Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings

This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be observed. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased temperatures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may furthermore be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Climate change related shifts in weather patterns might also cause infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety by increasing accident frequency but decreasing severity. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport.     

Severity of injury resulting from pedestrian–vehicle crashes: What can we learn from examining the built environment?

This paper examines the impact of personal and environmental characteristics on severity of injuries sustained in pedestrian–vehicle crashes using a generalized ordered probit model. The data covers 2000–2004 of pedestrian–vehicle crashes taken from police incident reports for Baltimore City and supplemented with local land use, urban form and transportation information specific to the individual crash locations. The results on personal and behavioral variables confirm previous findings. Women pedestrians involved in crashes tend to be injured less frequently than their male counterparts; children have an increased likelihood of sustaining injuries and older persons are more likely to be fatally injured. Pedestrians who cross against the traffic signal, are not in a crosswalk and are involved in a crash after dark are associated with greater injury risk. Of the built environment policy variables of interest, transit access and greater pedestrian connectivity, such as central city areas, are significant and negatively associated with injury severity. These results suggest that the environmental conditions should be given more scrutiny and be an important consideration when evaluating and planning for pedestrian safety.     

Modelling and Analysis of Turning Motion of a Subsurface Mapping AUV with Split-Hull Design

There is much need for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for inspection and mapping purposes. Most conventional AUVs use torpedo-shaped single-rigid hull, b...     

Method for obtaining the wheel–rail contact location and its application to the normal problem calculation through ‘CONTACT’

This work presents a robust methodology for calculating inter-penetration areas between railway wheel and rail surfaces, the profiles of which are defined by a series of points. The method allows general three-dimensional displacements of the wheelset to be considered, and its characteristics make it especially suitable for dynamic simulations where the wheel–rail contact is assumed to be flexible. The technique is based on the discretisation of the geometries of the surfaces in contact, considering the wheel as a set of truncated cones and the rail as points. By means of this approach, it is possible to reduce the problem to the calculation of the intersections between cones and lines, the solution for which has a closed-form expression. The method has been used in conjunction with the CONTACT algorithm in order to solve the static normal contact problem when the lateral displacement of the wheelset, its yaw angle and the vertical force applied in the wheelset centroid are prescribed. The results consist of smooth functions when the dependent coordinates are represented as a function of the independent ones, lacking the jump discontinuities that are present when a rigid contact model is adopted. Example results are shown and assessed for the normal contact problem for different lateral and yaw positions of the wheelset on the track.     

Modelling and control of a new differential steering concept

This paper presents a new steer-by-wire concept using an all-wheel drive vehicle layout with in-wheel motors while completely omitting the application of any dedicated steering device. Steering is based on the so-called differential steering principle which generates the necessary steering moment about the kingpins by a traction force difference between left and right sides of the vehicle. In order to investigate the behaviour of the vehicle and to design the underlying control algorithms, a planar vehicle model is presented, where the vehicle is described as constrained non-holonomic system requiring a special treatment. A state feedback linear controller for controlling of the lateral dynamics of the vehicle at higher speeds and a simple PI angle controller for low-speed manoeuvring are developed. The resulting behaviour of the system is investigated by various simulation experiments demonstrating a comparable steering performance of the new steering concept as that of conventional passenger cars.     

Crew resource management training in the maritime industry: a literature review

The study is based on a literature review of recent empirical research on crew resource management (CRM) training in the maritime industry, organised around what non-technical skills to learn and how. The review indicates that existing work is dominated by individualistic theories of learning with less focus on learning as a social process. Five main categories of skills that need to be trained are identified: assertiveness, decision-making, communication, situation awareness and team coordination. We argue that it is necessary to operationalise these broad concepts further, emphasising the work context and crew-specific needs. The review also shows that a combination of classroom lectures and simulator-based exercises is commonly used in maritime education and training in these skills. The learning effect seems to be suffering from training programmes that are exported ‘as is’ from aviation and not adjusted to the maritime domain or to operation-specific needs. This paper examines maritime crew resource management training from a social learning perspective, involving the view that learning is a context bound, social process that might take place in communities of practice (CoP). A CoP is a group (e.g. a crew) wherein members share an activity and learn from each other. It is argued that CRM training programmes will benefit from including a social learning perspective. Factors that enable the assessment of teams are discussed, and it is argued that the training should be tailored to existing crews, emphasising a learning environment as close to reality as possible.     

Assessing a maritime service website prototype in a ship bridge simulator: navigators’ experiences and perceptions of novel e-Navigation solutions

The aim of this study was to assess proof of concept and usability of a maritime service website prototype in a full-mission ship bridge simulator through Swedish mariners’ experiences and perceptions. This test was part of the European Commission’s EfficienSea2 project for e-navigation. The prototype was intended as an aid to existing standard systems and methodologies for planning, executing and monitoring voyages. The study began with 5 days of simulator trials focused on today’s standard practices. This served as a baseline to compare to subsequent 4 days of simulator trials testing the prototype. For data collection, observations, video footage, interviews, and eye tracking were used. Data analysis included breaking apart the qualitative data to capture the perceptions of the participants, and a preliminary analysis of eye-tracking data as a complement. The results suggested that the prototype could be more suitable for a route planning stage, that the participants were familiar with similar existing solutions from other manufacturers, and that the contents of the tool would be most beneficial if integrated within the Electronic Chart Display and Information Systems (ECDIS). There is a pressing need for the novel solutions to be user needs-driven, integrated with the existing technologies, and standardized across the domain, and these processes must go hand-in-hand with accounting for all involved stakeholders, procedures, regulations, and training, as this will alter the course of shipping.     

Investigating the capacity of continuous household travel surveys in capturing the temporal rhythms of travel demand

Transportation - Continuous household travel surveys have been identified as a potential replacement for traditional one-off cross-sectional surveys. Many regions around the world have either...     

Investigating the influence of assigning a higher priority to scheduling work and school activities in the activity-based models on the simulated travel/activity patterns

Transportation - Two dynamic, gap-based activity scheduling models are tested by applying a short-run microsimulation approach to replicate workers’ travel/activity patterns over a 1-week...