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881.
ABSTRACTThe purpose of maritime accident prediction is to reasonably forecast an accident occurring in the future. In determining the level of maritime traffic management safety, it is important to analyze development trends of existing traffic conditions. Common prediction methods for maritime accidents include regression analysis, grey system models (GM) and exponential smoothing. In this study, a brief introduction is provided that discusses the aforementioned prediction models, including the associated methods and characteristics of each analysis, which form the basis for an attempt to apply a residual error correction model designed to optimize the grey system model. Based on the results, in which the model is verified using two different types of maritime accident data (linear smooth type and random-fluctuation type, respectively), the prediction accuracy and the applicability were validated. A discussion is then presented on how to apply the Markov model as a way to optimize the grey system model. This method, which proved to be correct in terms of prediction accuracy and applicability, is explored through empirical analysis. Although the accuracy of the residual error correction model is usually higher than the accuracy of the original GM (1,1), the effect of the Markov correction model is not always superior to the original GM (1,1). In addition, the accuracy of the former model depends on the characteristics of the original data, the status partition and the determination method for the status transition matrix. 相似文献
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硫化氢是一种有毒有害气体,隧道穿越的地层中含有硫化氢,不仅威胁着施工人员的身体健康及生命安全,也影响着以后的运营安全。结合玉峰山隧道含硫化氢地层的施工实践,介绍该种地层的概况、硫化氢气体的特点和危害、处治总体思路、施工废水处理方法等,对具体施工技术措施,包括加强通风、预先钻孔排放、注浆封闭、自动检测报警等进行了详细阐述,为含硫化氢气地段的隧道施工积累了经验。 相似文献
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基于三元构件之斜拉桥合理成桥状态确定的思想,给出刚性支承连续梁法和最小弯曲能量法确定自锚式悬索桥合理成桥索力的思路,讨论落架方式对成桥索力的影响,并以佛山平胜大桥为例,进行实桥分析计算。 相似文献
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This paper studies the assignment of long-distance passenger traffic on a highway corridor network. First, we propose a traditional model for the long-distance traffic assignment considering interactions with local commuter traffic. It addresses the effect of local networks on highway corridors. An iterative algorithm is developed to solve for the exact solution. Then, to address the potential computational issues that arise therein, a decomposition method is proposed by introducing a new concept of corridor elasticity. An assignment procedure for long-distance passenger traffic is developed accordingly. Numerical tests show that the proposed decomposition method makes significant improvements in computational performance at a small loss of optimality. This decomposition method well approximates the exact assignment from the traditional formulation, especially when the highway corridors are near-saturation. The proposed decomposition method appears practical for application. 相似文献
890.
This paper provides guidance for an optimal and reasonable dry port layout for the port of Dalian in China. We present a two-phase framework on the location of dry ports, which solves the selection of candidate inland cities and optimal dry port location choice, respectively. Fuzzy C-Means Clustering is applied to select alternative cities in the vast hinterland of the seaport of Dalian, with a view to identify evaluation factors that affect the location selection decision. A cost-minimisation linear programming solution is proposed, with the aid of a genetic algorithm, to choose the optimal location as well as capacity level among the candidate inland cities. 相似文献