中外航道设计中波浪富裕水深确定方法对比

通过对比国内外航道设计规范中波浪富裕水深的确定方法,系统分析影响波浪富裕水深的主要因素,结合全球波浪要素的分布情况讨论各国方法的适用范围,并通过实例计算对波浪要素的影响进行对比分析。结果表明,各国规范大多以波高、船浪夹角、波周期为自变量来确定波浪富裕水深,波浪富裕水深与波高成正比,最不利船浪夹角通常是90°或45°左右,波浪富裕水深通常会随波浪周期的增大而增大,当船舶固有周期接近遭遇波浪周期时有极大值。     

Interactive stated choice surveys: a study of air travel behaviour

Stated preference (SP) experiments are becoming an increasingly popular survey methodology for investigating travel behaviour. Nevertheless, some evidence suggests that SP experiments do not mirror decisions in real markets. With an increasing number of real world decisions made using the internet, an opportunity exists to improve the realism of the SP counterparts of such choices by aligning the choice environment with such online portals. In this paper, we illustrate the benefits of such an approach in the context of air travel surveys. Our survey is modelled on the interface and functionality of an online travel agent (OTA). As with a real OTA, many ticket options are presented. Sort tools allow the options to be reordered, search tools allow options to be removed from consideration, and a further tool allows attributes to be hidden and shown. Extensive use of these tools is made by the 462 respondents. A traditional SP component was also completed by the respondents. Our exploratory analysis as well as random utility model estimation results confirm not only that respondents seem to engage more actively with the interactive survey, but also that the resulting data allows for better performance in model estimation compared to a more conventional SP experiment. These results have implications for the study of other complex travel choices where interactive surveys may similarly be preferable to standard approaches.     

琼州海峡船舶雾航安全管理

船舶在雾中航行,由于能见度低,瞭望、定位困难,极易发生海上交通事故,造成人员、船舶的经济损失及海洋环境的污染。据统计,在雾航中发生的船舶碰撞事故占整个海上碰撞事故总数的70%以上,因此,对雾航安全的研究一直是航运界关注的重点。琼州海峡位于海南岛与雷州半岛之间,是我国南海沟通北部湾和华南沿海的一个主要海峡通道,同时也     

基于视觉识别的线控制动压力滑模控制

制动安全是车辆主动安全的关键技术之一.制动决策和执行器控制是影响线控制动系统性能的两个主要因素.路面自适应性和控制器鲁棒性分别对制动决策和执行器控制有着重要影响,制约着线控制动系统的发展.本文中以一种液压调控的线控制动系统为基础,针对路面自适应性和控制器鲁棒性问题,提出一种双层结构的制动系统控制器,上层采用计算机视觉的...     

Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling

This study reviews the 50-year history of travel demand forecasting models, concentrating on their accuracy and relevance for public decision-making. Only a few studies of model accuracy have been performed, but they find that the likely inaccuracy in the 20-year forecast of major road projects is ±30 % at minimum, with some estimates as high as ±40–50 % over even shorter time horizons. There is a significant tendency to over-estimate traffic and underestimate costs, particularly for toll roads. Forecasts of transit costs and ridership are even more uncertain and also significantly optimistic. The greatest knowledge gap in US travel demand modeling is the unknown accuracy of US urban road traffic forecasts. Modeling weaknesses leading to these problems (non-behavioral content, inaccuracy of inputs and key assumptions, policy insensitivity, and excessive complexity) are identified. In addition, the institutional and political environments that encourage optimism bias and low risk assessment in forecasts are also reviewed. Major institutional factors, particularly low local funding matches and competitive grants, confound scenario modeling efforts and dampen the hope that technical modeling improvements alone can improve forecasting accuracy. The fundamental problems are not technical but institutional: high non-local funding shares for large projects warp local perceptions of project benefit versus costs, leading to both input errors and political pressure to fund projects. To deal with these issues, the paper outlines two different approaches. The first, termed ‘hubris’, proposes a multi-decade effort to substantially improve model forecasting accuracy over time by monitoring performance and improving data, methods and understanding of travel, but also by deliberately modifying the institutional arrangements that lead to optimism bias. The second, termed ‘humility’, proposes to openly quantify and recognize the inherent uncertainty in travel demand forecasts and deliberately reduce their influence on project decision-making. However to be successful either approach would require monitoring and reporting accuracy, standards for modeling and forecasting, greater model transparency, educational initiatives, coordinated research, strengthened ethics and reduction of non-local funding ratios so that localities have more at stake.     

On the use of mathematical programming in the evaluation of transport policies

This paper focuses on the evaluation processes by which decisions regarding transportation alternatives can be assisted. A multidimensional approach usually called multiple criteria decision making is required to represent the complexity of transportation policy and systems.

The multiple criteria decision making techniques can be divided into two groups. The first is based on a ranking scheme approach and the second on a mathematical programming approach.

A multiple objective mathematical programming procedure known as Goal Programming is presented. The authors examined the use of that procedure in real transportation problems.

The results suggest that multiple objective mathematical programming techniques in general do not appear to be appropriate in transportation policy analysis involving mutually exclusive alternatives. Their use can be limited to special cases in the private sector.     

Optimal traffic assignment to urban streets with air pollution consideration

Traffic assignment is usually determined solely on the basis of minimum travel time through the network. The present study on traffic assignment has taken into account not only traffic performance but also air quality over the street. A simple model of highway air pollution is developed by considering macroscopic material balance of polluted air mass over a segment of a highway that passes through an urban area, A new traffic assignment scheme has been developed based on the air pollution model. The optimal traffic assignment obtained by the new scheme is affected significantly by meteorological conditions.     

Building Philippine Local Government Capacity for Coastal Resource Management

The responsibility for managing coral reefs and other coastal resources was largely devolved to coastal municipalities and cities in the Philippines in 1991 with the passage of the Local Government Code. Devolution of powers and responsibilities to local government has paved the way for mainstreaming coastal resource management at the local level. However, the capacity to carry out this mandate has only recently begun to mature as municipalities and cities gain an increased awareness of the importance of coastal resources to communities and economic development. Approaches and strategies to increase local government capacity for coastal resource management are described based on the experiences of the Coastal Resource Management Project of the United States Agency for International Development. Qualitative and quantitative data are used to illustrate the possible impact of these capacity building efforts and to describe the current capacity of local government to undertake coastal resource management. After five years of project implementation, coastal municipalities have increased technical capacity, have allotted financial resources, and have achieved key performance benchmarks in the delivery of coastal resource management as a basic service.     

Design and evaluation of an integrated inventory and transportation system

This paper proposes the adoption of an integrated inventory and transportation system (IITS) to minimize the total costs of inventory and transportation. A non-linear programing is developed by analyzing transportation and inventory costs with one supplier and many retailers in the distribution environment. The paper compares the proposed model with the traditional approach in computing total costs with numerical data. The results indicate that the total costs can be optimized by adopting integrated programing rather than the traditional approach, along with achieving improved customer service levels. In particular, sensitivity analysis is applied to determine the performance of the IITS under various transportation costs, holding costs and shortage costs. It shows that the transportation cost per unit is most sensitive in the proposed model. In this situation, the IITS is more effective for cost saving when set-up cost, holding and shortage costs are high, but is less effective for situations involving high per-unit transportation costs.     

瑞利面波椭圆极化在盾构隧道地层扰动探测中的应用

为解决传统物探方法在城市盾构隧道工程中难以对地层扰动达到较好探测和监测目的，提出了主动源瑞利面波椭圆极化方法. 采用二维有限元数值模拟对实际盾构隧道施工背景下的地层情况进行全波场正演模拟，并对其波场传播、速度频散和椭圆极化频散等特征进行分析；结合工程实例，进一步将椭圆极化方法和传统速度频散方法进行对比研究. 研究结果表明:主动源瑞利面波椭圆极化方法在探测地下介质结构分布及监测地下空洞等异常结构的变化方面具有和传统速度频散方法同样的探测效果，但由于其不需要长大检波器排列，对周围环境震动等噪声抗干扰能力相对较强，因此更适合城市等场地受限和具有一定震动和噪声干扰的环境，从而具有更广阔的应用前景.