Review of empirical and semi-empirical Y factor solutions for cracked welded tubular joints

The practical use of fracture mechanics has been established for use on large turbine and electric generator rotor components used in the atomic power generation and the aircraft industry. Application areas in the offshore industry have also been identified. Fracture mechanics is currently used at the design stage of offshore facilities. It provides the basis for fatigue life prediction, steel selection and tolerance setting on allowable weld imperfections. Fracture mechanics is also used during the operational stage of a structure to make important decisions on inspection scheduling and repair strategies and as a tool for establishing limits on operational conditions. Linear elastic fracture mechanics relies on the use of the stress intensity factor concept. The stress intensity factor is a very important fracture mechanics parameter. Therefore, the accuracy of any fracture mechanics model for the prediction of fatigue crack growth in offshore structures for example will depend very much on the accuracy of the stress intensity factor solution used. Several empirical and semi-empirical solutions have been developed over the years with varying degrees of accuracy. This paper presents a review of some of these methods and attempts to assess their accuracy in predicting Y factors for welded tubular joints by comparing predicted results with experimental data obtained from fatigue tests conducted on large scale welded tubular joints. The experimental results were conducted under simulated service conditions, using a jack-up offshore standard load history (JOSH). A comparison between the experimental and predicted results shows that there may be other factors, which influence fatigue crack growth under variable amplitude conditions. Some of these factors have been identified and discussed in this paper.     

Updating of Travel Behavior Model Parameters and Estimation of Vehicle Trip Chain Based on Plate Scanning

This article proposes a maximum-likelihood method to update travel behavior model parameters and estimate vehicle trip chain based on plate scanning. The information from plate scanning consists of the vehicle passing time and sequence of scanned vehicles along a series of plate scanning locations (sensor locations installed on road network). The article adopts the hierarchical travel behavior decision model, in which the upper tier is an activity pattern generation model, and the lower tier is a destination and route choice model. The activity pattern is an individual profile of daily performed activities. To obtain reliable estimation results, the sensor location schemes for predicting trip chaining are proposed. The maximum-likelihood estimation problem based on plate scanning is formulated to update model parameters. This problem is solved by the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The model and algorithm are then tested with simulated plate scanning data in a modified Sioux Falls network. The results illustrate the efficiency of the model and its potential for an application to large and complex network cases.     

Optical device for measuring the injectors opening in common rail systems

Since the needle displacement exerts a fundamental influence on the operation of Common Rail injection systems, accurate measurements of the control piston position can be crucial for a more thorough analysis of the behaviour of injectors, in particular when multiple injections are employed. Eddy current sensors have traditionally been used in lab activities to measure the control piston position inside injectors; apart from the high cost, the scientific literature clearly shows their inadequacy, which is mainly due to the presence of electromagnetic disturbance: the current pulse, which controls the opening of the injector, generates electromagnetic fields which strongly affect the acquisition of data. Many attempts have recently been made either to solve the interference occurring during such measurements or to propose alternative displacement transducers whose operation is not influenced by electromagnetic interference. In this paper, a new device for measuring the injector opening is proposed: it is an optical transducer characterized both by simple and very cheap construction and by a reliable physical principle for measuring the control piston lift. The reliability of the proposed sensor is assessed by a thorough experimental campaign and by comparing the experimental results with the numerical predictions achieved by a Common Rail injector model. Since the assembly of the optical sensor does not affect the injector operation, it can efficiently be used both for experimental tests and for on-board diagnosis and monitoring of the injector operation.     

Risk-based maintenance and rehabilitation decisions for transportation infrastructure networks

A method for determining optimal risk-based maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) policies for transportation infrastructure is presented. The proposed policies guarantee a certain performance level across the network under a predefined level of risk. The long-term model is formulated in the Markov Decision Process framework with risk-averse actions and transitional probabilities describing the uncertainty in the deterioration process. The well known Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is used as the measure of risk. The steady-state risk-averse M&R policies are modeled assuming no budget restriction. To address the short-term resource allocation problem, two linear programming models are presented to generate network-level polices with different objectives. While the proposed methodology is general and can be used with any performance indicator, pavement roughness is used for numerical studies and an analytical expression for computing CVaR is derived.     

Method of estimating human error probabilities in construction for structural reliability analysis based on analytic hierarchy process and failure likelihood index method

Partial safety factors must be evaluated precisely for the given target reliability index to ensure the certain level of structural reliability due to uncertain factors. The current studies of partial safety factors do not consider human error in construction for structural reliability. A mathematically model should be improved to simulate the partial safety coefficient concerned uncertainty factors which concern the effect of human error in construction. We employ the contaminated distribution to obtain the realistic mean value and standard variance of variable of structural parameters which coexist with random error human error. The reasonable partial safety coefficient can be calculated based on the realistic value of structural parameters concerned the effects of random error and gross error.     

Public sector comparators for UK PFI roads: inside the black box

A public sector comparator (PSC) represents the hypothetical, risk-adjusted cost of a project—such as a road scheme—when that project is financed, owned and implemented by government. A PSC is commonly used in public procurement decision-making as a yardstick against which private investment proposals are evaluated. Using original material released by the UK Highways Agency for the first time, the author recreated the PSCs used for the evaluation of the first eight road projects to be promoted under the UK’s private finance initiative (PFI). Alternative assumptions regarding project risks were modelled using different levels of optimism-bias uplift, and the impact on value-for-money of using different discount rates was evaluated. Public sector comparators have attracted considerable attention in the literature as they retain a pivotal role in the policy decision to use—or not use—private finance. However the fact that their detail is usually kept confidential by public sector procuring agencies—because of commercial sensitivities—has restricted informed discussion and open debate. Now the architecture of these comparators is laid bare for critical examination. It has generally been assumed that any reduction in the discount rate used in PSC calculations will favour conventional procurement over PFI-type contracting arrangements. The research reported in this paper demonstrates that the relationship between the discount rate and the attractiveness of using private finance is not as simple as has been assumed, and the outcome in terms of value-for-money is not as predictable as has previously been reported.     

Social and political implications of new transport technologies

The mechanism of change in society is discussed in terms of power and interest groups, and some of the past changes in transport technology are examined in terms of the degree of threat posed to the established order and the interest groups benefiting from change. On the basis of such a power/benefit model, three of the new transport technologies which have been proposed — “guideway”, “dial‐a‐bus” and “network cab”, are discussed as to their likely social and political acceptability.     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain: a rejoinder

In our critique for the Buses White Paper, we argued that ‘competition for licences’ could achieve most of the benefits of competition without the major disadvantages of ‘competition on the road’. In response to the comments of Beesley and Glaister, we explain how comprehensive franchising of good and bad routes alike would encourage effective competition, whilst providing conditions for the transparent continuation of cross‐subsidy where that was the choice of the local authority in question. We correct their misrepresentation of our arguments on the desirability of cross‐subsidy and on the case for minibuses, and explain why we believe that such cost savings as are achieved will be mainly at the expense of staff or customer service. Finally, we restate the case for believing that a unified planned timetable will provide a better service for a given level of resources than will uncoordinated competitive services.     

Marine Protected Area Management Effectiveness: Progress and Lessons in the Philippines

Quantifying progress in management of marine protected areas (MPAs) is crucial to marine conservation and fisheries management in the Philippines. This study compiles data on the status, occurrence, and management gaps of MPAs through coordination with multiple organizations supporting and guiding MPAs in the Philippines. MPA management effectiveness was measured using a MPA Rating System. Since 2002 the modal MPA rating levels increased from level 1 (initiated) to level 4 (sustained) in 2008/9. This upward trend is attributed to factors that promoted both the establishment and improved management of MPAs. Analysis indicated that: (1) most MPAs struggle with budgetary constraints or lack of sustainable financing and (2) overall the MPAs are being maintained and progressing with notable improvement in management despite a range of difficulties encountered during the implementation process. For MPAs in the Visayan Region for which biophysical data were available, the MPA Rating System was used to assess the effectiveness of local government capacity building on MPA coral reef health. Our results suggest that MPAs with higher ratings are likely to have better reef health conditions.     

Economic appraisal of European transport projects: The state-of-the-art revisited

Substantial investment has been made at national and European level in transport infrastructure over the past 50 years and is likely to continue in the future. The need to appraise transport projects in economic and social terms has developed alongside this in both scope and complexity. The state-of-the-art in the economic appraisal of transport projects is reviewed, progress is assessed and future challenges are identified. The review addresses the general framework, treatment of major impacts, presentation of outputs and issues such as uncertainty. It draws on national practice in Western European countries, which varies substantially reflecting a range of cultural and economic differences. Some points of commonality exist and the principle of monetizing direct transport impacts is generally accepted. Progress has been made towards the measurement of environmental impacts, but the assessment of the wider impacts remains under-developed. Increased sophistication and complexity has brought increasing data and presentation requirements, where computerized decision support methods have potential. Many challenges exist for the future of appraisal and the review is concluded with a discussion of some key issues. At the heart of these is the continuing debate over the relative roles of national and European government in decision-making and resource allocation.