Modeling activity conflict resolution strategies using scheduling process data

Developments in activity scheduling process data have recently allowed for much improvement and validation of rule-based activity scheduling models. The use of actual scheduling process data allows for a potentially more realistic model in terms of how the travel episodes are actually derived. Since these types of models are simulations of the scheduling process, scheduling conflicts naturally arise in the creation of the final schedule. The handling of these scheduling conflicts is a critical component of all rule-based activity models. Many of these models rely on the concept of priority of the activities to resolve conflicts. However, recent research has shown that this is often not how conflicts are actually resolved. In order to more accurately model actual conflict resolution behavior, scheduling process data was used to estimate conflict resolution rules using decision trees. The use of a conflict resolution model allows the strategy chosen to depend on the attributes of the individual and the conflicting activities, rather than assuming a prior definition of precedence based on the activity types. The conflict resolution decision showed reasonable ability to predict the resolution strategy chosen in actual scheduling process survey data, and represents an important advance in developing a functional computational process model of activity scheduling.     

Modeling the structural relationships among short-distance travel amounts,perceptions, affections,and desires

Using structural equation modeling, the relationships among travel amounts, perceptions, affections, and desires across five short-distance (one-way trips of less than 100 miles) travel categories (overall, commute, work/school-related, entertainment/social/recreation, and personal vehicle) are examined. The models are estimated using data collected in 1998 from more than 1300 working commuters in the San Francisco Bay Area. A cross-model analysis reveals three robust relationships, namely: (1) myriad measures of travel amounts work together to affect perceptions; (2) perceptions are consistently important in shaping desires; and (3) affections have a positive relationship with desires. The second finding suggests that two individuals who travel the same objective amount may not have the same desire to reduce their travel: how much individuals perceive their travel to be is important. The third point argues that the degree to which travel is enjoyed is a key determinant of shaping desires to reduce travel: the more travel is enjoyed, the less the desire to reduce it.     

无损磁力检测仪的制造

据全俄铁路运输科学研究院1996年编的关于轮对轮箍轮缘的磁极-等离子强化工艺手册中称:当强化道宽度达到40 mm时,则硬化层深度为1.5～2 mm.在磁极-等离子强化区内其金属组织所发生的变化为:硬度为750 HV的马氏体组织深度约0.3 mm;硬度为580～660 HV的屈氏体-马氏体混合组织深度约0.3～0.9 mm;硬度为480～580 HV的屈氏体组织深度约0.9～1.3 mm;硬度为360～450 HV的索氏体组织深度约1.3～2.0 mm.     

提高电空制动机的可靠性

在机车车辆上采用电空制动机可以缩短制动距离,改善列车在制动过程中的动力作用.现有电空制动机的使用经验表明:其可靠性与现代要求相距甚远.其中原因之一是由于其控制件常常失灵导致电空制动机偏斜而引起不良后果.所以,为了保证列车运行安全,对电空制动机进行改进已成了特别迫切的任务.     

使用新型辅助变流器节能

新型辅助变流器(BNU)及其新结构设计可减轻有轨车辆辅助电源装置的质量.与传统的典型地铁车辆的辅助变流器相比,这种新辅助变流器的质量可减轻约50%,并且可大大降低能耗.通过采用中频隔离变压器和非焊接箱体可减轻质量,随之而来也扩展了BNU的功能.     

A generalized model of pelagic biogeochemistry for the global ocean ecosystem. Part II: Numerical simulations

This paper presents a global ocean implementation of a multi-component model of marine pelagic biogeochemistry coupled on-line with an ocean general circulation model forced with climatological surface fields (PELAgic biogeochemistry for Global Ocean Simulations, PELAGOS). The final objective is the inclusion of this model as a component in an Earth System model for climate studies. The pelagic model is based on a functional stoichiometric representation of marine biogeochemical cycles and allows simulating the dynamics of C, N, P, Si, O and Fe taking into account the variation of their elemental ratios in the functional groups. The model also includes a parameterization of variable chlorophyll/carbon ratio in phytoplankton, carrying chl as a prognostic variable. The first part of the paper analyzes the contribution of non-local advective–diffusive terms and local vertical processes to the simulated chl distributions. The comparison of the three experiments shows that the mean chl distribution at higher latitudes is largely determined by mixing processes, while vertical advection controls the distribution in the equatorial upwelling regions. Horizontal advective and diffusive processes are necessary mechanisms for the shape of chl distribution in the sub-tropical Pacific. In the second part, the results have been compared with existing datasets of satellite-derived chlorophyll, surface nutrients, estimates of phytoplankton community composition and primary production data. The agreement is reasonable both in terms of the spatial distribution of annual means and of the seasonal variability in different dynamical oceanographic regions. Results indicate that some of the model biases in chl and surface nutrients distributions can be related to deficiencies in the simulation of physical processes such as advection and mixing. Other discrepancies are attributed to inadequate parameterizations of phytoplankton functional groups. The model has skill in reproducing the overall distribution of large and small phytoplankton but tends to underestimate diatoms in the northern higher latitudes and overestimate nanophytoplankton with respect to picoautotrophs in oligotrophic regions. The performance of the model is discussed in the context of its use in climate studies and an approach for improving the parameterization of functional groups in deterministic models is outlined.     

2006年铁道养路机械展销会成果介绍

在卡卢加举行的第12届"2006年铁道线路机械"例行国际专业展销会上,100多家俄罗斯及世界各国的企业和组织展示出了在铁路轨道技术装备方面最新的研发成果。展览会用实物反映了在铁道线路运营方面的2个重要的发展方向,一是利用功能更多的机械采用先进的养路作业工艺;二是线路整体在科学技术进步方面有了进一步的发展。展览会向参加者和各方来宾介绍了各种现代化的高生产率机械、检查设备和线路诊断设备、机械化的工具、高效的技术研发成果等。     

A macroscopic theory of two-lane rural roads

A macroscopic theory for predicting the operation on two-lane, two-way roads is proposed. In this theory, the interaction between fast and slow vehicles obeys Newell’s kinematic wave theory of moving bottlenecks. Calibration is not required as all parameters are fully observable. Closed-form expressions for the capacity, average speed, percent time spent following and overtaking rates are proposed and the biases of current practice are identified. Comparisons between the proposed theory and empirical data are also included.     

Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models

Marine ecosystem models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and are being used to estimate the effects of future changes in the earth system with a view to informing important policy decisions. Despite their potential importance, far too little attention has been, and is generally, paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to real-world processes. With the increasing complexity of the models themselves comes an increasing complexity among model results. If we are to develop useful modelling tools for the marine environment we need to be able to understand and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the simulations. Analysing errors within highly multivariate model outputs, and relating them to even more complex and multivariate observational data, are not trivial tasks. Here we describe the application of a series of techniques, including a 2-stage self-organising map (SOM), non-parametric multivariate analysis, and error statistics, to a complex spatio-temporal model run for the period 1988–1989 in the Southern North Sea, coinciding with the North Sea Project which collected a wealth of observational data. We use model output, large spatio-temporally resolved data sets and a combination of methodologies (SOM, MDS, uncertainty metrics) to simplify the problem and to provide tractable information on model performance. The use of a SOM as a clustering tool allows us to simplify the dimensions of the problem while the use of MDS on independent data grouped according to the SOM classification allows us to validate the SOM. The combination of classification and uncertainty metrics allows us to pinpoint the variables and associated processes which require attention in each region. We recommend the use of this combination of techniques for simplifying complex comparisons of model outputs with real data, and analysis of error distributions.     

谐波对牵引变压器损耗的影响

根据一个牵引变压器的损耗,提出了谐波对绕组电阻的影响.对同心式和饼式线圈的变压器进行了分析.使用二维有限元计算软件"Flux2D"进行了多种仿真,并且将其结果与实际变压器测量值进行对比,提出一个简单的定律,由此可确定2种不同类型变压器电阻随频率的变化规律.