Application of time series techniques for forecasting truck traffic attracted by the Bombay metropolitan region

Knowledge of future traffic flow is an essential input in the planning, implementation and development of a transportation system. It also helps in its operation, management and control. Time series analysis techniques have been extensively adopted for this purpose in the fields of economics, social sciences and in other fields of technology. An attempt has been made in this study to apply the techniques of time series analysis to goods traffic, particularly truck traffic. Four predominant corridors, N.H.3, N.H.4, N.H.8 and Lal Bahadur Shastri Road (L.B. S. Rd.), accounting for majority of truck movement in the Bombay Metropolitan Region (BMR), have been considered for modeling. Raw data was processed initially, to obtain an insight into the structure of time series. Ten candidate models of the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family are investigated to represent each of the four corridors. Models finally proposed, to represent each of the four corridors have been selected based on Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) and Maximum Likelihood Rule (MLR) criteria. Models ARIMA (2, 1, 0), ARMA (1.0), ARMA (1, 1) and ARIMA (1, 1, 0) are proposed for N.H.3, N.H.4, N.H.8 and L.B.S. Rd. respectively, based on significant weekly periodicity.     

Union rivalry and crew reform in shipping: A United States—Australia comparison

The national-flag fleets of most of the traditional martitime nations have, in virtually every case, been in decline in the 1980s and 1990s, despite the continued growth of ocean shipping. They have declined in terms of numbers of vessels and numbers of sea-going jobs, although not necessarily in terms of cargo carried. However, a number of those nations have responded to the changed technological and competitive conditions with some success by attempting to adjust crewing and work practices on vessels at sea. Neither the USA nor Australia has been in the forefront of such change. However, considerably more progress has been made in modernizing crewing practices and work rules in the Australian-flag fleet than in the US-flag fleet. There are a variety of reasons for this, inluding government policy. However, it is our argument that one of the principal reasons the US fleet lags behind the Australian fleet in the adoption of modern crewing practices and work rules is the much greater degree of union rivalry in the US shipping industry. In fact, while the degree of fragmentation and rivalry among unions in the Australian flag fleet has declined dramatically since 1980, their US cousins have continued, and in some ways expanded, their pattern of fratricidal behavior. First we shall discuss some of the technological and competitive imperatives that are driving human resource management practices in shipping and the crewing and industrial relations adjustments that are being made around the world to adjust to them. Then we shall indicate how the Australian and US fleets have responded to these challenges. This will be followed by a discussion of unionism in the Australian and US maritime industrics as it has devloped in the last two decades of the twentieth century. Finally, we shall draw conclusions about the impact of different patterns of unionization.     

An AI-based approach for transit route system planning and design

We present an AI-based solution approach to the transit network design problem (TNDP). Past approaches fall into three categories: optimization formulations of idealized situations, heuristic approaches, or practical guidelines and ad hoc procedures reflecting the professional judgement and practical experience of transit planners. We discuss the sources of complexity of the TNDP as well as the shortcomings of the previous approaches. This discussion motivates the need for AI search techniques that implement the existing designer's knowledge and expertise to achieve better solutions efficiently. Then we propose a hybrid solution approach that incorporates the knowledge and expertise of transit network planners and implements efficient search techniques using AI tools, algorithmic procedures developed by others, and modules for tools implemented in conventional languages. The three major components of the solution approach are presented, namely, the lisp-implemented route generation design algorithm (RGA), the analysis procedure TRUST (Transit Route Analyst), and the route improvement algorithm (RIA). An example illustration is included.     

The morgantown PRT: It is still running at West Virginia University

It has been over fifteen years since the Morgantown PRT system went into passenger service. Its start was marked by cost overruns, high operating costs and poor reliability. However over time, these initial problems and difficulties have been overcome, and today the system provides an extremely important and reliable service that links downtown Morgantown with three campuses of West Virginia University. It is still running. This paper provides background on the development of the system and current operating characteristics of this famous transit demonstration project.     

A study of the dynamic response of submerged rectangular flat plates

The dynamic response of flat horizontal plates vibrating in air and under water has been investigated experimentally and analytically. The effect of the boundary conditions and the depth of submergence of the plates has been studied. Excellent agreement was obtained between the analytical solution and the experimental results. An approximate expression for the evaluation of the modal added masses for rectangular plates has been derived. This can be used to estimate the natural frequencies of plating constituting the internal structure within the cargo spaces in tankers and liquid cargo carriers.     

British Shipping and World Competition[1] revisited

The object of my book British Shipping and World Competitionwas to answer the question: 'Why has the tonnage of ships registered in the United Kingdom declined from over 45% of the world total in 1900 to about 16% of that total in 1960?'. There was never any normative element to this question, a point which has been much misunderstood. In answering the question, two different methodologies were used. Chapters II through VIII are industrial economic history, whereas Chapters IX through XIV are applied economics. When the two groups are thought of as siblings, not as Siamese twins, it can be seen that the first group has worn rather well, but that the applied economics chapters have a distinctly dated air. Most of this article is concerned with the applied economics chapters, where I try to examine what is said in the book in the light of my subsequent experience and thinking. There is one absolutely gross error in the material. Unfortunately, this is implicitly reflected in the Code of Conduct and in the EC Maritime Regulations. The original answer to the question has been rephrased in the article; I hope this will put to rest the idea that the question was normative in intent. The rephrasing does not alter the answer: the decline which needed to be accounted for can be explained solely in terms of internal constraints. The remainder was a 'natural' result of changing international patterns in resource allocation.     

The Static Stability of Articulated Commercial Vehicles

This review of the state of the art emphasizes recent results that have been obtained in extending conventionalanalysis techniques to the treatment of “Highway Trains”, that is, to heavy trucks that have multiple articulation points and employ suspensions with multiple axles. Equations of motion applicable to the equilibrium turning performances of articulated vehicles are examined with respect to using analysis techniques involving steering gains, understeer gradients, effective wheel-bases, handling diagrams, and critical speeds. These examinations provide the basis for in sights into simplified approaches for understanding the steady turning mechanics of articulated, multi-axle vehicles riding on pneumatic tires.     

Protectionism in practice

In the long debate about the UNCTAD Code, many opinions have been put forward about the consequences of cargo reservation. Some have been based on theory, whilist others have transposed behaviour patterns from other industries or other periods of time. Several countries, however, have been operating cargo reservation laws for sufficiently long to enable some initial observations to be made. This article outlines recent experience in Brazil.