Analysis of cost estimation disclosure in environmental impact statements for surface transportation projects

Reliability in cost estimates in publicly funded projects is more important today than ever with increased governmental funding to infrastructure projects and associated accountability requirements, but surface transportation projects, large and small, in the United States have a legacy of cost overruns. The problems with these overruns start with the cost estimation process before projects begin. Studies have shown that early cost estimations reflect best-case scenarios rather than realistic expectations, and have attributed technical, economic, psychological, and political reasons for underestimation. The primary objectives of this research were to determine how costs have been presented and updated in environmental impact statements, to identify endemic technical problems with cost estimation during the environmental review of surface transportation projects, and to develop recommendations for improving cost estimation and disclosure. Cost estimation methods were analyzed from the documents of 100 projects, including draft environmental impact statements, final environmental impact statements, and records of decision. The study concluded that the lack of guidance on how to include cost estimation in environmental review revealed itself in the level of detail and attention given to estimating costs. Agencies omitted or included various aspects of cost estimation randomly. Professional organizations should fill the gap of the need for specific guidance to cost estimation for environmental review so it can evolve as a state of the practice.     

Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology offering several benefits to the society and causing significant changes in travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This study is an effort to quantify the effect of different drivers on the adoption timing of AVs. To this end, we develop an innovation diffusion model in which individuals’ propensities to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes influence from a desire to innovate and a need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are influential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more influenced by word of mouth.     

Discretionary activity location choice: in-home or out-of-home?

This paper examines the location choice associated with discretionary activities (in-home vs. out-of-home). These substitution patterns are important in terms of travel demand as in-home activities do not necessitate travel while out-of-home activities incur travel. Mixed logit models are estimated using an activity dataset (2003 CHASE data) to analyze the factors associated with this choice at the individual activity-level. Results suggest that the attributes of an activity significantly contribute to understanding the likelihood of engaging in out-of-home activities. Activity type interaction terms reveal the varying influence that socio-demographics, activity attributes and travel have over four different activity types modeled. The results reveal that the location choice (in-home vs. out-of-home) is sensitive to travel characteristics. As the travel time and cost increases, an individual is less likely to engage in an activity out-of-home. Compared to passive and social activities, the location of active activities is more sensitive to changes in travel attributes.     

3-D computational method of wave loads on turret moored FPSO tankers

A three-dimensional method of calculating wave loads of turret moored FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) tankers is presented. The linearized restoring forces acting on the ship hull by the mooring system are calculated according to the catenary theory, which are expressed as the function of linear stiffness coefficients and the displacements of the upper ends of mooring chains. The hydrodynamic coefficients of the ship are calculated by the three-dimensional potential flow theory of the linear hydrodynamic problem for ships with a low forward speed. The equations of ship motions are established with the effect of the restoring forces from the mooring system included as linear stiffness coefficients. The equations of motions are solved in frequency domain, and the responses of wave-induced motions and loads on the ship can be obtained. A computer program based on this method has been developed, and some calculation examples are illustrated. Analysis results show that the method can give satisfying prediction of wave loads.     

Simulation of the mean zero-up-crossing wave period using artificial neural networks trained with a simulated annealing algorithm

The aim of this work was to develop a predictive model to forecast the mean zero-up-crossing wave periods (T _z ) for 3-hourly sea states at a location in the Pacific using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Seven multilayer ANNs were trained with a simulated annealing algorithm. The output of each trained ANN was used to estimate each of the seven parameters of a new distribution called the hepta-parameter spline proposed for the conditional distribution of T _z , given some mean zero-up-crossing wave periods and significant wave heights. After estimating the parameters of the distribution, the model was used to simulate and predict future values of T _z . Forecasting a sea state and developing the joint distribution of sea state characteristics with the help of the simulated characteristics are also discussed in this article.     

The precautionary principle in maritime affairs

Since the 1980s, the precautionary principle has been drawing more and more international attention. This became particularly clear during the series of Conferences on the Protection of the North Sea, which addressed marine environmental protection, and initiated the application of the principle into maritime affairs. Although a unified concept of the precautionary principle is lacking, some typical formulations have been concluded in regional treaties and international documents, and components of the principle can be summarised (Part I and Part II). The precautionary principle has been adopted by international documents involving different fields of law of the sea, and been addressed by international courts and tribunals (Part III). While the precautionary principle is still not part of customary international law (Part IV), its increasing level of worldwide acceptance suggests that it will become a customary international law in the future.     

Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.     

Intrazonal or interzonal? Improving intrazonal travel forecast in a four-step travel demand model

Transportation - Conventional four-step travel demand models, used by most metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), state departments of transportation, and local planning agencies, are the...     

Study on J-integral with SENB specimensin a condenser material

A series of tests was performed with three-point single-edge-notched-bend (SENB) specimens in a condenser material (Titanium alloy). Results show that the J-integral values of welded joint and HAZ are obviously smaller than those of the base metal. It signifies that the welding process can result in a reduced toughness of Titanium alloy and the effect of crack orientation on toughness value is not negligible for engineering applications. Besides, the J-integral values of L-T direction specimens are much higher than those of LS ones. The J-integral values of rolled ring are: J_(C-R)>J_(C-L)>J_(L-R).     

Numerical simulation of three-dimensional breaking waves

Three-dimensional (3D) wave breaking around bodies of complex geometry has been numerically investigated by use of two types of Navier-Stokes solvers, namely the finite-difference and the finite-volume methods employing rectangular and curvilinear coordinate systems, respectively. Both methods employ the density-function technique to capture the free surface location and can cope with complicated free surface configurations such as breaking waves. The accuracy of the density-function method is examined through the comparison with experimental results, and it is confirmed to be satisfactory when the grid spacing and the time increment are sufficiently small. New computational methods are applied to several problems including 3D breaking waves around ships and wave diffraction around offshore structures. The computed results show good agreement with experimental results indicating that wave breaking phenomena are successfully simulated. The qualitative accuracy, however, could be improved by including the dissipating effect of breaking waves.