A basic mathematical model for evacuation problems in urban areas

Real life situations like floods, hurricanes or chemical accidents may cause the evacuation of a certain area to rescue the affected population. To enable a fast and a safe evacuation a basic mixed-integer evacuation model has been developed that provides a reorganization of the traffic routing of a certain area for the case of an evacuation. This basic problem of evacuation minimizes the evacuation-time while prohibiting conflicts within intersections. Our evacuation model is a dynamic network flow problem with additional variables for the number and direction of used lanes and with additional complicating constraints.Because of the size of the time-expanded network, the computational effort required by standard software is already very high for tiny instances. To deal with realistic instances we propose a heuristic approach.     

A dichotomous choice survey for quantifying option and non-use values of bus services in Korea

The total economic value for a transportation service consists of use, option, and non-use value. The use benefit is based on a traveler’s willingness to pay for usual consumption of the service. The optional value, on the other hand, is related to the possible use of the service for trips not yet anticipated or currently accommodated by other travel modes. The non-use value, however, is derived from the intrinsic merit of the service, even though a trip-maker never actually or potentially depends on the mode. A closed-ended contingent valuation method is considered for the quantification of the option and non-use values. A survey of single- and double-bounded dichotomous choices is conducted with a case study of South Korean bus operations. A logistic regression model and a survival analysis for the single- and double-bounded approaches, respectively, are applied. The estimation result is examined according to the statistical property required and the behavioral validity expected. In particular, three issues from the output are discussed. First, the results help to show the preferable framework between single- and double-bounded surveys for addressing an individual’s option and non-use values. Second, the differences in the absolute values of option and non-use values are compared. Thirdly, the relationship between trip-makers’ willingness to pay and the level of service of their primary travel modes are investigated. In conclusion, the summary of research and the possibilities for future studies are given.     

Modeling intermodal equilibrium for bimodal transportation system design problems in a linear monocentric city

This paper investigates the intermodal equilibrium, road toll pricing, and bus system design issues in a congested highway corridor with two alternative modes - auto and bus - which share the same roadway along this corridor. On the basis of an in-depth analysis of the demand and supply sides of the bimodal transportation system, the mode choice equilibrium of travelers along the continuum corridor is first presented and formulated as an equivalent variational inequality problem. The solution properties of the bimodal continuum equilibrium formulation are analytically explored. Two models, which account for different infrastructure/system regulatory regimes (public and private), are then proposed. In the public regulatory model, the road toll location and charge level are simultaneously optimized together with the bus service fare and frequency. In the private regulatory model, the fare and frequency of bus services, which are operated by a profit-driven private operator, are optimized for exogenously given toll pricing schemes. Finally, an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed models. Sensitivity analysis of residential/household distribution along the corridor is carried out together with a comparison of four different toll pricing schemes (no toll, first best, distance based, and location based). Insightful findings are reported on the interrelationships among modal competition, market regulatory regimes, toll pricing schemes, and urban configurations as well as their implications in practice.     

The return on investment for taxi companies transitioning to electric vehicles

We study whether taxi companies can simultaneously save petroleum and money by transitioning to electric vehicles. We propose a process to compute the return on investment of transitioning a taxi corporation’s fleet to electric vehicles. We use Bayesian data analysis to infer the revenue changes associated with the transition. We do not make any assumptions about the vehicles’ mobility patterns; instead, we use a time-series of GPS coordinates of the company’s existing petroleum-based vehicles to derive our conclusions. As a case study, we apply our process to a major taxi corporation, Yellow Cab San Francisco (YCSF). Using current prices, we find that transitioning their fleet to battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles is profitable for the company. Furthermore, given that gasoline prices in San Francisco are only 5.4 % higher than the rest of the United States, but electricity prices are 75 % higher; taxi companies with similar practices and mobility patterns in other cities are likely to profit more than YCSF by transitioning to electric vehicles.     

On the convergence of Bell's logit assignment formulation

In Bell M.G.H. (1995. Transportation Research B 29, 287–295), a new logit assignment formulation was developed, which considered all possible paths in the network while still retaining the absence of a need for path enumeration. In his formulation, it presumes that the sum of a geometric series of the weights matrix always converges and hence can be computed as the inversion of a matrix. In this paper, we investigate the convergence properties of this geometric series by means of an eigensystem interpretation which states that the series converges if and only if all the eigenvalues associated with the weights matrix fall into the unit circle in a complex plane. It is found that the geometric series converges unconditionally for acyclic networks, but not necessarily does so for general networks.     

Queue-dependent vehicle dispatching with options and optimal fleet size

A queue-dependent vehicle dispatching rule, with options to use special vehicles (rented, reserve, shared etc.) for relieving long waiting lines, is considered. The transportation system under consideration has one source terminal and a fleet of N regular vehicles. Passengers are assumed to arrive individually at the source terminal according to a Poisson process. An efficient recursive algorithm is derived to analyse the performance of the system. An average cost criterion is used to determine the firm's fleet size and dispatching strategy for a simpler system. This is a variant of a “Random vehicle dispatching with options” rule proposed by Zuckerman and Tapiero (1980).     

Extension of Newell's dispatching policy to the case of sensitive demand

This paper has extended Newell's dispatching policy to the case of sensitive demand which is characterized by a linear mode split model with two major factors, wait time and transit fare. Three objective functions both with and without vehicle capacity constraint are analyzed, including profit maximization, maximization of a combination of net user benefit and operator profit, and maximization of net user benefit subject to a deficit constraint. Closed-form solutions associated with various system parameters are obtained. It is shown that under sensitive demand conditions the optimal dispatching rate is approximately proportional to the square root of the total demand rate, if vehicle size is not binding and it is strictly proportional to the total demand rate, if vehicle size is binding.     

Trip characteristics of selected israeli cities

Over the last 15 years travel patterns were investigated in 15 urban settlements in Israel. The results indicate an unusual combination of high trip generation by dwelling unit and low motorization rates.The diversity of socio-economic characteristics of population groups, as well as that of city size distribution, are reflected both in motorization rates and in trip generation.     

Short‐term travel time forecasts for transport information system in hong kong

In this paper, a case study is carried out in Hong Kong for demonstration of the Transport Information System (TIS) prototype. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is presented to forecast the short‐term travel times that can be served as a predicted travel time database for the TIS in Hong Kong. In the TFS, a stochastic deviation coefficient is incorporated to simulate the minute‐by‐minute fluctuation of traffic flows within the peak hour period. The purposes of the case study are: 1) to show the applicability of the TFS for larger‐scale road network; and 2) to illustrate the short‐term forecasting of path travel times in practice. The results of the case study show that the TFS can be applied to real network effectively. The predicted travel times are compared with the observed travel times on the selected paths for an OD pair. The results show that the observed path travel times fall in the 90% confidence interval of the predicted path travel times.