Modeling the structural relationships among short-distance travel amounts,perceptions, affections,and desires

Using structural equation modeling, the relationships among travel amounts, perceptions, affections, and desires across five short-distance (one-way trips of less than 100 miles) travel categories (overall, commute, work/school-related, entertainment/social/recreation, and personal vehicle) are examined. The models are estimated using data collected in 1998 from more than 1300 working commuters in the San Francisco Bay Area. A cross-model analysis reveals three robust relationships, namely: (1) myriad measures of travel amounts work together to affect perceptions; (2) perceptions are consistently important in shaping desires; and (3) affections have a positive relationship with desires. The second finding suggests that two individuals who travel the same objective amount may not have the same desire to reduce their travel: how much individuals perceive their travel to be is important. The third point argues that the degree to which travel is enjoyed is a key determinant of shaping desires to reduce travel: the more travel is enjoyed, the less the desire to reduce it.     

Simulation Approach to the Effect of the Ratio Changing Speed of a Metal V-Belt CVT on the Vehicle Response

In regard to the belt and pulley system of a metal V-belt CVT, the characteristics of the ratio changing speed is obtained by experiments. It is summarized in a practical and simple experimental equation. By using this equation a simulation model is developed to analyze the response of a vehicle with a metal V-belt CVT to a rapid pulley ratio change. The simulation results are in reasonable agreements with experimental results.     

Generation of cyclonic eddies in the Eastern Gotland Basin of the Baltic Sea following dense water inflows: numerical experiments

A sigma (σ)-coordinate ocean model by Blumberg and Mellor (POM) is applied to study the formation processes of mesoscale cyclones observed in the Eastern Gotland Basin following the dense water inflows. The initial conditions simulate a situation when the Arkona and Bornholm basins and partially the Slupsk Furrow are already filled with the inflow water of the North Sea origin, while the Eastern Gotland and Gdansk basins still contain the old water of pre-inflow stratification. Model runs with constant and time-dependent winds, changing the buoyancy forcing, grid geometry and bottom topography display the following. Entering the Eastern Gotland Basin from the Slupsk Furrow, the bottom intrusion of saline inflow water splits in two: one goes northeast towards the Gotland Deep, and second moves southeast towards the Gulf of Gdansk. An intensive mesoscale cyclonic eddy carrying the inflow water is generated just east of the Slupsk Furrow with the inflow pulse. A number of smaller cyclones with boluses of the inflow water are formed in the permanent halocline along the saline intrusion pathway to the Gotland Deep. Following Spall and Price [J. Phys. Oceanogr. 28 (1998) 1598], the cyclones are suggested to form by the adjustment of the high potential vorticity inflow water column to a low potential vorticity environment.     

新一代车辆标准化的综合性和前瞻性

俄罗斯正在研制新一代车辆并进行车辆检修制度的改革。本文提出标准化工作的前瞻性和综合性,要求车辆与其部件具有等寿命、装卸和调车机械应适应车辆的性能等,这样在铁路行业就会产生巨大的经济效益。     

Urban form,travel time,and cost relationships with tour complexity and mode choice

The primary purpose of this study was to investigate how relative associations between travel time, costs, and land use patterns where people live and work impact modal choice and trip chaining patterns in the Central Puget Sound (Seattle) region. By using a tour-based modeling framework and highly detailed land use and travel data, this study attempts to add detail on the specific land use changes necessary to address different types of travel, and to develop a comparative framework by which the relative impact of travel time and urban form changes can be assessed. A discrete choice modeling framework adjusted for demographic factors and assessed the relative effect of travel time, costs, and urban form on mode choice and trip chaining characteristics for the three tour types. The tour based modeling approach increased the ability to understand the relative contribution of urban form, time, and costs in explaining mode choice and tour complexity for home and work related travel. Urban form at residential and employment locations, and travel time and cost were significant predictors of travel choice. Travel time was the strongest predictor of mode choice while urban form the strongest predictor of the number of stops within a tour. Results show that reductions in highway travel time are associated with less transit use and walking. Land use patterns where respondents work predicted mode choice for mid day and journey to work travel.

Prediction of fatigue life and estimation of its reliability on the parts of an air suspension system

Air suspension systems have been implemented in various commercial vehicles, such as buses and special purpose trucks, because of the comfortable ride and easy height control. An evaluation of the durability of vehicle parts has been required for service life and safety starting in the early stages of design. The cyclic load applied to the vehicle can cause fatigue failure of parts, such as the suspension frame. This paper presents a method to predict the fatigue life of the suspension frame at the design stage of the air suspension system used in a heavy-duty vehicle. To estimate the fatigue life using the SN method, the Dynamic Stress Time History (DSTH) is necessary for the part of interest. DSTH can be obtained from the results of the flexible body dynamic analysis using the Belgian road simulation and the Modal Stress Recovery (MSR) method. Furthermore, the reliability of the predicted fatigue life can be evaluated by considering the variations in material properties. The probability and distribution of the expected life cycle can be obtained using experimental design with a minimum number of simulations. The advantage of using statistical methods to evaluate the life cycle is the ability to predict replacement time and the probability of failure of mass-produced parts. This paper proposes a rapid and simple method that can be effectively applied to the design of vehicle parts.     

自动驾驶如何重构汽车产业价值链

正关于自动驾驶发展进程的预测,业内普遍认同的观点是:自动驾驶汽车将在2025年前后开始呈现爆发式增长;到2035年,人类社会道路上行驶的车辆将有50%实现自动驾驶,届时自动驾驶整车及相关设备、应用的收入规模总计将超过5 000亿美元。1产品定位——从简单的交通工具转变为移动多用途空间无人驾驶首先转变的将是汽车产品自身的定位。在自动驾驶技术成为主流的时代,系统基本上     

Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988–1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.     

EH200型直流供电电力机车的开发

介绍EH200型直流供电电力机车的开发.为证实机车性能满足基本要求,至2001年6月完成了样机试验,并从2001年7月至2002年3月牵引列车进行了运营.通过这些试验和运营,证实该种机车能满足规定的性能,包括与地面设施的匹配.     

联想的教训

过去几个月中，中国消费品市场发生了巨大的变化，新出台的规定承诺将大力改变消费品的交易环境。自今年六月起，外国公司可以在中国建立全面运营的外商独资企业，从事商品的采购和转售。