Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

Aggregating mobile object trajectories: cumulative time geographic density estimation for GPS data

We present new approaches that expand upon the time geographic density estimation (TGDE) framework previously employed to estimate potential path trees. In the past, TGDE metrics have identified possible locations an individual moving object may have passed between, given known origin and destination points. This paper utilizes a new form of TGDE to investigate taxicab GPS traces over a specified time horizon with position ‘gaps’. To this end, we propose a new extension to the TGDE framework, TGDE-C, which is used to determine the cumulative TGDE values for a group of GPS traces, at a given location. These metrics are applied to multiple taxis and allow for time of day analysis. Additionally, we combine these new extensions with existing TGDE metrics that allow us to determine how accessible individual or groups of vehicles are to urban opportunities.     

Non-linear utility functions in models of travel choice behavior

Models of individual choice behavior have been extensively developed and used in travel prediction during the last ten years. These models are generally formulated with utility functions that are linear in parameters. Theories of economics and psychology suggest that the true relationship between service variables and utility is non-linear. In this paper we demonstrate that non-linear transformations of time and cost variables produce statistically significant improvements in the model estimated, have a theoretically appealing interpretation, and lead to managerially important differences in policy evaluations. These results support the need to refine the specification of choice utility functions based on theoretical considerations and empirical research.     

主动控制避免铁道车辆蛇行失稳

为了避免铁道车辆蛇行失稳,提高运行速度,开发了可控机电减振器。通过实验台试验和数值仿真计算,验证了机电减振器的性能。     

Home-to-work commuting,urban form and potential energy savings: A local scale approach to regional statistics

The link between transport energy consumption and land use patterns has been the focus of a considerable amount of academic works over the past decades. While many empirical researches are backed up with solid statistical techniques, most of them do not fully consider the influence of scale underlying empirical quantitative investigations. Using fine-scale home-to-work commuting data for Wallonia (Belgium), this paper re-evaluates Breheny’s (1995) assertion that urban structure should hold the characteristics of major cities if substantial energy savings are to be achieved. A local scale approach highlights efficient settlements in terms of transport energy consumption not only within major towns, but also within remote rural areas. Furthermore, results suggest that influencing the urban form following local energy efficient examples rather than regional ones could also yield significant gains, without an extreme policy stance of re-urbanisation in major cities.     

An algorithm for finding reasonable paths in transit networks

In this paper, reasonable paths in transit networks are defined as possible paths that satisfy the acceptable time criterion and transfer‐walk criterion. A recursive algorithm for finding all of the reasonable paths in a transit network that does not involve a rapid increase in program run‐time with network size is presented. Realistic transit networks in Hong Kong and Guangzhou were selected as case studies of the different phases of the development of a trip planning system. Transport planning practitioners and potential users were invited to test the system to evaluate its performance. The results of the prototype evaluation were satisfactory, and the viability of the system as a useful tool for supporting decision‐making has been confirmed by the positive feedback that was obtained from survey questionnaires.     

Shipping control and the changing use of marine space

In this paper Professor Couper discusses the divisions of marine space as set out in the Revised Single Negotiating Text of UNCLOS III in relation to maritime accidents. This is followed by a contribution by Mr Burger on statistical material related to the incidence of marine accidents in North-West European waters. The third section of the paper by Captain S. Abdelgalil, is devoted to a technical discussion on traffic lanes in confined waters.     

Estimation of origin‐destination matrices for a multimodal public transit network

This paper presents a procedure for the estimation of origin‐destination (O‐D) matrices for a multimodal public transit network. The system consists of a number of favored public transit modes that are obtained from a modal split process in a traditional four‐step transportation model. The demand of each favored mode is assigned to the multimodal network, which is comprised of a set of connected links of different public transit modes. An entropy maximization procedure is proposed to simultaneously estimate the O‐D demand matrices of all favored modes, which are consistent with target data sets such as the boarding counts and line segment flows that are observed directly in the network. A case study of the Hong Kong multimodal transit network is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

An interpretation of inter-container port relationships from the demand perspective

Container ports serve as important conduits to facilitate the efficient flow of containerized cargo. As part of value-driven chain systems that intersect between hinterlands, efficiency gains that are generated within the container port will have a direct impact on the competitive advantage of its users and affect the economic potential of both the origin and destination hinterlands. As such, the paper proposes the usage of indifference analysis propounded in microeconomic theory as a useful means to examine inter-container port competition and complementarity. The framework presented can also be combined with Porter's 'Diamond' model in order for inter-container port demand relationships to be quantified, measured and analysed in an holistic manner. Apart from analysing inter-port relationships from the standpoint of container ports, the framework can also be used to analyse inter-port relationships from the perspective of other key players in the value-driven chain system and modified accordingly to incorporate various indicators that are deemed to be relevant to these parties.     

US Navy Studies on Alternative Fuel Sources and Power and Propulsion Methods for Surface Combatants and Amphibious Warfare Ships

The US Navy has been studying the technical and cost impacts associated with the availability and cost of fossil fuel contrasted with nuclear energy alternatives for surface combatants and amphibious warfare ships. Over the past 2 years these efforts have grown in maturity to examine the tactical and strategic implications of our Navy's dependence on fossil fuels from technical, economic, and military perspectives. This paper will present three major topics:

• ▪

  Background research on alternative energy sources.
• ▪

  A survey discussion of current and future power and propulsion system technologies.
• ▪

  An overview of principal Naval Sea Systems Command studies on the integration of alternative power and propulsion system technologies into notional surface combatants, submarines, and amphibious warfare ships.

Given the US Navy's dependence on fossil fuels and the expected increase in cost and reduced availability of fossil fuel, propulsion system investment decisions made today will have a profound impact on the future tactical and strategic roles of the US Navy surface fleet. This paper lays the foundation for providing robust and flexible technology decision opportunities for the Navy's future.