Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.     

Study of in-vehicle route guidance systems for improvement of right-side drivers in the Japanese traffic system

A country can adopt one of two standards for traffic flow — cars may travel on the left or right side of the road. When drivers who are accustomed to driving on the right side of the road drive on the left side, and vice versa, the mental workload is likely increased due to the driver’s unfamiliarity with a new language, the position of the driver’s seat, different driving directions, and other factors that differ from those of their home country. One method of doing this is to make sure that the in-vehicle route guidance information (RGI) is not overly complicated — thereby assisting drivers in improving their safety. Consequently, the aim of this study was to facilitate mobility and improve safety for natural right-side drivers driving temporarily in left-side traffic. In this study, driver behavior and workload — given various types of RGI — were evaluated in a driving simulator with a variety of prescribable test conditions. This research was composed of two experiments. In the first, various types of in-vehicle route guidance systems were tested and evaluated in terms of their characteristics and associated driver behaviors (while driving). In the second experiment, systemic factors and effectiveness were evaluated by two combined systems, arrow and map-type information, based on the results of the first experiment. In light of both experiments, the various types of route guidance systems were discussed in terms of their results. A navigation system was proposed to alleviate some of the secondary tasks such as route selection.     

Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 718 for Automotive Engine Materials

This study was carried out to investigate the creep life at the high temperature of the Alloy 718 for automotive engine components using the initial strain parameter method (ISPM). Creep tests have performed at elevated temperatures in the range of 550 oC to 700 oC in this work. We also carried out constant stress creep tests. The initial strains were measured during 1 minute after loading. Both the creep stress and rupture time depend on the initial strain. We calculated the creep life of Alloy 718 by using the creep life prediction equations obtained from the ISPM. Then, we compared the creep life predicted by the ISPM to the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP). The experimental rupture time and the calculated rupture time by using the ISPM agreed with a confidence level of 95 %. The creep life predicted by using the ISPM was in very good agreement with the creep life predicted using the LMP method.     

Mathematical model validated by a crash test for studying the occupant’s kinematics and dynamics in a cars’ frontal collision

The aim of the paper was to determine the kinematic parameters that influence the occupant injury risk through a mathematical model. The developed model is a 2D model composed of 4 bodies (2 vehicles, thorax and head). The head and thorax are interconnected with a rotation joint and a torsion spring meant to stiffen the relative movement between the bodies. The thorax is connected with the vehicle body by a linear spring meant to simulate the seatbelt stiffness. The model was solved using Lagrange principle and the validation of the model was made through a crash test performed using the same initial conditions and comparing the obtained values of the displacement, velocity and acceleration parameters with the ones obtained with the mathematical model. The head and torso were chosen due to the fact that they are the common parts of the body that get injured, especially the head with the change of 80 % to cause fatal injury in car’s frontal collision. Once the model was validated, the stiffness of the seatbelt was modified in order to determine the behavior of the occupant in case of car frontal collisions. When the seatbelt stiffness was reduced, the occupant displacement and velocity increased, while by increasing the stiffness, these parameters decreased. The values of the developed model presented a high degree of similarity with the results obtained from the crash test with an error of 10 %. This model can be used by engineers to easily asses the occupant injury risk in case of vehicle frontal collisions.     

Flexural gravity wave generation by initial disturbances in the presence of current

The effect of uniform current on the generation of flexural gravity waves resulting from initial disturbances at a point was analyzed in two dimensions. The problem was formulated as an initial boundary value problem under the assumptions of the linearized theory of water waves. By direct application of the Laplace transform and then the Fourier transform, explicit expressions for the velocity potential and free surface elevation were obtained in integral forms; these were evaluated asymptotically for large distances and times by the application of the method of the stationary phase to obtain the far field behavior of the surface elevations in specific cases. Simple numerical computations were performed to illustrate the effect of uniform current on the surface elevation, wavelength, phase velocity, and group velocity of the flexural gravity waves and on the far field behavior of the progressive waves in two different cases, namely, when there is an initial depression concentrated at the origin and an initial impulse concentrated at the origin.     

Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models

A hybrid approach for eutrophication assessment in estuarine and coastal ecosystems is presented. The ASSETS screening model (http://www.eutro.org) classifies eutrophication status into five classes: High (better), Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad (worse). This model was applied to a dataset from a shallow coastal barrier island system in southwest Europe (Ria Formosa), with a resulting score of Good. A detailed dynamic model was developed for this ecosystem, and the outputs were used to drive the screening model. Four scenarios were run on the research model: pristine, standard (simulates present loading), half and double the current nutrient loading. The Ria Formosa has a short water residence time and eutrophication symptoms are not apparent in the water column. However, benthic symptoms are expressed as excessive macroalgal growth and strong dissolved oxygen fluctuations in the tide pools. The standard simulation results showed an ASSETS grade identical to the field data application. The application of the screening model to the other scenario outputs showed the responsiveness of ASSETS to changes in pressure, state and response, scoring a grade of High under pristine conditions, Good for half the standard scenario and Moderate for double the present loadings. The use of this hybrid approach allows managers to test the outcome of measures against a set of well-defined metrics for the evaluation of state. It additionally provides a way of testing and improving the pressure component of ASSETS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that sub-sampling the output of the research model at a monthly scale, typical for the acquisition of field data, may significantly affect the outcome of the screening model, by overlooking extreme events such as occasional night-time anoxia in tide pools.     

Improving the predictiveness of the quasi-d combustion model for spark ignition engines with flexible intake systems

Fast and predictive simulation tools are prerequisites for pursuing simulation based engine control development. A particularly attractive tradeoff between speed and fidelity is achieved with a co-simulation approach that marries a commercial gas dynamic code WAVE™ with an in-house quasi-dimensional combustion model. Gas dynamics are critical for predicting the effect of wave action in intake and exhaust systems, while the quasi-D turbulent flame entrainment model provides sensitivity to variations of composition and turbulence in the cylinder. This paper proposes a calibration procedure for such a tool that maximizes its range of validity and therefore achieves a fully predictive combustion model for the analysis of a high degree of freedom (HDOF) engines. Inclusion of a charge motion control device in the intake runner presented a particular challenge, since anything altering the flow upstream of the intake valve remains “invisible” to the zero-D turbulence model applied to the cylinder control volume. The solution is based on the use of turbulence multiplier and scheduling of its value. Consequently, proposed calibration procedure considers two scalar variables (dissipation constant C _β and turbulence multiplier C _M ), and the refinements of flame front area maps to capture details of the spark-plug design, i.e. the actual distance between the spark and the surface of the cylinder head. The procedure is demonstrated using an SI engine system with dual-independent cam phasing and charge motion control valves (CMCV) in the intake runner. A limited number of iterations led to convergence, thanks to a small number of adjustable constants. After calibrating constants at the reference operating point, the predictions are validated for a range of engine speeds, loads and residual fractions.     

Sensitivity analysis of the probabilistic damage stability regulations for RoPax vessels

In the light of the newly developed harmonised probabilistic damage stability regulations, set to come into force in 2009, this article presents a systematic and thorough analysis of the sensitivity of the Attained Subdivision Index with reference to a wide range of related design parameters. The sensitivity of the probabilistic regulations was investigated for a typical large RoPax vessel, with variation of parameters, such as the number, positioning and local optimisation of transverse bulkheads; the presence and position of longitudinal bulkheads below the main vehicle deck; the presence of side casings; and the height of the main deck and double bottom. The effects of water on deck and of operational parameters (draught, centre of gravity and trim) were also investigated. The results of the study, presented in graphical form, can provide valuable assistance to the designer when determining subdivision characteristics at the very early stage of the design process, resulting in optimal, efficient and safe ships.     

Fast direction of arrival algorithm based on vector-sensor arrays using wideband sources

An acoustic vector sensor （AVS） can capture more information than a conventional acoustic pressure sensor （APS）. As a result, more output channels are required when multiple AVS are formed into arrays, making processing the data stream computationally intense. This paper proposes a new algorithm based on the propagator method for wideband coherent sources that eliminates eigen-decomposition in order to reduce the computational burden. Data from simulations and lake trials showed that the new algorithm is valid： it resolves coherent sources, breaks left/right ambiguity, and allows inter element spacing to exceed a half-wavelength.     

严峻问题

今年关于太平洋航线有两个不确定因素,即美国进口量增长将会大大放缓,同时美国出口量会继续增加.因此,几乎所有其他的问题都是不确定的:进口量是否会增长还是会减少?