Time-series model for vehicle speeds

This paper presents a time-series model for the spot speeds of vehicles on a road section. Based on time-series analysis techniques, the model incorporates information on the extent of existing dependency between the speeds of successive vehicles. The model for the data is chosen while relying heavily on the data, and thus emphasis is given to their special characteristics. The advantages of using the model are examined with regard to the relative speed of two successive vehicles along a road section. The results are compared with those obtained by using a model of independent observations; fewer errors are obtained with the time-series model. Therefore, it is concluded that the sequence of speed observations contains valuable information which should be incorporated into speed models.     

Information needs of the continuing urban transportation planning process

Urban transportation is identified as a functional element in the broader context of urban facilities and services. From this point of view, the relative merits of separate information systems for transportation planning and general urban planning, as contrasted to unified systems for all urban management functions, are discussed. The overriding need to make the most effective use of urban resources argues strongly for the unification of urban information systems to the greatest possible extent consistent with the special data requirements of various functional programs. The need to identify and correlate data items for very small areal units and to keep current records of the constantly shifting patterns of social and economic activities in urban areas present difficult, but not insurmountable technical problems. However, the most serious barrier to the development and implementation of comprehensive urban information systems is concluded to be institutional, rather than technical, in nature.     

Further evidence on the temporal stability of disaggregate travel demand models

Current evidence on the transferability of disaggregate travel demand models is inconclusive. Adding to this body of research, the present analysis focuses upon the temporal characteristics of work trip behavior in the San Francisco Bay Area. Using before and after data sets associated with the BART Impact Travel Study, multinomial logit models of work trip modal choice are estimated. The results indicate that the general form and the coefficient estimates of a pre BART model are transferable in time. Moreover, when updated to reflect BART's presence, the model's predictive success and its implied elasticity measures are generally accurate, relative to those implied by reestimating the entire model on post BART data. Finally, as economic theory would predict, elasticity measures of the service related variables were found to increase over time.     

Port managment development—a strategy for the provision of a training capability in developing countries

The absence of formal career-development programmes and the apparent low priority given to the development of human resources in the ports of developing countries has led to a severe shortage of suitably qualified and experienced managers. At the centre of this problem lies the formidable barriers to the establishment of a local training capability to meet the diverse and often specialized needs of this industry. This paper examines the nature and scale of the management-training requirements of the ports of developing countries. Further, it briefly describes the background to UNCTAD's role in the field of management training and outlines the objectives of its training strategy for the 1980s. An important component of this strategy is the 'Improving port performance project which is designed to prepare structured learning materials using audio-visual techniques and is proposed as one solution to establishing a local training capability in developing countries.     

Aesthetic and ecological disharmonies of highways

This paper discusses the aesthetic and ecological effects of highways. Little is known about the subject at the present time, and thus this treatment cannot be considered in any sense definitive.Part I offers a definition of aesthetic quality and considers its relevance to highway planning. It is noted that, although the principles of rural freeway design (curvilinear alignments, variable medians, etc.) generally accord with the aesthetic character of rural areas, freeways are infinitely more difficult to integrate aesthetically into urban areas. Comparisons are made in this regard among basic types of freeways.Part II notes that the effect of man's presence on the earth's ecology has resulted in new systems and processes to which man is now subject. Highways, as works of man, affect him and his environment in ways which are known only imperfectly. Nevertheless, there are steps which can be taken to minimize the more obvious forms of damage to the environment which can result from highway building.Part III discusses procedures for incorporating aesthetic and ecological considerations into highway planning. No method yet proposed is in itself sufficient, and none leads to a decision on an objective basis. A generally acceptable method must await further research. In the meantime, every effort must be made to assure full and fair consideration of environmental effects on an ad hoc basis.     

The design of liner shipping serives: the problem of feeder services versus multi-port-calls

In this paper, the authors outline the structure of liner shipping systems with special emphasis on the question of whether feeder services are superior in economic terms to the more traditional and commonly-used multi-port-calling system. They describe the theoretical advantages of the former over the latter, and develop a model by which the optimal conditions both operate in may be determined. This model is then applied to a real situation to ascertain whether the theory works in practice. They conclude that the shuuttle/feeder system is worthwhile only in exceptional circumstances when specific route characteristics—low trade density; hinterland generated cargo; inland position of port; and heavy congestion—coexist. Despite the expense of multi-port-calling, it remains the most practical solution to the thin trade problem.