Short-term Hourly Traffic Forecasts using Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census

The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression (NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station. Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region.     

Neuro-Fuzzy Control of a Tracked Vehicle Featuring Semi-Active Electro-Rheological Suspension Units

This paper presents vibration control of a tracked vehicle installed with electro-rheological suspension units (ERSU). As a first step, an in-arm type ERSU is designed, and its spring and damping characteristics are evaluated with respect to the intensity of electric fields. Subsequently, a 16 degree-of-freedom model for a tracked vehicle equipped with the proposed ERSU is established followed by the formulation of a neuro-fuzzy controller. This controller takes account for both ride quality and steering stability by adopting a weighting parameter between two performance requirements. The parameter is appropriately determined by employing a fuzzy algorithm associated with two fuzzy variables: the vertical speed of the body and the rotational angular speed of the wheel. Control performances to isolate unwanted vibration from bump and random road excitations are evaluated through computer simulations. In addition, maximum speed of the vehicle with 6 Watt power absorption is investigated with respect to the road roughness.     

Two-Dimensional Motion of Vehicles Damaged due to Collision

This paper deals with two-dimensional motion analysis of vehicles damaged due to collision. Various parts of vehicles are damaged due to collision in general. The effects of the damage in vehicle body and wheels on the vehicle motions are investigated. The center of gravity of the vehicle and the polar moment of inertia are changed by the deformation of vehicle body. Furthermore, the geometrical relations of wheels like wheelbase, treads and steering angles may be changed by damage of the wheels. Thus the vehicle loses symmetry with respect to the vehicle axis. The four-wheel vehicle model is extended to take into account the vehicle damage due to collision. The motions of damaged vehicles are compared with those of undamaged vehicles. It is found that vehicle damages have a significant influence on vehicle motion after impact.     

A conceptual and methdological framework for the generation of activity-travel patterns

This paper develops a conceptual framework for the generation of activity and travel patterns in the context of more general structures and presents an integrated model system as a step toward development of an improved travel demand forecasting model system. We propose a two-stage structure to model activity and travel behavior. The first stage, the stop generation and stop/auto allocation models, consists of the choices for the number of household maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos to household members. The second stage, the tour formation model, includes the choices for the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours for each individual, conditional on the choices in the first stage. Empirical results demonstrate that individual and household socio-demographics are important factors affecting the first stage choices, the generation of maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos among household members, and the second stage choices, the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Optimum design of tilting bogie frame in consideration of fatigue strength and weight

This paper addresses the use of finite-element (FE) analysis to calculate the fatigue strength of a bogie frame, for the development of tilting trains in Korea. A multi-body dynamic analysis was performed to extract the load condition by tilting on curves. Using the results of the multi-body dynamic analysis and the load scenario setout in the UIC standard, FE analysis was performed to obtain the stress distribution and to calculate the fatigue strength. An attempt was made to minimize the weight of the bogie frame using a back-propagation artificial neural network (ANN). The results of this study reveal that the stresses at some nodes are near the fatigue limit in the Goodman diagram and by using back-propagation ANN, the weight of the bogie frame could be reduced by 4.7%.     

REGULATION OF PRODUCTION OF PARATHYROID HORMONE－RELATED PEPTIDE （PTHrP） AND EXPRESSION OF ITS mRNA IN A HUMANLIVER－DERIVED CE

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Time-series model for vehicle speeds

This paper presents a time-series model for the spot speeds of vehicles on a road section. Based on time-series analysis techniques, the model incorporates information on the extent of existing dependency between the speeds of successive vehicles. The model for the data is chosen while relying heavily on the data, and thus emphasis is given to their special characteristics. The advantages of using the model are examined with regard to the relative speed of two successive vehicles along a road section. The results are compared with those obtained by using a model of independent observations; fewer errors are obtained with the time-series model. Therefore, it is concluded that the sequence of speed observations contains valuable information which should be incorporated into speed models.     

Further evidence on the temporal stability of disaggregate travel demand models

Current evidence on the transferability of disaggregate travel demand models is inconclusive. Adding to this body of research, the present analysis focuses upon the temporal characteristics of work trip behavior in the San Francisco Bay Area. Using before and after data sets associated with the BART Impact Travel Study, multinomial logit models of work trip modal choice are estimated. The results indicate that the general form and the coefficient estimates of a pre BART model are transferable in time. Moreover, when updated to reflect BART's presence, the model's predictive success and its implied elasticity measures are generally accurate, relative to those implied by reestimating the entire model on post BART data. Finally, as economic theory would predict, elasticity measures of the service related variables were found to increase over time.     

Global cutting-path optimization considering the minimum heat effect with microgenetic algorithms

This article considers microgenetic algorithms (GAs), which explore in a small population with a few genetic operators, for cutting-path optimization problems. The major difference between GAs and simple genetic algorithms (SGAs) is how to make a reproductive plan for an improved searching technique because of population choice. It is shown that GAs implementation reaches the near-optimal region much earlier than the SGAs approach, and the GAs give a better solution than simulated annealing (SA). The main objective was to determine what temperature distribution can be obtained from the solution of a travelling distributed heat source. The solution of the travelling heat source on nested raw plate provides information about the vertices of each nested part of the raw plate. From the fact that the initial temperature at a piercing point strongly depends on the heat flow which stems from the previous cutting contour, the temperature of all piercing points must be lower than the critical temperature after each cutting of the components of a part. The critical temperature is identified as the mechanical melting temperature of steels. A heuristic back-tracking method is introduced to find the near-optimum cutting path considering the minimum heat effect on deformation. The heuristic back-tracking method is incorporated with the GAs.