Determinants of motor vehicle crash fatalities using Bayesian model selection methods

Motor vehicle crashes continue to result in large numbers of fatalities each year and represent the leading cause of death for young persons. In 2006, for example, there were over 42,700 fatalities associated with these crashes. Understanding the causes of these crashes and methods to reduce them continues to be of great interest to economists, public health officials, and policy makers. We present in this paper statistical models using a rich set of panel data covering the period 1980 to 2007 by state and the District of Columbia. Our choice of variables is based on an extensive literature highlighting the importance of policy, safety, demographic, and economic determinants of fatality rates.     

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作为智能交通系统的一部分,在电子信息版显示的电子交通标识,由于能够为驾驶员提供清晰、准确且易于辨识的交通信息,在世界各地得到了日益广泛的应用。本文对韩国首尔市动态交通控制系统中的电子交通标识进行评价和设计。对之前研究中设计的部分标识改进,并在实际某路段的可变信息板显示试验。此外,通过部分驾驶员对这些交通标识的辨识进行分析,对不同方案进行评价,为确定最终的标识提供参考。结果表明,现有欧洲设计和韩国设计的表示交通事故的标志辨识正确率较低（分别为10%和43.5%）;表示拥堵和交通事件的标志辨识正确率在45%至55%间;欧洲设计的雪天警告标志的辨识正确率为17.5%,韩国设计的雪天警告标志相对易于辨识（正确率75.5%）。     

Book reviews

Innovation, organizational capabilities, and environmental values combine to determine institutional change for a major marine port. This conceptual framework is applied to the case of dredged material management for the Port of New York and New Jersey. During the century under review, the institutional setting has changed significantly with: (1) environmental considerations moving from nearly irrelevant to central: (2) the number of interests and organizations increasing; and (3) the decision processes becoming far more complex. Ultimately, the new institutional setting influences organizations and individual decisions. As a result of the changes, the practice of dredged material disposal in ocean waters has been limited based on the level of bioaccumulation of selected contaminants. In response to institutional changes, ports requiring deepened channels must rapidly innovate to meet new environmental obligations for material disposal in order to enhance organizational capabilities necessary to maintain competitive advantages in maritime commerce. Successful marine ports will anticipate and meet new societal expectations related to the environment as a condition for continued legitimacy. Collectively these changes imply that ports have moved beyond a carefully circumscribed mission of transportation and economic development to that of a prominent user of coastal space with broad obligations to the public.     

Comment

A paper for the ‘Management of Risks in Engineering’ seminar on ‘Risks, Vulnerabilities and Exposures in Transport (air, space, sea and land)’ organised by the Association Internationale pour I ‘Etude de I ‘Economie de I’ Assurance, Munich, October 21–22, 2002.     

Book review

Onshore Planning for Offshore Oil—Lessons from Scotland by Pamela L. Baldwin and Malcolm F. Baldwin The Conservation Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1975     

Federal‐state revenue sharing and resource management under outer continental shelf lands act section 8(g)

Abstract

Section 8(g) was added to the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA) in 1978. It mandated sharing of the revenues from tracts that included oil and gas pools underlying the federal‐state boundary 3 miles offshore. Revenues were to be split based on agreements negotiated by the secretary of Interior and the relevant coastal state governor or “fair and equitable”; divisions made by the federal district courts. Only one agreement was concluded. Texas and Louisiana sued to force distribution of their shares of $6.1 billion in 8(g) funds held in escrow. In 1986 Congress divided the escrowed 8(g) revenues approximately 27 percent to the adjacent states and 73 percent to the federal government and legislated the same split for all future 8(g) revenues. This article examines the complex issues that section 8(g), as amended, raises for the management of federal and state submerged lands. Cooperative federal‐state approaches to implementing amended section 8(g) are reviewed. Section 8(g)'s broader implications as the only federal‐state ocean resource, revenue‐sharing mechanism currently in place also are addressed.     

Urban sports anglers and Lake Michigan fishery policies

Abstract

Over the past few years an unusually intense struggle over the future of the Lake Michigan fishery has occurred in the coastal communities of Racine and Kenosha. This struggle has engaged participants on the local, state, and national levels in the debate over the fishery as it is potentially impacted by the presence of environmental toxins, the rising cost of fish stocking and management, and conflicting user group demands. We describe three cases where urban sports anglers, with the assistance of university based social scientists, participated in state and city public policy decisions. After discussing this research and its policy implications, we propose a general public participation paradigm termed the Reciprocal Development Model.     

Union rivalry and crew reform in shipping: A United States—Australia comparison

The national-flag fleets of most of the traditional martitime nations have, in virtually every case, been in decline in the 1980s and 1990s, despite the continued growth of ocean shipping. They have declined in terms of numbers of vessels and numbers of sea-going jobs, although not necessarily in terms of cargo carried. However, a number of those nations have responded to the changed technological and competitive conditions with some success by attempting to adjust crewing and work practices on vessels at sea. Neither the USA nor Australia has been in the forefront of such change. However, considerably more progress has been made in modernizing crewing practices and work rules in the Australian-flag fleet than in the US-flag fleet. There are a variety of reasons for this, inluding government policy. However, it is our argument that one of the principal reasons the US fleet lags behind the Australian fleet in the adoption of modern crewing practices and work rules is the much greater degree of union rivalry in the US shipping industry. In fact, while the degree of fragmentation and rivalry among unions in the Australian flag fleet has declined dramatically since 1980, their US cousins have continued, and in some ways expanded, their pattern of fratricidal behavior. First we shall discuss some of the technological and competitive imperatives that are driving human resource management practices in shipping and the crewing and industrial relations adjustments that are being made around the world to adjust to them. Then we shall indicate how the Australian and US fleets have responded to these challenges. This will be followed by a discussion of unionism in the Australian and US maritime industrics as it has devloped in the last two decades of the twentieth century. Finally, we shall draw conclusions about the impact of different patterns of unionization.     

Transportania as gulliver might have seen it

It is an honour to be asked to speak at this, the Silver Jubilee of the International Symposia in 1984, in the presence of a number who, unlike myself, were present at the first symposium at the General Motors Research Laboratories in 1959 - Gordon Newell, Martin Beckmann and, foremost of all, Robert Herman, whose work is to be recognized next week by the award of an Honorary Degree at the University of Karlsruhe. Because it is such an honour to be asked, I had no hesitation in accepting Professor Volmuller's invitation, several months ago - to address you with a causerie on a subject of my choice.