An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation

Risk analysis in seaports plays an increasingly important role in ensuring port operation reliability, maritime transportation safety and supply chain distribution resilience. However, the task is not straightforward given the challenges, including that port safety is affected by multiple factors related to design, installation, operation and maintenance and that traditional risk assessment methods such as quantitative risk analysis cannot sufficiently address uncertainty in failure data. This paper develops an advanced Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach through incorporating Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Networks (FRBN) to evaluate the criticality of the hazardous events (HEs) in a container terminal. The rational use of the Degrees of Belief (DoB) in a fuzzy rule base (FRB) facilitates the implementation of the new method in Container Terminal Risk Evaluation (CTRE) in practice. Compared to conventional FMEA methods, the new approach integrates FRB and BN in a complementary manner, in which the former provides a realistic and flexible way to describe input failure information while the latter allows easy updating of risk estimation results and facilitates real-time safety evaluation and dynamic risk-based decision support in container terminals. The proposed approach can also be tailored for wider application in other engineering and management systems, especially when instant risk ranking is required by the stakeholders to measure, predict and improve their system safety and reliability performance.     

A new hybrid terrain coverage method for underwater robotic exploration

It is well known that it is difficult to explore underwater terrains using an autonomous underwater vehicle due to the varieties and complexities of underwater terrain elements. Since conventional underwater terrain coverage techniques are usually based on the assumption that the underwater surface is planar, they generate an unnecessary exploration path especially on steep sloped surfaces of ocean basins. This paper proposes a new type of coverage technique, the hybrid terrain coverage framework (HTCF), which considers various surface conditions in three-dimensional environments and generates an efficient exploration path for all environments. The HTCF incorporates a planar terrain coverage algorithm, a spiral path terrain coverage algorithm, and a hybrid decision module to recognize and select the most suitable technique depending on the sloped surface variations. Simulation results show that the proposed HTCF is more efficient than the conventional terrain coverage algorithm in terms of the energy consumption of the underwater vehicle.     

Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.     

CFD-based method of determining form factor <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis> for different ship types and different drafts

The value of form factor k at different drafts is important in predicting full-scale total resistance and speed for different types of ships. In the ITTC community, most organizations predict form factor k using a low-speed model test. However, this method is problematic for ships with bulbous bows and transom. In this article, a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)-based method is introduced to obtain k for different type of ships at different drafts, and a comparison is made between the CFD method and the model test. The results show that the CFD method produces reasonable k values. A grid generating method and turbulence model are briefly discussed in the context of obtaining a consistent k using CFD.     

Blue growth and ocean governance—how to balance the use and the protection of the seas

The economic value of the oceans and maritime industry is strongly gaining in importance. As the oceans are very large and particularly sensitive ecosystems, which need to be preserved, a balance between the use and the protection of the seas has to be found. On this issue, the paper presents some thoughts starting with a brief analysis of what to understand by maritime industry which is labeled as blue economy, and a recapitulation of the main threats for the marine environment, caused by blue economy. After that, some noteworthy prerequisites and criteria for finding a sound balance between the use and the protection of the seas will be highlighted, especially the need for sustainable ocean governance is put to discussion.     

非结构化网格浸入边界法的流固耦合数值模拟

This paper presents an improved unstructured grid immersed boundary method. The advantages of both immersed boundary method and body fitted grids which are generated by unstructured grid technology are used to enhance the computation efficiency of fluid structure interaction in complex domain. The Navier-Stokes equation was discretized spacially with collocated finite volume method and Euler implicit method in time domain. The rigid body motion was simulated by immersed boundary method in which the fluid and rigid body interface interaction was dealt with VOS (volume of solid) method. A new VOS calculation method based on graph was presented in which both immersed boundary points and cross points were collected in arbitrary order to form a graph. The method is verified with flow past oscillating cylinder.     

周期性波动管流的压降研究

Experiments were conducted to study characteristics of flow when flow is fluctuating. The experimental results showed a phase difference between the flow rate and the pressure drop fluctuations. This phase difference between the fluctuating flow rate and pressure drop was analyzed for laminar flow. Analysis showed that the phase difference changes with the period of the flow fluctuation, the pipe radius, the density and the dynamic viscosity of the liquid. Fluctuating pipe flow was then numerically simulated. Results of the numerical simulation were compared with theoretical values and experimental results. It was shown that, when the flow rate fluctuates with time as a sine wave, the pressure drop fluctuates with the same periodicity, and there is a phase difference between them.     

结构动力学基于摄动法的高阶非线性随机有限元方法研究

Several algorithms were proposed relating to the development of a framework of the perturbation-based stochastic finite element method (PSFEM) for large variation nonlinear dynamic problems. For this purpose, algorithms and a framework related to SFEM based on the stochastic virtual work principle were studied. To prove the validity and practicality of the algorithms and framework, numerical examples for nonlinear dynamic problems with large variations were calculated and compared with the Monte-Carlo Simulation method. This comparison shows that the proposed approaches are accurate and effective for the nonlinear dynamic analysis of structures with random parameters.     

An empirical model for estimating berth and sailing times of mega container ships

ABSTRACT

We provide two empirical models for calculating the sailing time and berth time of maritime container liner networks to effectively model the ambiguity associated with sea and port contingency for ex-ante decisions of fleet deployment and route planning. The models are based on recorded AIS data of 110 mega vessels including all the operating container mega vessels with a capacity of 16,000 TEU or more during the summer of 2015. The models are able to estimate the sailing time (with R² of 0.974) and the berth time (with R² of 0.895) without knowledge of any operational-level explanatory variables. The models are validated against the published East Asia–North Europe services. Moreover, the study reveals that vessel operators adopt different berthing and sailing strategies even under the same conditions.     

The enforcement of shipping standards under UNCLOS

This article discusses the enforcement of shipping standards, with a particular focus on Part XII of UNCLOS. Section 6 of Part XII contains the only comprehensive set of vessel-related enforcement provisions in the Convention, but the Part’s scope is limited to “the preservation and protection of the marine environment.” Therefore, not all shipping standards fall clearly within Part XII’s ambit, including those centered on safety, security, and crewing considerations. The enforcement provisions of Section 6 are favorable to flag states and their vessels, and Section 7 contains a number of safeguards for their benefit, so it is in the interests of these parties to have coastal state enforcement governed by Part XII. However, the ability of coastal states to establish and enforce shipping standards that apply within the territorial sea extends to more than just environmental matters. The result is that different standards give rise to different enforcement powers, depending on the maritime zone in which a vessel is located, even if those standards arise from the same international agreement. It is suggested that to remedy these problems, UNCLOS would need to be amended in order to provide a comprehensive enforcement regime for the enforcement of shipping standards.