激烈、全球一体的商业世界中 ,我们必须承认这样一句格言 :成功的商人必为有德者。所以 ,对海员的培训 ,既应当教给他们有关伦理道德的历史 ,还应进行具体的案例学习 ,更重要的是 ,应通过有关范例的讨论和学习 ,使他们掌握进行道德决定的模式和方法 ,并指明解决问题的方向。对此 ,位于缅因州的国际道德研究院的Ｒｕｓ…