Analysis of factors that may be essential in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners

This research investigates factors that influence opinion in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners primarily from the perspective of aviation and technology professionals. Bayesian statistical inference and a two‐level fractional factorial survey are used to sample passengers' views on fully autonomous airliners. Eight trust, safety, and cost factors are incorporated into a vignette set in the future. Factors include automation levels, safety records, liability guarantees, airline integrity, and service disruptions. Dependent variables exist in five post‐vignette questions and essentially ask “Would you” or “Would you not” be willing to fly on a fully autonomous airliner? Sixteen versions of the vignette, each with unique trust, safety, and cost levels, present varying (unknown) degrees of influence to the survey respondents. For every demographic, the research shows a 99% statistically significant difference between the “prior” and “posterior” sampled population proportions willing to fly. The most significant positive influence involves integrity characteristics of the airline, while the most negative influence relates to life insurance liability guarantees. Research from 2003 suggested that this mode of travel would be acceptable to only 10.5% of respondents. When the 2003 research is used as a Bayesian prior probability, the resulting posterior probability for the demographics sampled can be modeled as a beta distribution, indicating 95% probability that the sampled proportion of the population willing to fly is between 33.2% and 36.4%. After adjusting for age and profession demographics to match the US population, the 95% probability bounds on the proportion willing to fly are 31.35% and 34.15%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

Use and perceptions of a real time passenger information system

The use of high-technology systems in the transport sector has increased steadily over recent years. This paper outlines the development of vehicle monitoring and control systems and their use in the public transport arena. The paper shows how one such system, that operated by Datatrak Ltd., has been adapted to provide a real time passenger information system for the RiverBus Partnership in London.

1 The RiverBus service described in this article ceased operation in August 1993. The collapse of the RiverBus Partnership followed the financial difficulties surrounding Olympia and York, developers of Canary Wharf in London Docklands.

Passenger use and perception of the system is evaluated, based on surveys of RiverBus users. This provides an evaluation of the system, and highlights the importance of introducing such systems based on user information needs and as part of the total marketing package.     

Active Roll Control for Passenger Cars

The development of a mathematical model of a limited bandwidth hydro-pneumatic suspension that is incorporated into a vehicle handling model is described. The combined model is used to evaluate a suitable control strategy for eliminating body roll during a cornering manoeuvre. The philosophy behind the roll control strategy has been to use feedback measurements of the body motions which do not compromise the ride control. A study of the influence of the position of the body motion feedback transducer on the effectiveness of the system to reduce the body roll is presented. Non-linear modelling of the suspension components for a 0.8g cornering manoeuvre has revealed performance limitations. Conclusions are drawn as to the effectiveness of the control scheme.     

Trip distribution for limited destinations: a case study for grocery shopping trips in the Netherlands

In this paper, we introduce a new trip distribution model for destinations that are not homogeneously distributed. The model is a gravity model in which the spatial configuration of destinations is incorporated in the modeling process. The performance was tested on a survey with reported grocery shopping trips in the Dutch city of Almelo. The results show that the new model outperforms the traditional gravity model. It is also superior to the intervening opportunities model, because the distribution can be described as a function of travel costs, without increasing the computational time. In this study, the distribution was described by a simple function of Euclidean distance, which provides a good fit to the survey data. The slope of the distribution is quite steep. This shows that most trips are made to nearby supermarkets. However, a significant fraction of trips, mainly made by car, still goes to supermarkets further away. We argue that modeling of these trips by the new method will improve traffic flow predictions.     

Equilibria of bilateral taxi–customer searching and meeting on networks

This paper proposes an equilibrium model to characterize the bilateral searching and meeting between customers and taxis on road networks. A taxi driver searches or waits for a customer by considering both the expected searching or waiting time cost and ride revenue, and a customer seeks a taxi ride to minimize full trip price. We suppose that the bilateral taxi–customer searching and meeting occurs anywhere in residential and commercial zones or at prescribed taxi stands, such as an airport or a railway station. We propose a meeting function to spell out the search and meeting frictions that arise endogenously as a result of the distinct spatial feature of the area and the taxi–customer moving decisions. With the proposed meeting function and the assumptions underlying taxi–customer search behaviors, the stationary competitive equilibrium achieved at fixed fare prices is determined when the demand of the customers matches the supply of taxis or there is market clearing at the prevailing searching and waiting times in every meeting location. We establish the existence of such an equilibrium by virtue of Brouwer’s fixed-point theorem and demonstrate its principal operational characteristics with a numerical example.     

A Multi-Spoke, Three Plane Tyre Model for Simulation of Transient Behaviour

Based on the multi-spoke, single-plane, steady-state tyre model, a transient multi-spoke, three-plane tyre model is presented. This model involves updating the states of all the spokes under consideration to t+dt from the corresponding states at t. Also, a spoke base, which has lateral and longitudinal flexibilities relative to wheel hub, is included. By adding two extra planes of spokes to the original one, the effect of tyre width is built into the model. The three planes are equally spaced across the width of the tyre. The interaction with the ground of the spokes on these three planes is used to represent that of tyre elements at different locations across the width. Analytical results show good qualitative agreement with published experimental data. This model can be used to illustrate transient tyre behaviour and in simulations in which a generic tyre will suffice.     

An examination of the determinants of day-to-day variability in individuals' urban travel behavior

Day-to-day variability in individuals' travel behavior (intrapersonal variability) has been recognized in conceptual discussions, yet the analysis and modeling of urban travel are typically based on a single day record of each individual's travel. This paper develops and examines hypotheses regarding the determinants of intrapersonal variability in urban travel behavior.Two general hypotheses are formulated to describe the effects of motivations for travel and related behavior and of travel and related constraints on intrapersonal variability in weekday urban travel behavior. Specific hypotheses concerning the effect of various sociodernographic characteristics on intrapersonal variability are derived from these general hypotheses. These specific hypotheses are tested empirically in the context of daily trip frequency using a five-day record of travel in Reading, England.The empirical results support the two general hypotheses. First, individuals who have fewer economic and role-related constraints have higher levels of intrapersonal variability in their daily trip frequency. Second, individuals who fulfil personal and household needs that do not require daily participation in out-of-home activities have higher levels of intrapersonal variability in their daily trip frequency.     

Overturning Stability of Three Wheeled Motorized Vehicles

Three wheeled motorized vehicles are a major mode of public transport in many countries. These vehicles are prone to overturning even during normal turning and obstacle avoidance maneuvers. This paper presents a parametric analysis of a mathematical model of the vehicle and evolves guidelines for improving the overturning stability in terms of vehicle geometry and suspension properties.

Differential equations governing the dynamic behavior of the vehicle are derived on the basis of a six degree of freedom model. The vehicle response to variations in steering, engine power and braking inputs is then numerically simulated. The effects of vehicle geometry and elasto-damping suspension coefficients on the vehicle stability are presented. The results indicate an optimum position of the center of gravity where the vehicle is most stable. While stiffer suspensions favour stability, there exists an optimum value of suspension damping for which the minimum wheel load is a maximum.